Posted on 04/17/2007 12:22:58 PM PDT by pissant
The conventional wisdom about presidential nomination campaigns is almost always wrong. And the pundits' dismissal of former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani's bid for the Republican nomination will not improve their batting average. Even though Giuliani is way ahead of everybody in early primary polls, the experts are already writing Giuliani's obituary.
Some of this spin is wishful thinking by Democrats who don't want to face him in the general election. Other than Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.), he is better known and more popular than anyone running for president, even Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.). And Giuliani has a better chance than any other GOP candidate to turn blue states red. Depending on the Democratic presidential nominee, he could put into play states like New York, New Jersey and California that are normally off-limits to Republicans.
The rap on Giuliani is that he is a great prospect for winning the general election but has almost no chance to win the GOP nod because of his personal history and his stands on issues such as gun control and gay marriage. But there are at least a couple of reasons why he could go all the way and come out of the Republican National Convention in Minnesota as king of the hill.
First, GOP primary voters, especially born-again Christians, are so horrified at the prospect of Clinton becoming president that they would nominate the devil if they thought it would keep her out of the White House. The stronger Clinton becomes in her bid for the Democratic nomination, the better Giuliani will look to the religious fundamentalists on the Republican side who descend on the Iowa caucuses by the busload.
In backing the most electable candidate, Republican voters would be following a long history of calculation and pragmatic voting in presidential primary campaigns. In 2004, Democrats were so eager to block the reelection of President Bush that they voted with their heads for Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.), rather than with their hearts for former Vermont governor Howard Dean.
We may finally get the dream race that everybody wanted in 2000, when then-mayor Giuliani was ready to run against then-first lady Clinton for the U.S. Senate in New York, until fate and the mayor's former wife Donna Hanover intervened.
The other factor that could propel Giuliani to victory in the Republican race is that voters, even primary voters, care more about qualities like leadership and strength than they do about the positions the candidates take on issues. In this context, the reputation for strength that Giuliani built after the Sept. 11 attacks should serve him well in his campaign to win the approval of GOP voters.
To the extent that any single issue will be a factor in voting decisions, national security will trump anything else. No Republican candidate projects the strength that a president needs to stand up to the bad guys like the one who claims that he rid New York City of thugs and saved the city from ruin on the worst day of its proud history.
As Giuliani prepares to officially announce his candidacy, he appears to be softening his position on gays and guns to appeal to the born-again Christian wing of the GOP. He said recently that gun control was good for New York City but might not work nationally. Despite his friendships with gay couples, Giuliani also announced that he was opposed to same-sex marriage. But fudging the issues is a mistake for Giuliani, because renouncing long-held beliefs undermines the reputation he has for strength and integrity.
Democratic activists are afraid of Giuliani, and Republican diehards fear him, as well. But the Bush presidency is slowly sinking into the sunset and Giuliani is the GOP's best bet to hang on to the White House.
(Brad Bannon is president of Bannon Communications Research, a Democratic polling firm in Washington).
Going to make popcorn.Be right back
To me, the title suggests that the writer thinks it is HOPELESS.
Does anyone think that Giuliani is over rated?
If Rudy is the GOP’s only hope, then it is time for them to officially merge with the Democrats and quit even pretending...
Good one. Clearly they had their heads up their... um... "reporting for dootie" chute.
Yeah, I'm gonna believe this guy when he tells us Rudy is the guy the Dems are most scared of.
No one is going to vote for someone who’s name they cannot spell.
Thanks for the post Pissant but I wasn’t planning on posting any Rudy articles today I just didn’t think it would be appropriate and disrespectful since they are the most volatile posts and this is not a day for fighting at all. I’m too saddened by all this and so are most Freepers.
Kinda early to be 'calling' this race, isn't it?
If the article would have ended there, it would have been perfect.
Dammit....I’m still voting for Dewey! The New York Times said he won.....
I don’t even think he deserves rating.
If Rudy is the only hope, the GOP is hosed....
(Brad Bannon is president of Bannon Communications Research, a Democratic polling firm in Washington).
Why should anyone listen to what Comrade Bannon, a Democrap pollster has to say about anything?
you’re such a nice guy!
(/s)
helpin out your enemies.
Sorry I don’t buy it....
Rudy is the GOP’s only hope for losing. This is a Politico piece and they love Democrats.
Grain of salt stuff.
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