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Asteroid Threat Demands Response, Experts Warn
New Scientist ^ | 2-17-2007 | Ivan Semeniuk

Posted on 02/17/2007 11:41:10 AM PST by blam

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2000 SG344
1:556 chance
about 131 feet in diameter
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2000sg344.html


41 posted on 02/17/2007 5:30:18 PM PST by SunkenCiv (I last updated my profile on Thursday, February 15, 2007. https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: SunkenCiv

Well, it might not strike the earth but imagine if you had to say, "I remember when we had a moon."


42 posted on 02/17/2007 5:37:29 PM PST by tet68 ( " We would not die in that man's company, that fears his fellowship to die with us...." Henry V.)
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Asteroid 1950 DA
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/1950da/

Asteroid (29075) 1950 DA was discovered on 23 February 1950. It was observed for 17 days and then faded from view for half a century. Then, an object discovered on 31 December 2000 was recognized as being the long-lost 1950 DA. (As an aside, this was New Century's Eve and exactly 200 years to the night after the discovery of the first asteroid, Ceres.)

Radar observations were made at Goldstone and Arecibo on 3-7 March 2001, during the asteroid's 7.8 million km approach to the Earth (a distance 21 times larger than that separating the Earth and Moon). Radar echoes revealed a slightly asymmetrical spheroid with a mean diameter of 1.1 km. Optical observations showed the asteroid rotated once every 2.1 hours, the second fastest spin rate ever observed for an asteroid its size.

Detection of A Potential Hazard

When high-precision radar meaurements were included in a new orbit solution, a potentially very close approach to the Earth on March 16, 2880 was discovered to exist.


43 posted on 02/17/2007 5:39:45 PM PST by SunkenCiv (I last updated my profile on Thursday, February 15, 2007. https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: SunkenCiv
When high-precision radar meaurements were included in a new orbit solution, a potentially very close approach to the Earth on March 16, 2880 was discovered to exist.

Would that be am or pm?

44 posted on 02/17/2007 6:03:14 PM PST by Publius6961 (MSM: Israelis are killed by rockets; Lebanese are killed by Israelis.)
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To: Publius6961

I'm not sure, but I'm diggin' a shelter right now.


45 posted on 02/17/2007 6:56:43 PM PST by SunkenCiv (I last updated my profile on Thursday, February 15, 2007. https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: tet68

:')


46 posted on 02/17/2007 6:57:24 PM PST by SunkenCiv (I last updated my profile on Thursday, February 15, 2007. https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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the risk page, sorted by diameter, risk of impact, and number of encounters. :')
Object Designation Year Range Potential Impacts Impact Prob. (cum.) Vinfinity (km/s) H (mag) Est. Diam. (km) Palermo Scale (cum.) Palermo Scale (max.) Torino Scale (max.)
2005 WN3 2024-2024 1 3.0e-08 18.17 29.9  0.004 -9.23 -9.23 0
2006 BF56 2092-2106 7 6.3e-06 26.19 29.6  0.004 -7.30 -7.69 0
2006 BO7 2060-2060 1 2.0e-07 9.83 29.3  0.005 -8.86 -8.86 0
2004 FU162 2007-2104 822 6.2e-05 9.93 28.9  0.006 -5.41 -6.37 0
2006 DO62 2036-2095 11 1.6e-06 11.19 28.3  0.007 -7.45 -7.87 0
2006 JY26 2073-2106 69 5.4e-03 2.98 28.4  0.007 -4.25 -4.32 0
2006 WP1 2015-2017 2 2.0e-05 18.00 28.2  0.008 -5.34 -5.38 0
2006 UJ185 2052-2105 7 2.0e-06 15.44 27.9  0.009 -7.15 -7.75 0
2006 SR131 2071-2106 19 2.2e-05 8.47 28.0  0.009 -6.37 -6.99 0
2007 BB 2076-2076 1 2.6e-06 4.45 27.8  0.009 -7.29 -7.29 0
2006 GU2 2022-2104 66 9.7e-06 7.32 27.8  0.009 -6.49 -6.88 0
2001 GP2 2043-2099 32 1.0e-04 2.58 26.9  0.010 -5.26 -5.71 0
2003 WT153 2044-2103 39 1.2e-05 4.33 28.1  0.010 -6.75 -7.41 0
2003 UM3 2022-2099 38 1.2e-06 14.38 28.1  0.010 -7.38 -7.97 0
2005 TK50 2027-2100 3 1.3e-08 21.47 28.6  0.010 -9.50 -9.76 0
2005 TA 2099-2102 3 1.8e-06 4.82 27.2  0.010 -7.30 -7.33 0
2005 UC3 2076-2101 2 4.8e-07 7.65 27.1  0.010 -7.71 -7.95 0
2000 SZ162 2070-2096 3 5.3e-07 4.18 27.1  0.010 -7.67 -8.01 0
2005 TH50 2031-2094 24 5.7e-05 4.93 28.0  0.010 -5.96 -6.36 0
2005 VN5 2047-2102 17 7.4e-05 6.57 27.0  0.010 -5.35 -5.72 0
2004 PU42 2071-2103 18 7.7e-05 10.11 26.8  0.010 -5.23 -5.85 0
2005 BS1 2016-2041 5 8.2e-05 12.36 27.3  0.010 -4.51 -4.51 0
2000 LG6 2075-2101 20 8.6e-04 2.10 29.0  0.010 -5.49 -5.91 0
1991 BA 2014-2096 11 8.7e-07 18.03 28.7  0.010 -7.48 -7.97 0
2003 YS70 2075-2103 2 8.9e-07 3.14 28.8  0.010 -8.30 -8.37 0
1994 GV 2048-2086 23 9.2e-05 8.15 27.5  0.010 -5.40 -5.99 0
2007 DC 2025-2064 105 1.7e-06 6.88 27.5  0.011 -7.01 -7.78 0
2006 YE 2082-2095 4 2.4e-06 6.01 27.3  0.012 -7.13 -7.38 0
2006 UQ216 2064-2106 5 2.5e-07 3.76 27.3  0.012 -8.06 -8.32 0
2006 XZ2 2074-2097 4 4.1e-07 9.08 27.1  0.013 -7.67 -8.00 0
2006 DM63 2031-2093 37 1.2e-04 10.37 26.7  0.015 -4.55 -4.92 0
2005 VL1 2031-2104 50 1.4e-05 6.40 26.7  0.015 -5.92 -6.50 0
2007 CC27 2056-2104 54 9.3e-05 10.81 26.8  0.015 -5.11 -5.87 0
2006 HE2 2069-2103 5 2.2e-06 5.02 26.5  0.017 -6.78 -6.98 0
2006 WV29 2036-2105 11 4.7e-06 16.75 26.5  0.017 -6.07 -6.50 0
2006 UU17 2075-2104 5 1.9e-05 9.80 26.4  0.018 -5.75 -5.99 0
2002 UV36 2087-2087 1 1.5e-05 8.06 26.5  0.020 -5.90 -5.90 0
2004 BN41 2086-2098 2 1.5e-06 7.56 25.8  0.020 -6.57 -6.69 0
2004 XB45 2035-2035 1 1.6e-08 17.02 26.3  0.020 -8.03 -8.03 0
2006 SF281 2009-2105 328 2.3e-06 4.51 26.2  0.020 -5.59 -6.93 0
2004 VM24 2074-2098 18 2.9e-05 12.86 25.7  0.020 -5.03 -5.48 0
2002 TA58 2081-2081 1 3.0e-09 11.30 26.6  0.020 -9.50 -9.50 0
2003 DW10 2046-2054 3 4.1e-07 7.82 26.1  0.020 -6.98 -7.10 0
2004 XO63 2065-2065 1 4.5e-09 8.16 26.1  0.020 -9.06 -9.06 0
2001 BA16 2033-2051 4 5.3e-06 4.90 25.8  0.020 -5.77 -5.80 0
1998 BT13 2036-2036 1 6.0e-08 8.03 26.4  0.020 -7.79 -7.79 0
2004 RU109 2038-2053 5 6.1e-07 12.93 26.5  0.020 -6.81 -7.21 0
2005 UA1 2036-2036 1 7.8e-08 14.68 26.4  0.020 -7.46 -7.46 0
2005 AU3 2048-2105 15 9.1e-06 14.46 26.0  0.020 -5.70 -6.06 0
2006 WZ184 2044-2104 19 4.4e-06 7.27 26.0  0.021 -6.27 -7.02 0
2006 TF 2029-2029 1 6.8e-10 8.07 25.8  0.023 -9.33 -9.33 0
2007 DD 2042-2107 95 4.6e-06 3.39 25.5  0.027 -5.94 -6.68 0
2006 BM8 2106-2106 3 7.9e-07 14.82 25.4  0.028 -6.50 -6.83 0
1997 UA11 2073-2073 1 1.5e-07 11.96 25.2  0.030 -7.06 -7.06 0
2004 VZ14 2076-2104 6 2.0e-06 15.20 25.3  0.030 -5.97 -6.45 0
2006 QV89 2019-2046 17 3.2e-04 5.17 25.3  0.030 -3.22 -3.23 0
2001 YN2 2020-2020 1 3.2e-09 18.49 24.9  0.030 -7.85 -7.85 0
1995 CS 2042-2073 6 3.7e-06 24.91 25.5  0.030 -5.34 -5.70 0
2002 TY59 2074-2084 2 4.8e-07 8.22 25.4  0.030 -6.84 -6.84 0
2005 QK76 2030-2083 9 5.3e-05 19.67 25.2  0.030 -3.89 -4.08 0
1998 DK36 2025-2100 24 7.1e-07 6.19 25.0  0.030 -6.42 -6.54 0
2005 XA8 2063-2086 28 7.9e-05 12.08 25.6  0.030 -4.55 -4.71 0
2002 XV90 2101-2101 3 8.2e-07 7.63 25.2  0.030 -6.61 -6.69 0
2005 VP 2045-2103 27 8.8e-08 12.71 25.4  0.030 -7.29 -7.89 0
2006 HX57 2045-2065 2 1.7e-06 10.54 25.2  0.031 -5.95 -6.02 0
2006 SC 2043-2095 5 3.1e-05 12.23 25.2  0.031 -4.58 -4.60 0
2006 BC8 2081-2103 11 3.9e-06 13.19 25.1  0.032 -5.65 -6.13 0
2006 UC64 2069-2078 2 1.6e-08 20.14 25.0  0.034 -7.65 -7.76 0
2006 WZ29 2060-2060 1 3.2e-09 11.55 24.7  0.039 -8.39 -8.39 0
2003 LN6 2061-2099 3 1.6e-06 3.96 24.5  0.040 -5.85 -5.88 0
2004 XK3 2029-2104 66 1.7e-04 6.55 24.5  0.040 -3.81 -4.06 0
2001 AV43 2066-2097 6 1.7e-05 3.71 24.4  0.040 -4.82 -5.03 0
2000 SG344 2068-2101 68 1.8e-03 1.37 24.8  0.040 -3.08 -3.43 0
2002 VU17 2084-2099 5 1.9e-05 13.69 24.8  0.040 -4.80 -5.22 0
2005 UL6 2068-2068 2 2.1e-07 12.02 24.5  0.040 -6.53 -6.69 0
1997 TC25 2090-2096 2 2.9e-07 9.92 24.9  0.040 -6.80 -6.81 0
2002 CB19 2049-2049 1 5.7e-08 15.73 24.8  0.040 -6.99 -6.99 0
2006 DN 2056-2056 1 3.0e-07 3.99 24.5  0.043 -6.50 -6.50 0
2006 HF6 2068-2070 7 6.8e-06 16.39 24.5  0.043 -4.88 -5.35 0
2007 CS5 2009-2031 12 1.0e-06 4.98 24.3  0.046 -5.46 -5.85 0
2006 WC30 2073-2073 1 1.6e-08 9.12 24.3  0.047 -7.65 -7.65 0
2007 DJ 2018-2102 5 3.0e-08 13.84 24.2  0.049 -6.58 -6.66 0
1999 SF10 2080-2100 3 1.0e-06 4.76 24.0  0.050 -5.98 -6.23 0
2000 SB45 2074-2101 83 1.5e-04 7.54 24.3  0.050 -3.86 -4.28 0
2005 EL70 2034-2058 2 1.8e-06 35.50 24.1  0.050 -4.48 -4.49 0
2003 UQ25 2093-2093 1 5.2e-08 18.01 24.2  0.050 -6.96 -6.96 0
2001 UO 2020-2020 1 5.4e-09 16.28 24.1  0.050 -7.28 -7.28 0
1994 GK 2051-2071 7 6.1e-05 14.87 24.2  0.050 -3.83 -3.84 0
2005 TM173 2009-2104 167 9.4e-07 8.82 24.1  0.052 -5.51 -6.40 0
2005 ED224 2018-2064 6 2.8e-06 25.17 24.0  0.054 -4.27 -4.48 0
2006 JE 2094-2106 2 1.5e-06 26.37 23.8  0.058 -5.18 -5.19 0
2002 TX55 2089-2096 3 1.8e-05 10.15 23.6  0.060 -4.38 -4.42 0
2006 QN111 2079-2079 1 2.1e-06 10.55 23.8  0.060 -5.29 -5.29 0
1999 RZ31 2056-2056 1 4.5e-07 8.20 23.8  0.060 -5.92 -5.92 0
2005 GQ33 2051-2103 8 7.2e-09 20.78 23.7  0.060 -7.41 -7.90 0
1996 TC1 2054-2075 4 9.4e-07 24.04 23.9  0.060 -5.28 -5.52 0
2005 WG57 2029-2104 8 2.3e-06 9.91 23.6  0.063 -4.84 -4.90 0
2005 YR3 2058-2058 2 1.8e-07 6.43 23.6  0.065 -6.25 -6.51 0
2002 MN 2070-2101 8 3.3e-06 10.40 23.3  0.070 -4.91 -5.30 0
2007 CT26 2099-2104 7 1.6e-06 10.61 23.3  0.074 -5.30 -5.53 0
2006 FW33 2012-2103 59 7.2e-08 9.26 23.2  0.079 -6.04 -6.59 0
2002 RB182 2044-2086 13 1.5e-06 13.20 22.8  0.090 -4.89 -5.23 0
2004 XM29 2045-2045 1 4.0e-10 15.11 22.9  0.090 -8.19 -8.19 0
2001 BB16 2084-2100 4 5.4e-06 3.57 22.6  0.100 -4.57 -4.70 0
2004 ME6 2017-2099 43 1.1e-07 12.05 22.6  0.102 -5.64 -6.35 0
1994 WR12 2054-2102 134 1.0e-04 9.84 22.4  0.110 -2.96 -3.75 0
2001 SB170 2089-2095 2 6.5e-08 22.49 22.5  0.110 -5.92 -6.18 0
2004 HZ 2023-2023 1 9.1e-08 13.26 22.3  0.120 -5.27 -5.27 0
2005 UO 2074-2074 2 1.4e-07 19.02 22.1  0.130 -5.37 -5.38 0
2005 YU55 2036-2105 59 4.5e-06 13.58 22.0  0.130 -3.87 -4.92 0
2001 QJ96 2032-2032 1 9.0e-09 26.69 22.0  0.130 -5.94 -5.94 0
2005 NX55 2011-2102 85 3.1e-08 24.75 21.9  0.140 -5.26 -5.97 0
2006 CM10 2092-2092 1 1.7e-06 22.34 21.7  0.150 -4.15 -4.15 0
2004 GE2 2100-2100 1 1.9e-08 20.57 21.4  0.180 -6.02 -6.02 0
2007 CN26 2013-2106 112 7.5e-06 7.25 21.1  0.200 -3.39 -3.72 0
6344 P-L 2022-2052 2 2.8e-08 15.34 21.1  0.207 -5.43 -5.66 0
2006 CD 2008-2105 60 3.8e-08 11.20 21.0  0.212 -4.83 -4.98 0
99942 Apophis (2004 MN4) 2036-2037 2 2.2e-05 5.87 19.7  0.250 -2.52 -2.52 0
2007 CZ49 2058-2094 3 1.3e-08 12.19 20.6  0.260 -5.83 -5.90 0
2000 TU28 2104-2104 1 2.3e-07 9.47 20.4  0.280 -4.81 -4.81 0
2001 FB90 2021-2091 3 7.7e-09 26.56 19.9  0.345 -5.02 -5.13 0
2006 KF100 2017-2071 3 4.4e-10 16.09 19.7  0.390 -6.43 -6.60 0
2000 QS7 2053-2053 2 1.3e-06 12.32 19.6  0.420 -3.27 -3.46 0
2002 GJ8 2089-2089 1 1.6e-08 26.27 19.3  0.460 -4.91 -4.91 0
144898 2004 VD17 2102-2102 1 1.7e-08 18.22 18.9  0.580 -4.91 -4.91 0
2001 CA21 2020-2073 4 1.7e-08 30.66 18.5  0.678 -3.89 -4.10 0
1979 XB 2056-2101 3 3.3e-07 24.54 18.5  0.685 -3.07 -3.14 0
1998 HJ3 2100-2104 3 2.1e-07 24.09 18.4  0.694 -3.49 -3.69 0
2007 CA19 2012-2012 1 1.4e-06 27.26 17.7  0.990 -0.91 -0.91 1
2004 BX159 2009-2100 14 3.6e-09 13.97 17.2  1.200 -3.79 -3.94 0

47 posted on 02/17/2007 7:41:13 PM PST by SunkenCiv (I last updated my profile on Thursday, February 15, 2007. https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: AFPhys

Pretty stupid way to do the math. Tell me whats the value of saving humanity? Care to do that calculation? And don't compare it to "Global Climate change" or any other boogieman. This is as real as tommorow. It WILL happen. It's the one type of planetary disaster we can actually try to prevent.


48 posted on 02/18/2007 5:56:29 AM PST by Kozak (Anti Shahada: " There is no God named Allah, and Muhammed is his False Prophet")
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To: johnmark7
Asteroids have a way of exploding when they approach a planet. They have an electrical charge at their core which fails to to equalize rapidly enough with the different charge of a planet which creates internal stresses that cause them to become bolides.

Er, no.

That is just "Electric Universe" bunk.

Comets break up all the time because they are simply dirty snowballs with little structural strength, and many asteroids are little more than piles of rubble stuck together.

There is no reason to make up stuff about electric charges to explain processes that are the result of simple mechanics.

49 posted on 02/18/2007 10:55:23 AM PST by tyke
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To: tyke

Er, yes. If you know nothing about plasma physics save yourself the trouble of commenting.

And while you're at it, lets see a single dirty snowball in fact rather than theory.

If you won't actually examine the evidence, get lost.


50 posted on 02/18/2007 11:31:11 AM PST by johnmark7
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To: x
"Even if this all turns out to be a false alarm, we still get rid of Ben Affleck."

A win-win scenario if ever I heard one.

51 posted on 02/18/2007 11:41:48 AM PST by joebuck
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To: Kozak
The money spent on preventing that would be cheap insurance.

A UN tax has a 1:1,000,000,000,000 chance of helping anyone other than the crooks at the UN.

52 posted on 02/18/2007 11:47:18 AM PST by Cementjungle
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To: blam
But the threat is real enough, experts argue, to merit a United Nations protocol for dealing with the problem.

Let's not, say we did, and keep our tax dollars.

Heck, let's see if Australia will let us set up a couple of asteroid observatories there, since the majority of uncharted ones are most likely in the Southern Hemisphere field of view.

Then, we can figure out a way to deal with any potentially real threats.

But in the mean time, we can still send up Affleck just to make sure...

53 posted on 02/18/2007 12:22:57 PM PST by Calvin Locke
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To: blam
"We" cannot even find suitable charges to prosecute Sandy Burgular and send him to Levenworth.. YET "We" can prognosticate a meteor hitting earth in 2036 and where it will hit.?..

I DON'T THINK SO...

54 posted on 02/18/2007 12:28:56 PM PST by hosepipe (CAUTION: This propaganda is laced with hyperbole....)
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To: blam

For those always wondering why NASA and the other global space agencies are constantly trying to work in the International Space Station...this is it imo. I have said for years the world's governments are up to something to prevent our total destruction up there because there is a clear emphasis on getting work done ASAP up there.

I realize the odds of this hitting are a little high but one needs to realize what will happen even if it misses the planet slightly. We could lose a lot of communication tools and fry a lot of other objects we have circling the globe and here on land.


55 posted on 02/18/2007 12:29:22 PM PST by My Favorite Headache (Liberals : So open-minded....their brains have all fallen out)
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To: johnmark7
If you won't actually examine the evidence, get lost.

If scientists were required to study every crackpot theory pseudoscience had to offer, they would get nothing done. You were the one who came on here with some unbelievable, unprovable claim about unbalanced electric charges, contrary to just about everything we know about modern physics. (We're not talking about rubbing a balloon on a woolen sweater and sticking it to the ceiling). Methinks you are the one who should be examining the "evidence" again. In any case, the burden of proof is upon you, not me.

56 posted on 02/18/2007 12:34:05 PM PST by tyke
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To: tyke

Since you haven't clue to what you're talking about, you're talking through your hat. Refute the evidence presented or cite someone who can, or shut up and get lost.

There is nothing contrary to modern physics or astronomy in any assertions or articles I've cited. If you can find falsehoods, be my guest.

Because you know nothing about plasma physics, please do not inflict your ignorance on others.

And if you haven't looked at the results of Comet Tempel 1 and the Deep Impact experiment, you are seriosuly impaired in forming any intelligent opinion. Where is the water? And who accurately predicted the results prior to the event and have had them borne out?


57 posted on 02/18/2007 2:01:14 PM PST by johnmark7
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To: Kozak

You forgot to tell us WHEN it WILL happen.

10 years, 100 years, 1000 years?

History tells us it's closer to a 1000 than to 100.


58 posted on 02/18/2007 2:11:03 PM PST by Balding_Eagle (If America falls, darkness will cover the face of the earth for a thousand years.)
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To: blam
to provide the UN with a 'decision process' for assessing and acting on the hazard posed by Apophis and other near-Earth asteroids

But of course! It all makes sense to me now...

59 posted on 02/18/2007 5:55:28 PM PST by John123 (Dick Morris predicts Hitlery will be the worst president ever... I will now light myself on fire)
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To: Balding_Eagle
History tells us it's closer to a 1000 than to 100.

Mathematics and probability tell us it's as likely tomorrow as in 1000 years....
60 posted on 02/19/2007 5:48:31 AM PST by Kozak (Anti Shahada: " There is no God named Allah, and Muhammed is his False Prophet")
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