Thanks for the analysis.
Time to make some coffee.
Posted on 11/07/2006 4:29:51 PM PST by LS
All right, folks. Guess I have to do it again around here and hand out the chill pills.
1) It is absolutely clear to me that we have won this. We will keep the Senate, and I'm 90% sure we keep the House. We'll probably gain a seat, maybe two in the Senate.
2) I know this from the turnout numbers, just as I did in 2004. The fact is, forget Indies. They don't vote in high numbers. It's all about the two parties, and who gets out their base.
We have done that today beyond my wildest expectations. The info we have from the Hotline on turnout is overwhelming, and in virtually every key state, we have exceeded Dem turnout by 2, 3, 4, or 6%.
As I predicted, we are seeing a Dem UNDERVOTE. They are underperforming, esp. in key states such as OH. However, they are underperforming far worse than even I dreamed. We are looking at 20% in Cuyahoga County! Brown and Strickland couldn't get elected dog catcher with that level of support.
SO HERE IS WHAT TO EXPECT: THE MEDIA IDIOTS HAVE THEIR TEMPLATES. THEY WILL BE VERY SLOW TO COME AROUND. IT WILL BE A LONG NIGHT, BECAUSE THEY WON'T BELIEVE THEIR EYES.
They may even "call" a few House races, maybe a Senate race, based on some ridiculously low "exit poll" and have to recant later. Be patient. The turnout numbers suggest we absolutely cannot lose.
Rainy weather in FL, GA, IN, MD, OR, WA, RI, TN, and VA. Many of them likely stayed home to begin their victory parties early.
Good.
Let it be so...
when do they count absentee ballots?
Thanks so much LS, this is the place to be. Optimism is catching.
You could use another crystal ball, genius.
At the end.
Republicans to add to their majorities in both Houses.
Count governors races, and think long-term.
Sounds good. You sure arent afraid to stick your neck out.
Your optimism is encouraging.
I certainly hope you're right, but some of the early returns from IN and KY are not so promising. For example, while Northup may yet pull this out, if she does it'll be by the thinnest of margins. That doesn't seem indicative of a GOP surge...
Go Irish
No, but a surge doesn't mean everyone wins by huge margins. It means a lot of close races break the right way.
It's not rocket science like some think it is. All you have to do is ask somebody at the polls how turnout is running. I did when I went to vote at 7 PM in PA's 15th. Didn't hurt that I have friends there as poll workers. One said turnout in general was running really high and another who was recording GOP votes said GOP turnout was running close to 2004. This isn't privileged or "inside" info.
Where are the remaining votes coming from North?
Do you have any insight into the Wilson-Madrid race in NM? There were some "ballot shortages" in Republican precincts. I'm wondering how that might be impacting things.
Exit polls and early calls are based on historic trends. If the GOP has "astounding" turnout in some areas, historic numbers are moot.
Northrup has never had an easy race in her district.
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