After 15 years, almost ANY market would have some appreciation. Not being able to refinance that 78k would be due to credit or employment issues only, and worse came to worse, they COULD extend back to 30 years in the rare instance they couldn't afford any other option.
A fifteen-year balloon is NOT the same as the types of loans we're talking about here.
Hardly anyone does balloons anymore anyway.
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Can uou accurately predict the interst rate fifteen years out? I can't. I do remember the Carter years though.