Nuclear Iran?

Hillsdale College/Imprimis ^ | April 2007 | Victor Davis Hanson

[The Pack Knight]

It would be regrettable should Taiwan, Japan, South Korea or Germany go nuclear—but not nearly as catastrophic as when Pakistan did so, which is what allows it today to give sanctuary to bin Laden and the planners of 9/11 with impunity. The former governments operate with a free press, open elections and free speech, and thus their warmaking is subject to a series of checks and balances. Pakistan is a strongman’s heartbeat away from becoming an Islamic theocracy. And while democratic India is often volatile in relations with its Islamic neighbor, the world is not nearly as worried about its nuclear arsenal as it is about autocratic Pakistan’s.

An excellent point that isn't brought up enough. A nuclear Pakistan means that it's very possible that what we've seen so far in Afghanistan, Iraq, and, yes, in Manhattan and Arlington, is only a small taste of what's to come in our "Long War".

Fourth, we should announce in advance that we don’t want any bases in Iran; don’t want its oil; and won’t send American infantry there. That would preempt the tired charges of imperialism and colonialism.

The highlighted portion would be a mistake. If the 90s proved anything, it was the ineffectiveness of air power alone against any but the weakest regimes. We may not want a long occupation like we've had in Iraq, but, without infantry, it'll be hard to accomplish anything but good P.R. for the Iranians.