Good analysis. As a Russian, I agree with most of it.
Well, you probably hope even more than I that the Russian people will find some way out of the present shortsideness of their leaders. Russia has been a defender of civilization since the time they drove back the Muslim hordes from central Asia. If Russia disappears from the scene, the results won't be happy for anyone. I was very happy when Bush first met with Putin, but those hopes have pretty much evaporated.