Posted on 12/26/2006 4:05:06 AM PST by baseball_fan
Marshall Goldman, a long-time student of Russia, says energy wealth and control over export pipelines have made Russia more powerful than at any time in its history. VOA's Barry Wood reports the Harvard University professor spoke at a forum Thursday in Washington.
Professor Goldman told the Jamestown Foundation that Russia's post-cold war power is built on its oil and gas resources. He said both eastern and western Europe have become dependent on Russia for oil and gas and that alternative supplies are not available. The recent boom in oil and gas prices, said Professor Goldman, has greatly boosted Russia's economic and political clout.
"I end up arguing, and I'm putting my neck out, that Russia is more powerful now than it ever was during the czarist era or the Soviet era," he noted. "In the Soviet era there was mutually assured destruction. They had nuclear weapons. We had nuclear weapons. We didn't use them, because we were worried they would and vice versa. Here you don't have that kind of restraint."
Goldman says Russia has a long history of using oil and gas as a foreign policy tool.
"In the Soviet era they cut off the flow of oil to Yugoslavia under Tito, to Israel after Sinai, to China after Mao broke away, to Cuba, to Finland, and more recently to Lithuania because there is a dispute over who is going to control the refinery there that Yukos is trying to sell," he explained.
Yukos is Russia's second largest oil company.
Goldman attributes much of President Vladimir Putin's popularity to the economic resurgence that the country is experiencing, in large part because of its energy exports. Russia now has the world's third largest foreign currency reserves, after China and Japan. Mr. Putin's re-nationalization of state assets and moves against the economic oligarchs who wielded enormous power under Boris Yeltsin have also been popular.
Professor Goldman says Russia's geographic position between Europe and Asia may make energy-hungry China vulnerable to Moscow, primarily because so many energy pipelines run through Russia.
"Just as the Europeans have become dependent on Russia for its gas, if the pipelines are built to China, the Chinese will become equally vulnerable," he added.
Russia, concludes Goldman, in just nine years has made an extraordinary transition from economic weakness to great strength. He credits President Putin with restoring national pride and ending the threat of political fragmentation within Russia.
Ya broke yer back gettin there. Happy now???
Interesting article. Thanks for posting.
This sort of thing happens when you have a "single-source" supplier. Remember why the Bell Telephone System was broken up? The "baby Bells" ended up competing with other smaller companies in their respective areas, and eventually, with each others' territories.
Things did not necessarily get better afterwards on the short term. A very confusing rate structure came into existence, sometimes making it difficult to make direct comparisons.
you're welcome. i saw a story on tv a couple of days ago saying brazil had now become energy independent. the race would appear to be on to lessen the importance of oil and gas with alternative sources before it can be used as a foreign policy knock-out blow. oil and gas revenues are already embolding dictatorial regimes and ideologies around the world. if the major producers were smart, they would realize they need to keep their oil and gas assets attractive and not drive everyone to alternative sources; unlikely to happen however. their idea of attractive would seem to be buy it or starve.
Amazing now that the Soviet Union has collapsed, there is no more restriction on Western investment--and that is exactly what enabled Russia to develop and grow to levels undreamt of 30 years ago.
It's that very investment which Russia now uses to gain and consolidate more power (economic) and poses a greater threat to Western Europe than it ever did under the Soviets.
Oh, ironies of ironies.
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