Giuliani, McCain Have Competing Strengths in Republicans' Eyes (New Gallup Poll)

Gallup ^ | 2/1/07

[areafiftyone]

February 01, 2007 Giuliani, McCain Have Competing Strengths in Republicans' Eyes McCain's strengths lie in foreign policy, ethics, and moral values; Giuliani's on domestic issues and leadership by Frank Newport and Jeff Jones

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GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- A recent Gallup Panel poll shows Rudy Giuliani and John McCain the clear frontrunners among the Republican Party's 2008 presidential hopefuls. In the most recent test of rank-and-file Republicans' presidential nomination preferences, 31% said they would be most likely to support Giuliani and 27% said McCain. When asked to choose between the two, however, Republicans show a slight preference for Giuliani at 50% to 42%, respectively.

The latest poll sought to explore Republicans' views of Giuliani and McCain in more depth, asking them to choose which candidate better exemplified certain personality or political characteristics as well as say who would be better able to handle specific issues.

The results show Giuliani enjoys a remarkably strong image relative to McCain in terms of his likability. Nearly three-quarters of Republicans say Giuliani is the more likable candidate; only 21% choose McCain. Additionally, Giuliani has wide leads over McCain for handling crime, doing the better job in a crisis, uniting the country, understanding the problems of ordinary Americans, being the better public speaker, and being the stronger leader. McCain's strengths center on his handling of moral values issues, his ability to handle most foreign policy issues, and his ethical standards -- but his leads are much weaker than Giuliani's top strengths in terms of magnitude.

Giuliani is currently viewed as the candidate more likely to win the presidential election though Republicans are divided as to which candidate has the better chance of winning the party's presidential nomination. People are also relatively closely divided in their assessment of whether McCain or Giuliani is more qualified to be president -- though McCain has a slight edge on this.

Candidate Characteristics

The Jan. 25-28, 2007 poll asked Republicans and independents who say they lean to the Republican Party to rate Giuliani versus McCain on each of 15 specific issue characteristics [a similar analysis was done of Democratic candidates: see "Clinton Eclipses Obama and Edwards on Leadership" in the Related Items]. Of the 15 characteristics tested, Giuliani is viewed as having a clear advantage on 10 items. McCain "wins" on only three dimensions, and the two candidates are essentially tied on the remaining two.

Republicans' Ratings of Giuliani and McCain
on Character and Political Dimensions
January 2007 Gallup Poll

	Giuliani	McCain	Advantage
	%		%
Is more likeable	74	21	G, +53
Would be better in a crisis	68		28	G, +40
Would do more to unite the country	65	28	G, +37
Is the better public speaker		61	27	G, +34
Better understands the problems faced by ordinary Americans	60	33	G, +27
Is the stronger leader	59	34	G, +25
Would perform better in the debates	56	37		G, +19
Would manage the government more effectively	55	37	G, +18
Has the better chance of beating the Democratic nominee in the 2008 presidential election		55	38	G, +17
Would run the more positive campaign	50	38	G, +12
	Has the better chance of winning the Republican presidential nomination in 2008	47	46	G, +1
Would be respected more by leaders of other countries	45	45		Tie
Is more qualified to be president	41	50	M, +9
Would work better with Congress	41		52	M, +11
Has higher ethical standards	35	50	M, +15

Giuliani's greatest strength vis a vis McCain comes on the following dimensions on which he has at least a 20-point lead over the Arizona Senator:

• Is more likable

• Would be better in a crisis
• Would do more to unite the country
• Is the better public speaker
• Better understands the problems faced by ordinary Americans
• Is the stronger leader

Giuliani does better than McCain, albeit with a slightly smaller lead, on the following:

• Would perform better in the debates
• Would manage the government more effectively
• Has the better chance of beating the Democratic nominee in the 2008 presidential election

• Would run the more positive campaign

The two candidates are essentially tied in terms of these characteristics:

• Has the better chance of winning the Republican presidential nomination in 2008
• Would be respected more by leaders of other countries

Republicans give McCain the advantage on these dimensions:

• Has higher ethical standards
• Would work better with Congress
• Is more qualified to be president

Overall, Giuliani appears to be very well-positioned against McCain on many relevant and important dimensions.

Significantly, of course, it is important to note that McCain is viewed by Republicans as more qualified to be president than Giuliani. His strength on working better with Congress undoubtedly flows from his own experience as a U.S. Representative from 1983-1986 and as a U.S. Senator since 1987. McCain's strength on the basis of ethical standards may result both from his own background and questions about Giuliani's business activities since the end of his mayorship of New York City as well as the events surrounding his recent divorce and re-marriage.

But Giuliani's perceived strengths are many, and the distance between Giuliani and McCain on some of these dimensions is very large. For example, there is a 53-point gap in the percent who choose the former New York City mayor made "more likable" compared to McCain and a 37-point gap on the dimension of "most likely to unite the country."

Candidates on the Issues

The poll also asked Republicans to indicate which of the two potential candidates would do the better job on a series of 10 issues. [The same analysis for the Democratic candidates can be found in the Related Items: "Clinton Eclipses Obama and Edwards on Leadership."]

Giuliani has an advantage on six of the issues tested and McCain has an advantage on four. Giuliani's strengths are primarily in the area of domestic issues while McCain leads on most international matters.

Republicans' Ratings of Giuliani and McCain on Issues
January 2007 Gallup Poll

	Giuliani	McCain	Advantage
		%	%
Crime	78	17	G, +61
The economy		52	38	G, +14
Terrorism	53	41	G, +12
Taxes		49	37	G, +12
Education	48	38	G, +10
Healthcare		47	39	G, +8
Energy and the environment	43	44	M, +1
The situation in Iraq		40	53	M, +13
Relations with other countries	37	54	M, +17
Moral values issues		30	58	M, +28

Giuliani's biggest advantage is on crime, for which 78% of Republicans view him as better compared with 17% who say McCain is. Giuliani, a federal prosecutor prior to being elected mayor of New York City, made crime prevention a focus during his administration and crime rates in the city did fall during his tenure.

Giuliani is also viewed as better than McCain on the economy (52% to 38%), education (48% to 38%), healthcare (47% to 39%), and taxes (49% to 37%). The candidates are rated about equally on the environment and energy with 44% saying McCain would do a better job and 43% Giuliani.

McCain, who has long supported an increased U.S. military presence in Iraq, is viewed by Republicans as better to handle the situation in Iraq by a 53% to 40% margin over Giuliani. (Giuliani has supported recent calls for a troop increase in Iraq.) Republicans also give McCain a 54% to 37% edge on handling "relations with other countries."

One international issue in Giuliani's favor is terrorism, on which he has a 53% to 41% edge over McCain. Giuliani's widely praised response to the Sept. 11 terror attacks while serving as mayor of New York City is the likely reason for this -- and is enough to overcome the perhaps more general sense that McCain is better on international matters.

McCain's biggest issue advantage is not on an international issue, but on moral values. Fifty-eight percent of Republicans believe he would do the better job on this issue while 30% believe Giuliani would. Giuliani's past positions in favor of abortion and gay rights are generally out of step with the views of most rank-and-file Republicans while McCain's positions have generally been in keeping with the Republican platform.

Republicans' relative ratings of the candidates on the issues do not vary much by their religious commitment or self-described political ideology.

Bottom Line

Unlike the Democratic candidates, where Hillary Clinton is clearly the dominant candidate in terms of voter preferences, character dimensions, and issue positioning, the Republicans show more delineation between their leading candidates. Giuliani is viewed favorably by Republicans on key dimensions such as leadership, likability, and electability, while McCain has equally important strengths on foreign policy aptitude, moral values issues, and integrity. But Giuliani's advantages on his strongest issues and characteristics (61 points on crime, 53 points on likability, 40 points on handling a crisis) are much greater than McCain's (28 points on moral values, 15 points on ethical standards).

The poll provides insight into where the candidates stand among the party before campaigning kicks off in earnest -- while both McCain and Giuliani have formed presidential candidate exploratory committees, neither has officially announced his candidacy. McCain would do well to emphasize his experience and foreign policy credentials while reminding Republican voters of his traditional views on moral values. Meanwhile, Giuliani apparently would be well-served to remind the voters of his leadership of New York following the Sept. 11 crisis and attempt to capitalize on his more favorable public image.

Survey Methods

Results for this Gallup Panel study are based on telephone interviews with 441 Republicans and Republican leaners, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 25-28, 2007. Gallup Poll panel members are recruited through random selection methods. The panel is weighted so that it is demographically representative of the U.S. adult population. For results based on these samples, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±6 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls. 

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IT'S TOO BIG A POLL TO POST (3 PAGES) YOU CAN READ THE REST HERE CLICK

[Signalman]

Mark my words: neither one will be elected President. So better to find somebody else to represent the party, or forget about winning in '08.

OK a gentleman's bet. I predict Giuliani will be the next president. We can forget about winning in '08 if anybody other than Giuliani is our candidate. Especially if the Hildabeast is the opponent.

[ozarkgirl]

Nothing in this poll about gun control or protecting our own borders.

[dirtboy]

Then you elect HILLARY by default

So if we don't nominate Rudy or McVain, there's no chance, eh?

I'm throwing in my backing for Paris Hilton. She's more famous than Rudy and McVain put together, and she's got plenty of money. /rino logic

[word_warrior_bob]

If it comes down to Rudy vs. McCain, Rudy is 1000 times better than McCain.

[dirtboy]

We can forget about winning in '08 if anybody other than Giuliani is our candidate.

Your opinion stands in complete disregard of Republican strategies for success over the last thirty years.

When the GOP stays right, they win. When they go left, they lose.

You don't draw Reagan Dems back to the GOP by chasing them deep into the Democratic party.

[concerned about politics]

Then you elect HILLARY by default. DUMB move.

I don't see much of a difference between Hillary, McCain, or Guiliani. Please, enlighten me. What am I missing?

Vote for a liberal - you'll get liberalism.

[MadIvan]

When the GOP stays right, they win.

Rightly or wrongly, people perceive what President Bush is doing as hard right conservatism. This is largely due to what the media is saying. Rightly or wrongly, the media has been chipping away at President Bush, saying he's a failure. Whoever the next candidate is, has to be a complete break with President Bush - furthermore, there is one thing that has been lost in the mists of time: Reagan campaigned with an optimistic view of the future, many on the right now campaign with a scowl. The latter will not work. Giuliani shows that he has the best understanding of this (so far).

Regards, Ivan

[sionnsar]

I don't trust McLame there either.

One should need to look no further than "McCain-Feingold" in order to see why he should not be elected. The First Amendment is effectively dead, thanks to this ******* -- already he's shut up our local conservative radio talk show hosts when it comes to political races.

[MadIvan]

I don't see much of a difference between Hillary, McCain, or Guiliani. Please, enlighten me. What am I missing?

Read this, then come back. I sometimes feel like I'm the only one who remembers BKO!

Ivan

[sionnsar]

Vote for a liberal - you'll get liberalism. totalitarianism.

[dirtboy]

Reagan campaigned with an optimistic view of the future, many on the right now campaign with a scowl. The latter will not work. Giuliani shows that he has the best understanding of this (so far).

The primaries are a long way off. The GOP has to first correct its own course, and they are showing no signs of doing such. I see a lot of wrong lessons being learned from 2006. Which means we may well repeat the drubbing in 2008.

[Signalman]

Giuliani is a Conservative when it comes to the things that count:

Strong on Defense

Strong on fighting the war on terror

Strong proponent of a Free Market Economy,/Pro Business, and low taxes

How he stands on gay rights and/or abortion does not bother me in the slightest.

[MadIvan]

I think Martinez as the head of the RNC was a mistake - the job demands full-time attention, not something a sitting Senator can do (at least I hope so).

Regards, Ivan

[dirtboy]

How he stands on gay rights and/or abortion does not bother me in the slightest.

Realize that there are millions of Republican voters who feel very differently about that.

And saying their views do not matter is NOT the way to win them over.

[beltfed308]

They should do the same poll in 3 months. After potential voters learn about all the baggage the two carry. Just say no to Rudy!

[John D]

I know that this will bring the wrath of many anti-McCain Freepers, but McCain would be my candidate of choice if he were not so damned old.

---

Being old is the least of my concerns. What concerns me is that he is a cowardly, insane liberal whos only concern is with himself. He has no concern for what is best for America.

[concerned about politics]

Read this, then come back. I sometimes feel like I'm the only one who remembers BKO!

Ok. That's Hillary.
Now tell me why banning the right to self defense, unfettered infanticide, homo "marriage", high taxes, and universal health care are something we should be supporting under McCain and Rudy.

Vote for a liberal - you'll get liberalism, whether it comes from a (D) or an (R). Liberalism is still liberalism.

Shouldn't we ignore the liberal presses choice for us and support a Conservative candidate instead?

[concerned about politics]

How he stands on gay rights and/or abortion does not bother me in the slightest.

He can't win without social conservatives. Social liberalism affects the country we live in too, you know, and is just as dangerous. The more the moral fabric breaks, the more social programs are needed to clean up the mess.

[Digger]

So what's the big deal. Of these who cares. They all are in the cartel & bought & paid for by the same elites. We're going to fight wars until there is no more money & put us on equal with the rest of the nations all the time the elites take more of the wealth from us.

[3niner]

I'm more concerned about their competing weaknesses.