Posted on 01/02/2007 9:28:41 AM PST by A. Pole
One general observation of the anxiously awaited Iraq study group report can be expressed in just a few well known words: the mountain gave birth to the mouse. I would not blame Jim Baker or Lee Hamilton as they are not magicians and one shouldn’t have expected them to produce a miracle. Practically everything that this report recommends was already discussed within the expert community and in the media. It was probably a waste of money, but the expense is a microcosm compared with the 226 million a day -- or $8 billion a month, $76 billion a year U.S. spends on Iraq. Can someone call it money well spent? I doubt it. Civil war or not, Iraqis are killing each other by the score every day and U.S. soldiers have been fighting and dying in Iraq longer than in the World War II. More and more experts and politicians, including republican Bush supporters like Henry Kissinger say that if by victory we mean a viable democratic Iraqi state, able to sustain itself, it can't be done.
The Baker-Hamilton Iraq Study Group recommends talking to Syria and Iran, but why should they help us? If anyone is winning this war it is Iran. Listen to Moshen Rezai, secretary of the government's "Expediency Council." "The kind of service that the Americans, with all their hatred, have done us," said Rezai, "no superpower has ever done anything similar. America destroyed all our enemies in the region. It destroyed the Taliban. It destroyed Saddam Hussein...It did all this in order to confront us face to face, and in order to place us under siege. But the American teeth got so stuck in the soil of Iraq and Afghanistan that if they manage to drag themselves back to Washington in one piece, they should thank Allah."
So, what in all of this can Russia do? Should Putin help his friend Bush again as he once did back in 2001 in Afghanistan? My answer – absolute «yes». Of course, one might argue that Russia got nothing in return for its help and, moreover, instead of expected economic or political favors got U.S. sponsored «color» revolutions in its back yard, and continuing attempts to divert Caspian oil flow through Russian pipes. On the other hand, Russia’s help in Afghanistan was not a charity enterprise at all as the Taliban represented a formidable destabilizing threat to Russia’s southern flank, so destroying this enemy with American hands was a pretty good deal.
It is obvious that American defeat in Iraq is not in Russia’s interests. Such defeat will unleash a new huge wave of Islamic radicalism which can overwhelm not only the Middle East but the Caucasus and other Russian regions as well.
How Russia can help if it decides to do so is another question but for a starter if I were Bush before engaging Syria or Iran I would call Putin and, for that matter, Chinese leader Hu Jintao and have a frank and honest discussion with two gentlemen about Iraq in particular and the war on terrorism in general.
This time, Russia could and should explain exactly what it is prepared to do and what it wants in return, and get agreement from US, preferably in writing, to avoid future complaints about broken promises like the pledge not to expand NATO, etc.
Putin helping us in Iraq!? Bwahaha! Absolute lunacy.
If Russia wants to help us in a constructive way, they should stop financing and propping up Iran, Syria, Hezbullah and Hamas.
Russia was Saddam's sugar daddy from the beginning 'til the bitter end, and now they are doing the same with Iran. They are part of the problem, not the solution. If the Russians are really concerned about the danger Islam poses to them, they should, as I said, stop building up Iran's WMD's.
Absolutely pathetic.
SHOULD Putin help us against Islamism? Certainly. The U.S. is far less of a threat to Russia than the Muslim fanatics who are encroaching on their southern borders. We have a common interest in controlling these fanatics.
WILL Putin help us against Islamism? Of course not. For about a year he did grudgingly lend Bush a hand by allowing us to use facilities that made it possible to drive out the Taliban from Afghanistan. But even then he continued to help Saddam and arm Iran, and he soon withdrew his support for our presence in his satellite states.
It has been clear for some time that Putin hates and resents us, and would rather destroy Russia than work with us. As a result, Russia will probably fall. Marc Steyn makes an excellent case for it in his recent book.
Putin is intent on building up the Russian Kleptocracy and enriching himself and his friends. He is intent on building up immediate power. He seems to be ignoring completely the larger threats to to survival of Russia, which are: 1) Islam; 2) China; 3) Demographic implosion.
Nary a sign that he might wise up, change course, and act for the long run survival of Russia. Over the years, Russia has shown incredible energy in its people and incredible stupidity in its leaders. Now it seems as if those leaders will finally succeed in destroying their people.
But WHO this "Iraq" or "they" are? Shia led by Muqtada al-Sadr (the ones who executed Saddam Hussein), Sunni with remnants of Baath Party, Kurds, or Mr. Chalabi?
The plain fact is that removal of the former regime effectively decapitated Iraqi state. It will take time before new head (or several) will grow up.
I agree. What seems most likely, if we cut and run a la Baker/Hamilton, is that the new Iraq will fall in with the Syria - Iran alliance, which Russia supports. Why would Putin fight against that?
Or maybe he is rather afraid that Russia could share the fate of Serbia?
Putin is intent on building up the Russian Kleptocracy and enriching himself and his friends.
I think you are confusing him with Yeltsin.
Good analysis. As a Russian, I agree with most of it.
It has been clear for some time that Putin hates and resents us, and would rather destroy Russia than work with us.
Reminds me of a Russian joke:
Two Russian farmers hated each other with a hatred that was intense and had gone on for many years.
One day, one of the farmers was ploughing his field and he unearthed a lamp, which, upon closer inspection, yeilded up a Genie.
The Genie said to the farmer: "You can have one wish. You can wish for anything you want. If you want a huge mansion, I will give you a huge mansion. If you want a wagon-load of gold, I will give you that. And if you wish for the most beautiful woman in the world to be your wife, I will give you a woman that will amaze your eyes and delight you for the rest of your life. But there is one catch."
The farmer, of course, was ecstatic and began to think of which of the many possible treasures he should wish for. But that last phrase caught his attention and he said: "What's the catch?"
"The catch is," said the Genie, "that whatever you wish for, I will give you, but I will also give your neighbor double. If I give you a mansion, I will give him two mansions. If I give you a wagon-load of gold, he gets double that. And if you get the most beautiful woman in the world for your wife, he will have two women, of equal beauty."
So the farmer thought and thought, and finally he came up with a wish:
"Pluck out one of my eyes!"
Lol!
That's about right.
Maybe three of Russia's greatest leaders were Ivan the Terrible (a madman), Catherine the Great (a notorious nymphomaniac), and Stalin (one of history's greatest mass murderers). Yet under these three leaders, they accomplished some great things. It's a fair indication of their bad luck or aptitude with leaders.
Well, you probably hope even more than I that the Russian people will find some way out of the present shortsideness of their leaders. Russia has been a defender of civilization since the time they drove back the Muslim hordes from central Asia. If Russia disappears from the scene, the results won't be happy for anyone. I was very happy when Bush first met with Putin, but those hopes have pretty much evaporated.
There were other great Russian leaders. Peter the Great or those who managed to free Russia from Mongol/Muslim rule or the one who helped Europe to defeat Napoleon and to stabilize the continent for generations.
I think that it is absolute nonsense. Russia should not help USA.
This dangerous country make the problems for Russia in the Russian sphere of influence. Iraq is a problem of the USA.
The World Policeman began to fight for oil there, and it is not Russia problem.
The Western Europe has actually refused to help them, would be folly to not follow to W.E. example.
May be they will understand that the strength impose the responsibility.
Russia has been a defender of civilization since the time they drove back the Muslim hordes from central Asia.Which period? Which battles? (Just curious.)
Both before and after the fall of Constantinople. The Russians beat back the Tartars several times.
There's a brief summary here:
http://www.mainlesson.com/display.php?author=bergen&book=russia&story=decline
The Russians also managed to hold off the Grand Turk after he had captured Constantinople and Trebizond.
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