Posted on 03/13/2007 9:31:18 AM PDT by qam1
With baby boomers getting older and Generation X being a slower population growth demographic, expect tight labor markets for a long time.
Friday's unemployment report demonstrates this trend -- the U.S. economy, once again, created less jobs and the unemployment rate continued to drop. One would expect as job creation slowed, unemployment would pick up, that is not the case anymore. The U.S. created a paltry 97,000 for February. Monthly job creation is averaging 122,000 so far in 2007, down from 190,000 last year. However, despite this weak showing, the unemployment rate actually dropped, from 4.6% to 4.5%. This means less people are coming into the job market.
This is going to be a big dilemma for Fed policy makers. NAIRU and the Phillips Curve, the two big labor inflation theories, will be put to the test. If you have open markets, and China and India each possess populations over 1 billion, who cares about these labor inflation theories.
In much of the late 1990s, monthly job creation exceeded 200,000 for many months in a row. Even with February's paltry job growth,we could see unemployment drop way below 4.0%. I read an economist report years ago which said this population disparity between boomers and Generation X would drive the unemployment to 2.5%. It looks like we might be headed in that direction.
Ping list for the discussion of the politics and social (and sometimes nostalgic) aspects that directly effects Generation Reagan / Generation-X (Those born from 1965-1981) including all the spending previous generations are doing that Gen-X and Y will end up paying for.
Freep mail me to be added or dropped. See my home page for details and previous articles.
What about the current under 20 crowd--aren't they a huge population? Bigger than the boomers?
I guess this is good news...
No.
"I read an economist report years ago which said this population disparity between boomers and Generation X would drive the unemployment to 2.5%."
Never happen. Never.
Tight labor markets mean inflationary pressure bouncing hard against entitlement demands.
ugh
But, but, but the economy is in t-r-o-u-b-l-e and there are p-o-o-o-o-o-r people out there, starving in the streets, begging at every door, and we're 'going down' any minute on the world economic market. Hitlery told me so, so there!
who knew that in few short years...monica!
The under 20 crowd are larger than Gen X but are NOT larger than Baby Boomers.
The population of this country is 300 million.
160 million are retired.
That leaves 140 million to do the work.
There are 85 million in school.
Which leaves 55 million to do the work.
Of this there are 35 million employed by the federal government.
Leaving 15 million to do the work.
2.8 million are in the armed forces
Which leaves 12.2 million to do the work.
Take from that total the 10.8 million people who work for state and city governments.
And that leaves 1.4 million to do the work.
At any given time there are 188,000 people in hospitals.
Leaving 1,212,000 to do the work.
Now, there are 1,211,998 people in prisons.
That leaves just two people to do the work.
You and me
And there you are,
sitting on your ass,
at your computer, reading Free Republic.
Nice. Real nice
BUMP
uh-oh. Be scared anytime someone starts saying "new economy", "new paradigm",...
Only because we don't count people not signing up for unemployment.
Tight labor markets are inflationary. Inflation is particularly bad for those on fixed incomes. Many boomers, perhaps a majority of boomers, have not saved adequately for retirement; and the Greatest Generation is living longer and spending more on medical care than previously expected. Fears of inflation, inadequate savings, and delayed/diminished inheritances will cause many boomers to delay retirement well in to their seventies.
The idea, of course, is to get everyone on the "Not enough Americans to do the jobs that Americans won't do," etc., bandwagon.
Then justify amnesty for illegals and even more liberal immigration laws for moose limbs and other America-hating peoples.
"Only because we don't count people not signing up for unemployment."
Bingo. I wonder how our unemployment nubers are measured compared to European countries. The unemployment rate here is what, 4.5% or something? I suspect it is closer to 10% in reality if not higher, counting those who are able but just aren't going to work.
And we don't count as employed people, those that are self employed. This more than offsets the meager number that simply don't sign up for unemployment benefits.
I'm painfully aware of that uncounted group because they are my neighbors.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.