Posted on 11/07/2006 2:59:53 PM PST by proud_yank
Nov. 7, 2006 Will it rain on the Democrats' parade?
Although most experts predict heavy voter turnout in today's midterm elections, some of the most hotly contested races in Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee and New Jersey could be affected by bad weather. And some experts say that, based on history, Republicans should pray for rain.
Brad Gomez, an assistant professor at the University of Georgia, examined weather data and its impact on elections in a study titled "The Effect of Bad Weather on Voter Turnout and Partisan Vote Share in U.S. Presidential Elections, 1948-2000."
Gomez concluded that when it rains, it pours at the polls for Democrats. Gomez found that "rain significantly reduces voter participation at the polls by a rate just under 1 percent per inch," and that every inch of rain cuts the Democratic vote by 2.5 percentage points.
As one example, election officials in Massachusetts recorded one of the lowest voter turnouts (64.7 percent) in recent history on a day in 1974 when rain poured down through the morning and afternoon.
But an exception to the weather theory is a nonpresidential election like today's: In the 1994 midterm elections, mild weather failed to dampen the prospects for Republican candidates, who swept both houses of Congress.
Here's a rundown of the weather forecast for some of today's most-heated races:
In Montana, where Democratic candidate Jon Tester is locked in a tight race with incumbent Republican Sen. Conrad Burns, heavy rain is expected throughout most of the state.
In Ohio, the bellwether of recent elections, rain is expected in Cincinnati, Toledo and Cleveland, with more severe showers in the more rural southeastern part of the state.
In Pennsylvania, where Democrat Bob Casey is trying to unseat Republican incumbent Sen. Rick Santorum, showers are expected throughout the state this afternoon.
(Excerpt) Read more at abcnews.go.com ...
Excuses, excuses...
Next thing you know, someone will start with the "We didn't get our message out" crap.
PING!
TRATs melt in the rain.
Blech. Underlying premise is that Republicans need extraordinary help.
"6 out of 10 voting against President Bush.. "
He's running??
MUWAAAHAAAAHAAAHAAAHAAAAAAAAAAA!!!
Ya gotta love the Rovian Weather Control Machine!
I've been hearing that weather unfavorably affects Democratic turnout for years. That's why I'm a Republican. We have our limos to take us to the polls, you know. According to Nazi Pelosi, anyway. And she's sure going to take them away from us if she gets the chance.
Been raining in Georgia all day where the GOP has the chance of taking two House seats and a few statewide offices from the libs.
"Republicans should pray for rain."
Why ?When water hits Democrats do they melt like the wicked witch ?
AMEN!
Is THAT what happened to California???
It doesn't rain enough to keep them from mucking things up.
N.VA, MD, E.PA are getting it as I write this.
All I hear from them is static.
Does anybody know the over/under for the number of lawsuits the Democrats will file throughout the U.S.?
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