Posted on 04/05/2007 8:14:01 AM PDT by Unmarked Package
Latest New Hampshire telephone poll shows Romney's support nearly doubles to 25% to tie McCain; Giuliani trails at 19%
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has rocketed to the top of the field of contenders for the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary crown, running dead even with Arizona Sen. John McCain at 25% each, a new Zogby International telephone poll shows. With Romney’s ascension, the GOP presidential race looks just like the Democratic contest – a three–way battle!
While McCain has held mostly steady at the top of the Republican field in New Hampshire, losing just one point since January, Romney has made the big move up from 13% two months ago. Rudy Giuliani, the former mayor of New York who is the toast of Republican primary voters nationally, finds himself in third place in the Granite State at 19% support, falling slightly from 20% in January to 19% this week.
Fred Thompson, the actor and former senator from Tennessee won 6% support in this latest survey of 502 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters, which was conducted April 2-3, 2007, and contains a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points.
Pollster John Zogby: “Score this as a big week for Mitt Romney. These poll numbers, together with the small increase in Iowa and a huge fund–raising effort, puts him into the top tier and makes him a major player in the race for the GOP nomination. John McCain’s support stays steady and makes him a contender and gives him a boost in an otherwise lackluster week. Move over, Rudy. You’ve got a real race on your hands!”
Romney has a slight edge over McCain among men – 27% support Romney while 25% favor McCain. Giuliani gets 19% support among men. McCain wins support from 25% of women, followed by Romney (23%) and Giuliani (18%).
McCain is the favored candidate among younger respondents – nearly half (48%) of those 18-29 said they would vote for the former war hero–turned senator. There is also strong support for Romney among this age group, as 37% said they would support the former Massachusetts governor. Giuliani gets the most support from those age 30 to 49 at (28%) and leads the field over all other candidates among this age group.
Asked about the strength of support for their candidate, McCain shows a slight edge over the other top candidates – 88% of McCain supporters said their backing was strong, compared to 86% of Romney supporters and 85% of those supporting Giuliani.
|
Republicans in New Hampshire – 2007 |
Apr. 3 |
Jan. 18 |
|
|
|
|
|
Romney |
25% |
13% |
|
McCain |
25% |
26% |
|
Giuliani |
19% |
20% |
|
Hagel |
1% |
3% |
|
Huckabee |
1% |
1% |
|
Hunter |
1% |
1% |
|
Paul |
2% |
1% |
|
Brownback |
<1% |
<1% |
|
Tancredo |
1% |
3% |
|
Fred Thompson |
6% |
-- |
|
Tommy Thompson |
<1% |
-- |
|
Not sure |
17% |
15% |
More than half of respondents (54%) said they were more likely to vote for a candidate who is generally more conservative, while 37% said they would favor a more moderate candidate. Romney is the top choice of those who identify themselves as “conservative” and “very conservative”.
The vast majority respondents (85%) said they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who stands up for what they believe in, regardless if they can win the general election. Younger respondents (age 18 to 29) were more likely than older respondents to favor a candidate who will stand by his or her beliefs – 96% in this age group feel this way, compared to 79% of those age 65 and older. Women (89%) are also more likely than men (82%) to say they would vote for the candidate who puts their beliefs first. Overall, 11% said they would rather have a candidate who can win.
“Actually Taxes and maybe immigration are what they are interested in.”
Both Rudy and McCain are wobbly on immigration.
Another issue for the GOP to commit hari kari over.
“The races were close yes, but there sere so many conservatives who thought there was not enough difference between Bush’s policies on Immigration and that of the dems that they stayed home.
We all learned the hard way. At least I hope the lesson was learned.”
Alas, Bush and the OpenBorders(tm) crowd learned nothing from that fiasco and may fall in the trap of passing a liberal Democrat invite-the-3rd-world-to-your-town-to-become-Dem-voters immigration policy.
“Laura Ingraham is not someone I depend on to pick my president. Rush Limbaugh said Yesterday that Rudy was honest! “
Laura is not picking the president, she’s just speaking the truth about the ones running for it. You *do* understand that Rudy being *honest* about his liberal views doesn’t exactly help him out in this situation. Nobody thinks Rudy is a liar, many of us know he is too liberal on too many issues. Walter Mondale was an honest liberal too, but I’d never vote for him!
that’s okay that’s your preference. What I really mean is I don’t listen to anyone when it comes to voting. I vote who I deem has gotten results in their tenure in office. They used their time and put it to good use - did what they set out to do. That’s my criteria. I can nitpick any politician to death if I wanted to - he’s not this, he’s not that. He doesn’t support this - he doesn’t support that. I want to know what they did while in office. Promises made on the campaign trail are NEVER kept! There is a big difference about what you promise while on the campaign and what you do when you are in office like we have seen in every president. That’s why I look back to see what they have done.
A combined 69% support Rudy McRomney is more evidence that the ‘base’ isn’t nearly as alienated by these three as many on FR are.
I think you hit the nail on the head with that one. The rest of the country is perfectly happy with these three.
Pat Buchanan raised the level of debate the first time he ran, this was before he went off the deep end on a lot of issues.
I do not believe it was true of Keyes, nor would it be true of Tancredo.
And yes I am dismissing Gingrich as not being able to compete effectively for the nomination. I LIKE Newt Gingrich. One of the reasons I’m a conservative today was from watching Gingrich, Vin Weber, Connie Mack and others on CSPAN in the early 80’s. Heck I spent 6 years living in the Atlanta area and for four of them Newt was my Rep.
But Newt has amassed too much personal baggage and was too successfully vilified (wrongly) during his tenure as Speaker.
Newt is a great guy and when he talks conservatives should always listen.
“Newt is a great guy and when he talks conservatives should always listen.”
I agree with all you say and hope Gingrich and Thompson both run. It would be great if they did. Gingrich in particular could help sharpen the debate and be a good expounder of a slid conservative platform.
The discounting should come in terms of polls numbers though. Polls are unreliable as is and an early poll of a non-candidate is really meaningless imho.
“Romney’s the real deal. He will win the nomination in a walk....Fred or no Fred.”
Not going to happen. People like me won’t vote for a Mormon unless the sun goes cold and we get our own planet. There are enough of us out there that Romney is a non starter.
I will not vote for someone who believes they are on the path to becoming God.
Just calling it like it is.
“Romney’s a Mormon and a flip flopping baby killer. True conservatives will stick with Duncan Hines or commit suicide.”
Here is one of your fellow Rudybots personally attacking other candidates. You know, what you said your side doesn’t do.
Gosh, you're as dumb as I first thought. No wonder you're so easy to ignore. Zarf is not a Rudy supporter, but carry on.
Hunter's a ghost, Rudy's fumbling the ball, Fred is dead. Romney's in.....he the smartest one of the bunch.. 8 posted on 04/05/2007 1:28:01 PM EDT by zarf
http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1812603/posts?page=8#8
Zarf has been all over the map - I looked at his history and found plenty of pro-Rudy posts.
If I’m so dumb, how come you can’t respond to the citations I provided you?
“Gosh, you’re as dumb as I first thought. “
More personal attacks.
I thought your side didn’t do this?
To quote you, “...but that’s all you’ve got.”
Oh, you mean the citations I had to ask for and then you called me a Rutard? Those citations? I stopped reading after the Rutard comments. I don’t respond to that kind of rudeness so you’ll just have to forgive me if I put you back on ignore.
There’s probably something to that.
Maybe McCain will finally learn that stabbing President Bush in the back was not the brightest thing to do especially with a war on and an election coming up.
“And I don’t want to spam his thread.”
What a joke. You’re spamming this whole message board by supporting that liberal for President. Look, I can write a tagline in all caps, too!
If he wins the nomination will you vote for the Democrat or third party?
“Oh, you mean the citations I had to ask for and then you called me a Rutard? “
You HAD to ask for them? You didn’t ask for them nicely. That is a gross misrepresentation, but about par.
Here’s what you said.
““Maybe it’s your “facts” that are mushy. Nothing you wrote is sourced, ace.””
That’s a little different than “the citations I had to ask for” as you claim now!!!
I didn’t call you a Rutard, either. Another misrepresentation, and also misplaced in the time domain. On post 89 I said,
“My reply to this post made my FR homepage. I am starting a collection of Rutarded posts and rebuttals. You are the first winner.”
That was AFTER you accused me of making up the first post, and also after I posted a point by point source of what you dismissed.
Here’s the thread for anyone interested
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1811569/posts?
See #87 - what Peach has yet to respond to!
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1811569/posts?page=87#87
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