Posted on 12/13/2006 1:03:08 PM PST by Strategerist
Updated: 06:15 UTC on 13 December 2006 Solar Terrestrial Dispatch www.spacew.com
VALID BEGINNING AT: 00:00 UTC ON 14 DECEMBER VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (5 pm EDT) ON 15 DECEMBER
HIGH RISK PERIOD: 14 DECEMBER (UTC DAYS) MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 14 - 15 DECEMBER
PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 15, 70, 30, 15 (13 - 16 DECEMBER)
POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: HIGH
POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 HOURS MINOR BELT = 12-24 HOURS
ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR AND AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT
EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT
OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: GOOD TO VERY GOOD
AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM... (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NORTHERN NEVADA TO COLORADO TO KANSAS TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI TO TENNESSEE TO NORTH CAROLINA.
ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM... (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)
FRANCE TO NORTHERN ITALY TO AUSTRIA TO SOUTHERN POLAND TO CENTRAL RUSSIA.
NEW ZELAND AND SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF ACTIVITY MODERATE TO STRONG ACTIVITY.
SYNOPSIS...
A powerful and well-directed solar flare from active solar Region 930 was observed early on 13 December. This event has the potential to produce periods of moderate to strong (possibly even intense) auroral storm activity on 14 December, possibly lingering into 15 December. The most intense phase of activity is likely to occur some hours after the initial impact, which is currently expected near 07:00 UTC on 14 December (2 am EST on 14 December). The moon will begin to impinge on observations after it rises sometime after local midnight, so the best observations (if possible) will occur prior to and near local midnight when the moon is still below the horizon.
This warning will remain valid through 24:00 UTC (5 pm EST) on 15 December. It will be updated or allowed to expire at that time. For updated information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html
PLEASE REPORT VALID OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO: http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html
** End of Warning **
One aurora I saw a few years back was like looking directly into a flower. I had visions of being irradiated, like 'this one is for you, special.' ZAP!
I am talking about Auroras.
They seem to be there most of the time. Sometimes they flare up and swirl around the sky, but usually it is a whitish, maybe slightly greenish general glow to the sky. The central path of auroras normally passes directly overhead.
ping
You get to see the ISS and the Space Shuttle sometimes down there. We have never seen either from this latitude.
Should be a good light show for some,, we'll be under clouds. remember watching them as a kid back in Minnesota
Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES
Space Environment Center (SEC) of NOAA
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/pmap/
Last few times I've seen them at ~44.5N latitude, they reminded me of rippling pleats, rather than waves or curtains.
ping
That's exactly what I remember. Glad I am not losing it. It is one of those childhood experiences I carry with me always. It was magic.
Northern Hemisphere View, Aurora Oval.
We were in my Chevy. We got the Aurora later.
We're having a combination with 100 MPH winds tonight.
I said that because I heard somebody once say 'seen one, seen 'em all,' and there are a lot of people who don't bother to go outside if somebody says there is a good aurora out. But, I am kind of an amateur astronomer and spend some time whenever possible just looking at stars even if they actually are about the same as they were last time.
After a while people take them for granted.
"You don't know what you've got
Till it's gone"
I liked stargazing too -- unfortunately I found that the best nights were also the coldest. (Not just because it's only dark in the winter -- duh. Winter skys in the north are incredibly clear, because they contain so little water vapour.)
HIGH RISK PERIOD: 14 DECEMBER (UTC DAYS) MODERATE RISK PERIOD:
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