Posted on 11/07/2006 2:49:23 PM PST by I Hired Craig Livingstone
The RNC is sending this memo to surrogates this afternoon.
NATIONAL
Of the precincts that the RNC is monitoring turnout, we have a ½% turnout advantage over the 2004 turnout (GOP precincts are turning out at 32.9% of 2004 vote while DEM precincts are turning out at 32.5% of 2004 vote) Many states like Colorado, Nevada, Arizona have 25% of votes cast before election day.
ARIZONA
There were 60K more ballots submitted by Republicans before Election Day – and 41% of the state has already voted. In 2004 Exit Polling was off by 3.5% (they had it at 7%, actual results was 10.5%)
CONNECTICUT
In the precincts that the RNC is tracking turnout, GOP precincts are turning out at 8% higher rate (42% to 34%) from the 2004 vote.
FLORIDA
Republicans have a 140K advantage though absentee and early voting before Election Day – and 36% of the state has already voted. Exit polling got it wrong in 2000 and wrong in 2004 (4% off in 2004)
MARYLAND:
Republican absentees had pulled within even of Democrats before Election Day – in a state with a 2:1 dem registration advantage. Of the precincts we are tracking, Republican precincts are turning out 3% higher than Dem precincts off 2004 turnout (51-43).
MISSOURI
Of the precincts we are tracking, Republican precincts are turning out 2.6% higher than Dem precincts (42.3% to 39.7%) based off of the 2004 vote. 2004 exit polls had a 3% dem bias.
OHIO:
In 2004, exit polling was off by almost 9% (they had Kerry winning by almost 7%, we won by 2%)
TENNESSEE
(not much to say here…turnout looks against us, no exit polling from ’04 and absentee data is from MT data) In precinct turnout tracking, dem precincts are turning out 1% higher off 2004 vote. We estimate a 1% advantage on the absentee voting.
VIRGINIA:
In 2004, exit polling had the presidential within 1%, yet President Bush won by over 8%. Of the precincts we are tracking, GOP precincts are turning out at 48% of 2004’s turnout while Dem precincts are only at 41%.
Posted at 05:17 PM
I've done all I can, I'm not living in a state to worry about. It is time to pray!
Do not trust anything from this guy.
I don't like that major garrett at all. He's from cnn isn't he?
"Hastert's office has warned GOPers that the loss is 30 seats."
Hastert's office=some clek who watched MSM reports.
Post #2
Does the president have a veto power? I forget. /s
Tuesday, November 07, 2006
Exit Polling
Posted by Hugh Hewitt | 6:01 PM
I am hearing it is in shambles --doesn't pass the laugh test. Heh. March on out and vote
Relax and get your favorite cocktail folks...it will be a long night
Early polls tend to lean liberal, since Republicans are getting ready to work or already at work, by that time.
Thank you.
My bet is you will be proven right.
And we need a voice of sanity right now..even if we don't particularly like what we hear.
I wrote
"some clek"
Hastert may have a clek in his staff, but I meant clerk.
Down on the Corner...
Posted by Dean Barnett | 6:13 PM
And TKS, Sixers and the whole shebang. John Podhoretz emails that the entire NRO operation has been derailed. Anyone from the Corner reading this who wants to communicate with their public, feel free to email me and I'll pass the word on.
By the way, the exit polls are dirtier than "The Aristocrats." Ignore them. I'll tell you when it's time to panic. Until then, remain calm and vote if you haven't.
Hugh Hewitt, said networks were throwing out exit polls, very messed up.
I noticed NRO was down. Just as well. I will rely on FR only. :)
What are the chances it will be like '04 again, with a lot of bad polls follwed by victory? Seems hard to believe that could happen in 3 consecutive elections. But I didnt think it would happen back to back in 2002 and 2004 either, so anything is possible.
Hewitt just said Repub turnout was very good. Sounded optimistic to me.
Don't be an idiot. If you look at these numbers, there is simply no way we lose the House. We actually will do pretty well there. You can't outperform your opponent by 2, 3, or 8% as some of these numbers show, and lose.
My experience in my younger days at a major political polling firm is that exit results at the House level are highly inaccurate. It's too hard to sample because the polling precincts must be chosen very carefully and they change so often that historical results to base the sample are largely worthless. At the Senate level, these exit polls can be very predictive.
Really. What the heck is wrong with these fools? You know, one time, I could see. But twice? Especially after both Rove and Mehlman said "DON'T BELIEVE THE BOGUS EXIT POLLS."
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