Warning: What to Expect

Self | 11/7/06 | LS

[LS]

All right, folks. Guess I have to do it again around here and hand out the chill pills.

1) It is absolutely clear to me that we have won this. We will keep the Senate, and I'm 90% sure we keep the House. We'll probably gain a seat, maybe two in the Senate.

2) I know this from the turnout numbers, just as I did in 2004. The fact is, forget Indies. They don't vote in high numbers. It's all about the two parties, and who gets out their base.

We have done that today beyond my wildest expectations. The info we have from the Hotline on turnout is overwhelming, and in virtually every key state, we have exceeded Dem turnout by 2, 3, 4, or 6%.

As I predicted, we are seeing a Dem UNDERVOTE. They are underperforming, esp. in key states such as OH. However, they are underperforming far worse than even I dreamed. We are looking at 20% in Cuyahoga County! Brown and Strickland couldn't get elected dog catcher with that level of support.

SO HERE IS WHAT TO EXPECT: THE MEDIA IDIOTS HAVE THEIR TEMPLATES. THEY WILL BE VERY SLOW TO COME AROUND. IT WILL BE A LONG NIGHT, BECAUSE THEY WON'T BELIEVE THEIR EYES.

They may even "call" a few House races, maybe a Senate race, based on some ridiculously low "exit poll" and have to recant later. Be patient. The turnout numbers suggest we absolutely cannot lose.

[ken5050]

and NO advertising...LOL

[Intolerant in NJ]

Yet Fox just opined that by their telephone poll this afternoon Chabot, Pryce and somebody else as well Blackwell and DeWine were likely to go down by double digits - bad polls even while the voting's going on......

[Nuc1]

Like it LS! I have never believed the Dims were as strong as the MSM painted them. I think we will gain seats in the house as well as the senate. Not big gains a seat or two but gains nonetheless. Just a feeling and I have backed it up with wagers. We will see, but your reports are hearting. Keep up the good work.

[LS]

It was posted earlier from the "Hotline," straight from the RNC. These are the numbers that have Rove and Mehlman so upbeat.

[Dane]

I propose we band together for a true conservative network with selected Freepers doing commentary. It would be outside the Beltway, normal people news, and it would be far more literate and funny....plus NO missing blondes or car chases!

And no smirking bill kristol in a smoking jacket.

[SaveTheChief]

I appreciate your optimism and believe that you are most likely correct in your analysis. However, I am not going to count my eggs just yet. All I can say is that I did my part. Let's hope everyone else did.

[freeangel]

Optimism bump!

[Redleg Duke]

LS, your posts this election season have been a thread of sanity and promise. You have my admiration and thanks.

I got an inkling of an impending RAT disaster this evening when the national news talked about exit polls listing nearly 6 in 10 voters disapproving of the conduct of the war in Iraq and in President Bush's job performance. First of all, they are assuming that all 60% were against the war. I suspect that a potent slice of them want the war prosecuted harder. I further suspect that that fact colors the statement on the President.

It will be a long night as the DBM/MSM will be clinging to hope until hope is dead and buried. Keep the faith.

[Jorge]

We have done that today beyond my wildest expectations. The info we have from the Hotline on turnout is overwhelming, and in virtually every key state, we have exceeded Dem turnout by 2, 3, 4, or 6%.

I hope and pray this is right.

But I have to admit I don't believe the GOP will keep the House.

[John Lenin]

Looking good Alice

[Porterville]

I hope we beat the snot out of the dems.

[rep-always]

I am with you Miss Marple. The HGTV channel for me and FreeRepublic. Can't deal with cable, never mind the alphabet.

[Michael Barnes]

Cool, just wanted to know or at least opine where the data was coming from...Now, second question if you don't mind. How do "they" gather their data (if by chance you know).

Thanks in advance

[Miss Marple]

Exactly right. I believe Carson might lose because of that.

At my Indiana precinct, we had to have picture ID, the address had to match the address on the registration sheet, and our signatures had to match the signatures. This is a good thing, and we should be grateful to Governor Daniels and the GOP legislature for pushing this through.

[JWinNC]

Optimism bump bump!

[An American!]

Interesting analysis. Sounds like you based it on an extremely small sample or personal observation. I really hope you are right! :) Pray!

[An American!]

Interesting analysis. Sounds like you based it on an extremely small sample or personal observation. I really hope you are right! :) Pray!

[rwfromkansas]

It looks like Northup is in trouble.

Does anybody know where the remaining votes come from there?

On the other hand, some good news SO FAR...often very few votes in yet...in the Midwest.

[archy]

If we hold Sodrel, Chocola, Davis and Northup's seats, I will breathe much easier.

I'd add John Hostettler in Indiana' *Bloody Eighth* to those, but his early returns do not look favourable. As of 6:45 PM tonight, FOX59 in Indianapolis shows Count Chocola neck-and-neck with Donnelly. This one is likely to be a barn-burner.

U.S. Rep District 2 -- 26 of 528 precincts reporting (5%)
Joe Donnelly [D] 6,261 50%
Chris Chocola [R] 6,314 50%

U.S. Rep District 8 -- 93 of 633 precincts reporting (15%)
Brad Ellsworth [D] 21,615 70%
John Hostettler [R] 9,422 30%

[beyond the sea]

1) It is absolutely clear to me that we have won this. We will keep the Senate, and I'm 90% sure we keep the House. We'll probably gain a seat, maybe two in the Senate.

LOL............ you silly fellow.