Posted on 11/07/2006 2:49:23 PM PST by I Hired Craig Livingstone
The RNC is sending this memo to surrogates this afternoon.
NATIONAL
Of the precincts that the RNC is monitoring turnout, we have a ½% turnout advantage over the 2004 turnout (GOP precincts are turning out at 32.9% of 2004 vote while DEM precincts are turning out at 32.5% of 2004 vote) Many states like Colorado, Nevada, Arizona have 25% of votes cast before election day.
ARIZONA
There were 60K more ballots submitted by Republicans before Election Day – and 41% of the state has already voted. In 2004 Exit Polling was off by 3.5% (they had it at 7%, actual results was 10.5%)
CONNECTICUT
In the precincts that the RNC is tracking turnout, GOP precincts are turning out at 8% higher rate (42% to 34%) from the 2004 vote.
FLORIDA
Republicans have a 140K advantage though absentee and early voting before Election Day – and 36% of the state has already voted. Exit polling got it wrong in 2000 and wrong in 2004 (4% off in 2004)
MARYLAND:
Republican absentees had pulled within even of Democrats before Election Day – in a state with a 2:1 dem registration advantage. Of the precincts we are tracking, Republican precincts are turning out 3% higher than Dem precincts off 2004 turnout (51-43).
MISSOURI
Of the precincts we are tracking, Republican precincts are turning out 2.6% higher than Dem precincts (42.3% to 39.7%) based off of the 2004 vote. 2004 exit polls had a 3% dem bias.
OHIO:
In 2004, exit polling was off by almost 9% (they had Kerry winning by almost 7%, we won by 2%)
TENNESSEE
(not much to say here…turnout looks against us, no exit polling from ’04 and absentee data is from MT data) In precinct turnout tracking, dem precincts are turning out 1% higher off 2004 vote. We estimate a 1% advantage on the absentee voting.
VIRGINIA:
In 2004, exit polling had the presidential within 1%, yet President Bush won by over 8%. Of the precincts we are tracking, GOP precincts are turning out at 48% of 2004’s turnout while Dem precincts are only at 41%.
Posted at 05:17 PM
I hope you are right. I hope people see past what Ford is saying in TN and pay attention to what he actually voted in DC.
It's only 3PM here on the left coast... The poll won't be closed until 8PM.
Oh okay. I'm looking at my clock that is still one hour ahead and our polls here in CO close at 7:00. I'm calm now but in a second or two I'm sure I'll be hysterical again.
You reported what everyone pretty much already knows.
I haven't heard a single Dem OR GOP political pundit who disagrees with you.
But we must not upset those who still remain in denial.
I'm hearing that Dewey defeats Truman!
Why get depressed!!! Have we learned NOTHING from last election? Keep in mind that about this time last election, WE WERE LOSING BIG...
The trick with the MSM is to watch their lips, if they move, the MSM is lying.
Major Garrett reporting Hastert's office has warned GOPers that the loss is 30 seats.
FOX News just reported basically the same thing.
I was listening to local radio 2004 in the evening and they were reporting that Ohio was going to Kerry. You could just hear the wind go out of the local conservative guy's sails.
Hastert must therefore be a MSM liberal troll :)
Sorry, I won't hold my tounge, I believe in free speech and going to report what I'm hearing, whether it is good news or bad!
Sean has Rasmussen on saying it isn't looking good for us and I'm simply relaying the info. I hope I'm wrong, but I'm not going to hold my tounge over it, thanks!
I heard it also, Mark Levin was telling Sean not enough conservatives are voting. Call everyone you know, tell them to GO VOTE!
Ah gee, Nora O'Donnell and Chris Matthews are all smiles.
I hear you -- I was just trying to say that even if the house is lost the Senate is still worth fighting for over the next few hours.
If the Republicans lose 30 seats in the House, then they will lose the Senate, too. I'm still holding out hope, based on the 2004 exit poll failures.
You don't have to hold your tongue, but at least be honest about what you are "reporting".
And Hastert's office would not confirm that report.
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