It's far too soon to tell how Iran Hostage Crisis II will play out. See timeline of a similar previous incident *here*. Commentary *here*.
It will be remembered that the Spain bombings led directly to the ouster of our Spanish ally and the election of enemy appeasers.
Just so. It also needs to be remembered that after the Social Democratic Party of Finland gained an absolute majority in the Parliament of Finland after the general elections of 1916, resulted in the pendulum swinging back in the elections of October 1917, appointed a purely conservative cabinet. The *Sore Loserman* response of the SDs was to create a Workers' Revolutionary Council which voted by a narrow majority to seize power on 16 November at 5 a.m. The supreme revolutionary “Executive Committee”, however, was unable to recruit enough members to carry out the plan and had to call the proposed revolution off at 7 p.m. the same day. The incident, "the shortest revolution", effectively split the Social Democrats in two, a majority supporting parliamentary means and a minority demanding revolution, not very dissimilar to the divisions that America's Democratic-Socialist party now is exhibiting. The repercussions of the event had a lasting effect on the future of the movement, with several powerful leaders staking positions within the party- which again, doesn't sound so far removed from today's jockeying for the Democratic nomination for 2008.
During the strike associated with the election of 16 November 1917, however, radical elements of the Workers' Security Guards executed several political opponents in the main cities of southern Finland, and the first armed clashes between Protection Guards and Workers' Guards broke out, with thirty-four reported casualties.
The final escalation towards war began in early January 1918. The most radical Workers' Security Guards from Helsinki, Kotka and Turku changed their names to Red Guards and convinced those leaders of the Social Democrats who wavered between peace and war to support revolution. The Workers' Guards were officially renamed the Red Guards at the end of the same month, under the command of Ali Aaltonen, a former Russian army officer, who had been appointed in December. At the same time, the Svinhufvud Senate and the Parliament decided on 12 January 1918 to create a strong police authority, an initiative which the Workers' Security Guards saw as a step towards legalizing the White Guards. When the Senate renamed the White Guards the Finnish White Army, the Red Guards refused to recognise the title. On 15 January, Carl Gustaf Emil Mannerheim, like Aaltonen a former officer in the Russian army, was appointed supreme commander of the White Guards. He located his headquarters in Vaasa, while Aaltonen located his in Helsinki.
The first serious battles were fought during 17–20 January in Karelia, in the south-eastern corner of Finland, mainly for control of the town of Viipuri and to win the race for weapons. The White Order to engage was issued on 25 January; the Red Order of Revolution was issued on 26 January. The next day, the White Guards attacked trains carrying a large shipment of weapons from Russia, as promised to the Reds by Lenin. Official hostilities began in the late evening of 27 January, followed by disarmament of Russian garrisons in Ostrobothnia during the early hours of 28 January. A symbolic date for the start of the war could be 26 January, when a group of Reds climbed the tower of Helsinki Workers' Hall and lit a red lantern to mark the start of the second major rebellion in the history of Finland.
And the Finnish Civil War was on, with the Red forces numbering 100,000 to 140,000 during the course of the war, whereas the Whites mustered at most about 70,000. Both sides included foreign volunteers, some foreign troops and others as individuals. The fighting continued until 14–15 May, when a small number of Russian troops retreated from a coastal artillery base on the Karelian Isthmus. Finland celebrates its victory in Helsinki on 16 May 1918.
Almost 37,000 people perished in the four months of fighting, 5,900 of whom (16% of the total) were between 14 and 20 years old. A notable feature of the war was that only about 10,000 of these casualties occurred on the battlefields; most of the deaths resulted from the terror campaigns and from the appalling conditions in the prison camps. The deaths amounted to about 1 percent of the total population of Finland. By comparison, the bloodiest war in the history of the United States, the Civil War, cost the lives of about 2 percent of the population, but that loss was spread out over four years.
As the American electorate seems content to elect the treason party now, imagine how gleeful it will be to do so following the next activation of sleeper cells to commit the next act of terrorism in CONUS.
And that will be when they climb the tower light their red lantern. And that will be when it will begin. One percent of some 300 million would work out to around three million or so.
We may be underestimating the anger that’s been building amongst ordinary and patriotic Americans. As a people, we don’t go looking for a fight and we’re slow to anger. But when something happens that threatens our very existence as a nation or arouses our ire and disgust - as a widespread series of Beslan-style incidents would surely do - I wouldn’t give two cents to be a liberal or a muslim in this country. Their time will be up. For my part, I will do all that I can to make it so. I won’t be alone.
There’s something subtle in the analogy that I can’t quite put my finger on yet. Initial thoughts:
The Finnish military apparently was split in a manner suggesting questions as to fundamental loyalties. The US military swears an oath to the Constitution, not to any particular leaders; I imagine any attempts to co-opt any fraction of our military to revolutionary causes would result in that fragment being smacked down HARD by the rest. There would truly have to be real confusion over who won a POTUS election, which I’m not sure is really possible (Gore’s tantrum notwithstanding). An outright revolt by a plainly minority party wouldn’t fly.
The core of the analogy seems to imply this scenario:
Hillary, Pelosi, et al meet their loss at the 2008 election, with a clear Republican victory sweep. No question of election results arises (a la Gore) - they just flat-out lose. Finding this situation unacceptable (Hillary because it’s now-or-never for her in the Oval Office, Pelosi because the US-Iran war is getting underway, etc.) the Democratic Party holds a “revolt or not?” vote. Stunned again, Hillary, Pelosi & Co. again find themselves in an unacceptable minority. Committed to ensconcing themselves in power, the revolting minority decides to take the Capitol at dawn Christmas Day, facilitated by their familiarity with the guards & staff and bolstered by their bodyguards. By dusk they realize: this ain’t gonna work, and proceed to talk their way out of a very awkward situation. Unfortunately, several of their winning opponents assume room temperature the same day, along with some of the entourage and perpetrators. Dismayed at the aborted (even if by choice) revolution, DUmmies and MoveOn fanatics suddenly take a liking to the 2nd Amendment and assume the role which RKBA fanatics fantasize about (guerrilla resistance against the illegitimate tyrannical administration), attempting to break the increasingly deployed military suppression of insurrection spurred by the sporadic offing of assorted elected officials. The heavily armed right-wing population, having long waited for such a situation, and much to the annoyance of the military and administration, carries out (thanks to the long neglect of the “equip and train the militia” directive in the Constitution) a poorly organized but greatly impactful response to the insurrection. As crassly put on a popular board: hilarity ensues. The few leftists both deeply committed to their cause and revolutionary leaders AND proficient in and equipped with enough firepower soon assume room temperature, though take a non-trivial number of opponents and bystanders with them; the revolution gives up.
Upshot:
A US scenario comparable to the Finnish revolution is plausible - up to a point. Once diffused shooting starts, methinks the analogy will split for two reasons:
- Hardcore leftists just don’t have the wherewithall to pull off violent revolution. A few can do it, but on the whole they just don’t have the mindset for coordinated combat.
- For each Leftist with a gun and the ability+motivation to apply it, there are 100 right-wingers ready to hunt him down.
The Left just can’t pull off a revolution in this country.
HOWEVER...throw the “Azltan” opportunists in the mix, and things could indeed get very interesting - in the Chinese curse sort of way.
Whatever happens, the next several years will be rough ones, IMO. Too bad so many have been indoctrinated by public schools, the MSM and “entertainment” to become fools and knaves.
There is a lot of fire simmering. And then there’s China, too.
Don’t forget, dummy.
What is instructive about that historical example is how easily a society can unravel. Our society has been unraveling for a long time. Will America have a Second Civil War (a misnomer, seeing as there wasn't anything civil about the War For Southern Independence of 1861-65)? We ARE having a non-kinetic struggle over the future of the Republic right now. This struggle has been going on for as long as I have been politically aware.
Red State America, rural America, Constitution-loving, Second Amendment-practicing, God-fearing patriots who generally believe in their country, right or wrong, are on the one side of the divide.
Blue State America, urban America, Europe-loving, carbon offset-buying, First Amendment-practicing, agnostic Transnational Progressives who generally believe their country is the focus of evil in the world today, are on the other side of the divide.
Somebody famous whose name I can't remember said between two opposing camps who seek to make totally different worlds I see no alternative but force. I believed that myself for many years. Violence IS the answer to some questions, and there may yet be violence in America, but probably not on a scale recognizable as Civil War. Decades of conditioning by Cultural Marxists have so well prepared the Infomation Operations battlefield that kinetic action will be limited to Waco- and Elian Gonzales-type storm trooper operations from one side with little effective response from the other side. The "patriots" can talk smack and stay home and clean their guns, but without a huge upheaval that counters some 40 years of propaganda and psychological operations conducted against the American target audience they will be marginalized and ineffective, demonized and ratted out and rolled up.
A successful mass casualty terrorist attack could provide that huge attitude adjustment. Pretty expensive way to gain clarity.
And for everybody on this thread who stayed home on Election Day to protest Bush's border policy, are you happy now?