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Nice analysis - I've always enjoy reading your posts. Here are some counter-points to consider:

#1 - The Pro-Life Issue - this will be (and is currently being) re-directed to the issue of judicial nominations. It appears Rudy already has many prominent SoCons in his corner that support his views toward constitutional interpretation.

#2 - Illegal Immigration - sweeping amnesty will be passed by this summer, making II a moot point for the 2008 presidential election.

#3 - Gun Control - may be his biggest obstacle for single-issue voters as #1 & #2 above are neutralized.

Arnie has demonstrated how a moderate Republican needs to position himself if he wants to win in states like Calif, NY, PA, etc. With a strong stance on the WoT, when push comes to shove, southerners will vote for Rudy simply because they will not be able to bear the alternative.

This is the type of quick 'back-of'the-envelope' analysis the media & money-men have made regarding Rudy's prospects. Unless something radically changes in the interim, it's hard not to see how he is going to be the 2008 GOP candidate and take the election.

#1 - The Pro-Life Issue - this will be (and is currently being) re-directed to the issue of judicial nominations. It appears Rudy already has many prominent SoCons in his corner that support his views toward constitutional interpretation.

Too bad for them Rudy's past doesn't support his current views toward Constitutional interpretation.

#2 - Illegal Immigration - sweeping amnesty will be passed by this summer, making II a moot point for the 2008 presidential election.

Amnesty will only make matters worse, especially when the progressive governor of California that Rudy admires, one Ahhold Scharzenegger, gets illegals health insurance. The next president WILL have to deal with the issue his first term, and it WILL be much worse them. And Rudy is NOT the guy for that job, given his history with sanctuary and support for amnesty.

#3 - Gun Control - may be his biggest obstacle for single-issue voters as #1 & #2 above are neutralized.

Once again, RUDY CRITICS ARE NOT SINGLE-ISSUE VOTERS. To the contrary, our main difficult is keeping track of all the issues with Rudy. The only single-issue folks I see are Rudy boosters who say the WOT is the only issue that matters.

Anybody who trusts Rudy's promises on judges is a fool. A guy who supports abortion and believes the 2nd Amendment is about hunting wouldn't know original intent or "strict constuctionism" if it bit him on the @$$.

when push comes to shove, southerners will vote for Rudy simply because they will not be able to bear the alternative.

So you think that trying to force people to vote for you man is the way to go and this will work. Why don't you ask the first george bush and/or bob dole, to see if it works. And to your second point, if the senate doesn't block any illegal immigration amnesty. Then there will be a dimorat in the white house for a long time.

#1 - The Pro-Life Issue - this will be (and is currently being) re-directed to the issue of judicial nominations. It appears Rudy already has many prominent SoCons in his corner that support his views toward constitutional interpretation.

You haven't heard from real pro-lifers yet. Their initial rumblings are quiet but steadily negative. You should realize that they will not be caught endorsing the same candidate who holds the same positions he held when he was endorsed and funded by their arch-enemy, NARAL.

#2 - Illegal Immigration - sweeping amnesty will be passed by this summer, making II a moot point for the 2008 presidential election.

Don't count on it. There are enough remaining GOP senators up for re-election in '08 that they know better than to stab us in the back. It's suicide for about half those running in '08. And if we allow them to be defeated, the remaining GOP will probably be unable to muster a filibuster, making them untenable to lobbying interests and as power brokers. Principles aside, these are politicians and power-mongers.

#3 - Gun Control - may be his biggest obstacle for single-issue voters as #1 & #2 above are neutralized.

Again, they are currently quiet and parsing the issues, looking to see what these candidates will commit to as their presidential policy. But Rudy faces a very very high hurdle. The threat of a pro-NRA Richardson candidacy could wipe out the entire Southern vote in the Dims' favor. Before you dismiss that, keep in mind that Rudy is the Yankeeist Yankee you could imagine. He'd have to be gay as well to be more of an extraterrestrial to Southern folk.

In general, putting a gungrabbing pro-abortion pro-sodomy pro-illegals pro-CFR on the ballot will be, in effect, running your presidential candidate against all those downstream on the ballot. We'll lose our congressional and senate numbers and governor's races and legislatures over such a liberal. To run a leftwing NYC mayor is to court a disaster for the GOP that could last decades.

Those are certainly valid points -- and thank you for the kind comment. Rudy Giuliani's biggest problem regarding the pro-life issue is that he's got no credibility on the "strict constructionist" tack he's taking right now. What he's basically saying is that the attributes he would look for in Federal judges are exactly the opposite of the attributes he himself carries. I'm sorry, but I'm not buying that nonsense.

And my point regarding illegal immigration is not just that he's on the wrong side of the issue, but that his actions as mayor of New York City basically made him a Federal criminal. Just think about that for a second.