Gentlemen, Start Your Plug-Ins: How does 500 miles a gallon sound to you?

WSJ ^ | 1/1/2007 | R. JAMES WOOLSEY

[Uncledave]

An oil and security task force of the Council on Foreign Relations recently opined that "the voices that espouse 'energy independence' are doing the nation a disservice by focusing on a goal that is unachievable over the foreseeable future." Others have also said, essentially, that other nations will control our transportation fuel--get used to it. Yet House Democrats have announced a push for "energy independence in 10 years," and in November General Motors joined Toyota and perhaps other auto makers in a race to produce plug-in hybrid vehicles, hugely reducing the demand for oil. Who's right--those who drive toward independence or those who shrug?

Bet on major progress toward independence, spurred by market forces and a portfolio of rapidly developing oil-replacing technologies.

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All this is likely to change decisively, because electricity is about to become a major partner with alternative liquid fuels in replacing oil.

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Utilities are rapidly becoming quite interested in plug-ins because of the substantial benefit to them of being able to sell off-peak power at night. Because off-peak nighttime charging uses unutilized capacity, DOE's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory estimates that adopting plug-ins will not create a need for new base load electricity generation plants until plug-ins constitute over 84% of the country's 220 million passenger vehicles.

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Once plug-ins start appearing in showrooms it is not only consumers and utility shareholders who will be smiling. If cheap off-peak electricity supplies a portion of our transportation needs, this will help insulate alternative liquid fuels from OPEC market manipulation designed to cripple oil's competitors.

[UpAllNight]

--That's a bit disingenuous to change the standard of comparison.--

No. You stated that one must EXPEND energy to come to a stop. I showed you that one can RECOVER energy in coming to a stop.

[Myrddin]

No. You stated that one must EXPEND energy to come to a stop. I showed you that one can RECOVER energy in coming to a stop.

The act of stopping is still expending energy. There is frictional loss in the tires, drive train and heating loss in the recharge of the battery. You only expend 68% as much energy to stop assuming your energy recovery is similar to the best efficiency that a Prius (32%) claims to deliver to the road.

[UpAllNight]

--The act of stopping is still expending energy. There is frictional loss in the tires, drive train and heating loss in the recharge of the battery. You only expend 68% as much energy to stop assuming your energy recovery is similar to the best efficiency that a Prius (32%) claims to deliver to the road.--

No. The act of stopping is the conversion of energy, motion into heat. If we have regenerative braking, we divert (recover) some of that energy to be used later. I don't know where you get the 32%. Battery cycle efficiency is about 85% and I really doubt that drive train losses would make up the rest.

[Myrddin]

I don't know where you get the 32%. Battery cycle efficiency is about 85% and I really doubt that drive train losses would make up the rest.

Efficiency studies on the Toyota Prius claim that it delivers 32% of energy from the gasoline it consumes to the road compared to only 16% for a conventional gasoline engine.

The efficiency of the charging cycle for a battery connected to a wall charger may be 85%. That is your best case. After you subtract the losses in the drive train and efficiency of the generator, those losses are added on top of the 15% inefficiency of the battery charging process. You're still throwing away more than half the kinetic energy of the moving vehicle to bring it to a stop.

[UpAllNight]

--Efficiency studies on the Toyota Prius claim that it delivers 32% of energy from the gasoline it consumes to the road compared to only 16% for a conventional gasoline engine. --


We are not talking about the gasoline engine. We are discussing regenerative braking.




--The efficiency of the charging cycle for a battery connected to a wall charger may be 85%. That is your best case. After you subtract the losses in the drive train and efficiency of the generator, those losses are added on top of the 15% inefficiency of the battery charging process. You're still throwing away more than half the kinetic energy of the moving vehicle to bring it to a stop.--

You reference nothing to get to your losses. I would expect that we are recovering more than half. Still, even recovering half is much, much better than recovering ZERO.

[Myrddin]

You reference nothing to get to your losses. I would expect that we are recovering more than half. Still, even recovering half is much, much better than recovering ZERO.

The hybrid still has rotors and/or drums. The amount of regenerative recapture is dependent on how much isn't expended as friction/heat in the conventional part of the braking system.

Rather than try to assert a negative, why don't you produce statistics show just how much you actually recover? Anything you do manage to put back into the battery will still experience losses again on the way out of the battery, down the drive train and down to the wheels. Is it really a paying proposition?

[UpAllNight]

Tests show that up to 70% of the energy is recovered using ONLY FWD regenerative braking

[UpAllNight]

--Is it really a paying proposition?--

Yes!!!!!!!!!!!

[Myrddin]

What is the price point of gasoline for a hybrid buyer to break even with a simple gasoline engine? Let's assume the disposal of the battery at end of life isn't a factor.

[UpAllNight]

These are cars but show that regenerative braking results in TOTAL energy savings of about 30%.

[UpAllNight]

--Let's assume the disposal of the battery at end of life isn't a factor.--

Since the battery has value at end of life, it should be factored into the equation.

[Sybeck1]

Can I run my A/C on a battery powered car during a 95+ degree Mississippi August afternoon? While pulling my bass boat up a hill passing a semi?

[UpAllNight]

--Can I run my A/C on a battery powered car during a 95+ degree Mississippi August afternoon? While pulling my bass boat up a hill passing a semi?--

Point of note. The article is about hybrids. Electric motors have tremendous torque. One has essentially flat torque from 0 to 13500 rpm allowing the vehicle to require only 2 gear speeds.

[gogeo]

Dave, meet the FR naysayers...

[gogeo]

Often the comments in this forum reflect a range of experience not possessed by the poster...

Often, the comments in this forum reflect:

---a lack of willingness to read an article...

---a total willingness to create straw men...

--a total commitment to the idea that unless an alternative will fix every problem and address every situation, it isn't worth considering (and the poster who suggests it is a flaming moron, liberal, Clinton supporter, etc...

[Myrddin]

Ok, let's factor the whole picture. The initial sticker price of the hybrid is higher than the gasoline only model. The consequences are higher sales tax upon purchase, higher total finance charges, higher annual registration costs in states that base registration of the current value of the car, higher insurance (collision) rates to cover the higher value owed to the bank if the car is destroyed before the end of the loan. I don't think we have enough experience to compare maintenance costs just yet. I suspect the replacement/repair costs are going to be higher for hybrids as they have a smaller production volume, thus they don't benefit from economy of scale enjoyed by the gasoline only model.

All of that extra cost needs to be offset by reduced fuel usage at a significantly higher price point than current gasoline prices over the life of the car. What is the break even price for gasoline for a nominal service life of 100,000 miles? Are hybrid owners happy to accept the current federal mileage reimbursement, or do they feel short changed?

[Uncledave]

Dave, meet the FR naysayers...

Yeah, tell me about it! Whoo boy.

[RFEngineer]

"Dave, meet the FR naysayers..."

Formerly mocked as the "round earth people"......

[gogeo]

Suzi, you're wasting your time, you know...

[Myrddin]

Progress is often made in increments. Still, it doesn't survive or thrive unless it is an economic win. New technology in the early stages requires patrons with money to burn on "cool" technology. People who don't care about the bottom line. HDTV is a good example. When the kinks are worked out and the efficiencies of mass production drop the price, then the average joe can participate. Hybrid cars are still in the "cool" technology phase. They are significantly more expensive than simple gasoline engine driven vehicles. The people who buy them aren't saving any money over the service life of the vehicle. It is all about owning a "cool" hybrid right now. Let's see if the automakers can do for hybrids what the HDTV industry has done for their product. If the price was identical and all the kinks were worked out, I would probably buy a hybrid. It won't happen for a while. My 1999 F150 4x4 had 22500 miles on it when I purchased it in August 2003. It has 29500 miles on it today. When it reaches 100,000 miles, I'll have a look at a hybrid as a replacement.