Posted on 02/12/2007 3:14:32 AM PST by Jedi Master Pikachu
So will the 43rd Munich Security Conference be remembered as the start of a new Cold War?
That is probably the single most important question to emerge from this long weekend of speeches and private chats among the world's most powerful. Certainly Russian President Vladimir Putin's strident speech stands out from the crowd. In it, to recap, he strongly criticised the US and its European allies, with his harshest criticism reserved for Washington. The US had, he said, overstepped its borders in every way, seeking to impose its will on the world. 'No new Cold War' But Washington has clearly decided to politely brush aside Mr Putin's remarks rather than to escalate tensions with Russia. Making his first appearance at the conference as the new US Defence Secretary, Robert Gates tried to deflate President Putin's attack by poking a bit of fun at their past careers as spies. "As an old Cold Warrior," he said, "one of yesterday's speakers almost filled me with nostalgia for a less complex time. Almost.
" Many of you have backgrounds in diplomacy or politics. I have, like your second speaker yesterday, a starkly different background - a career in the spy business. "And, I guess, old spies have a habit of blunt speaking" Mr Gates bluntly said there was no new Cold War and that the US certainly did not want one.
Rather, he said, it sought Russia's partnership. Overall though, Mr Gates's performance will surely be remembered for it being very unlike his predecessor Donald Rumsfeld - the man the conference used to love to hate. Clearly hoping to reach out to America's European allies he acknowledged that the US had made mistakes in the last few years and that it needed to work on restoring its reputation as a force for good in the world. He even pointedly poked fun at his predecessor.
"Over the years, people have tried to put the nations of Europe and of the Alliance into different categories," he said. "And I am told that some have even spoken in terms of 'old' Europe versus 'new'," referring to comments made by Mr Rumsfeld in the run-up to the Iraq invasion. It got a good laugh. But back to that Cold War question. Towards the end of the conference Russian Defence Minister Sergei Ivanov defended his boss, insisting President Putin had not intended to be confrontational. After that the mood appeared to soften. But there is no doubt there have been mutterings here about a chill in relations between and Russia and the West - though maybe not a new Cold War.
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New Europe and Old Europe exist... what other misconceptions does Gates operate under?
LLS
Time will tell.
It might not be pleasant, but we have to face the fact that Russia is still a superpower in many ways. Large parts of Europe are dependent on Russian energy and some European gouvernments tend to establish closer relations with Russia because the affiliation with the US changed in a fundamental way since the end of the cold war. My own country -Germany- was the most prominent example for this new course under Chancellor Schroeder. A policy that is -thank God- in the meantime reversed by Anglea Merkel, but there are others who could revive this path. I.e. we have to wait for the outcome of the elections in France, the country with probably the biggest political impact on Germany. Mme Royal is for sure not in favour of America.
Putin has the idea of a common market from the Atlantic to Wladiwostok. This can be in the well understood self interest of Europe, but only if the Russian economy will open itself. Investment and trade have to become safe and must not be a question of bribemoney. The combination of European know-how and Russian resources could be a big competitive advantage. Besides of this it would be in the interest of the whole western world to have Russia on its side. The goal must be a cooperation and not a coexistance. Therefore the Russians have to develop their so called "guided democracy" into a real democracy in our definition.
The challenge for Europe is to take this chance an one side and to maintain strong ties to America on the other. Some countries in eastern Europe like Poland feel sandwiched between Germany/France and Russia. They are alone not strong enough to impede the coming closer cooperation between the "big fishes" in Europe, but they can take influence on the development. They must use their influence on western Europe to prevent a premature alliance between a dictatorial Russia and the rest. Russia must understand that everything is possible as long as it is developing into a free society.
If it leads to more freedom and stability in Russia such is also in the fundamental interest of the US. The Russians could be the strongest partner in positive leadership due to their possibilities. It is quite easy to understand: If we stop dreaming the dream of a free world it will never come true.
Putin, your speech united the US and Europe more. Thank you in an odd sort of way. What a paranoid buffoon.
I am very uncomfortable with Russian behavior this past 14 months. Their willingness to use energy as a weapon would scare the heck out of me if I were a European politician. And Russia's willingness to send out assassins loaded with Polonium, well I have no words. Why isn't Europe holding Russia accountable for arming Iran with nuclear weapons? The Gulf States and Saudi Arabia are now in an arms race against the Persians. My guess, if the ME explodes, Russia benefits with all their oil and natural gas. Yet, there is not one European willing to call Russia on this, why?
We are all very uncomfortable with those things. Speaking about energy as a weapon you have to be careful. The Russians had good reason to stop their deliveries into Belarus and the Ukraine. It is understandable that they want market prices for their oil and gas and the West was perfectly prepared.
Politowskaya and Litwinenko are the real problem. Their death is the proof that Russia is falling back into the old times again. This can not be tolerated. Germany is a quite important country for the Russians because it is their most important trading and political partner. Since the Russians do not have many friends I am sure that Putin was listening closely when he was confronted with the critisism of Angela Merkel, who refused promptly his suggestions on a common market. That will not be forever, but the Russians know that they have to pay a price. The thing is that this price should be much higher since it should be a stimulus for Putin to open the path to freedom.
Besides - the Russians are delivering a light-water reactor that is not suitable to produce HEU or Plutonium 239. It only can be used for producing electricity. For the nukes you need different stuff. This technology was probably sold by Americas number one ally - Pakistan.
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