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The RNC's Absentee/Early Voting Tallies
The Hotline blog ^

Posted on 11/07/2006 2:49:23 PM PST by I Hired Craig Livingstone

The RNC is sending this memo to surrogates this afternoon.

NATIONAL

Of the precincts that the RNC is monitoring turnout, we have a ½% turnout advantage over the 2004 turnout (GOP precincts are turning out at 32.9% of 2004 vote while DEM precincts are turning out at 32.5% of 2004 vote) Many states like Colorado, Nevada, Arizona have 25% of votes cast before election day.

ARIZONA

There were 60K more ballots submitted by Republicans before Election Day – and 41% of the state has already voted. In 2004 Exit Polling was off by 3.5% (they had it at 7%, actual results was 10.5%)

CONNECTICUT

In the precincts that the RNC is tracking turnout, GOP precincts are turning out at 8% higher rate (42% to 34%) from the 2004 vote.

FLORIDA

Republicans have a 140K advantage though absentee and early voting before Election Day – and 36% of the state has already voted. Exit polling got it wrong in 2000 and wrong in 2004 (4% off in 2004)

MARYLAND:

Republican absentees had pulled within even of Democrats before Election Day – in a state with a 2:1 dem registration advantage. Of the precincts we are tracking, Republican precincts are turning out 3% higher than Dem precincts off 2004 turnout (51-43).

MISSOURI

Of the precincts we are tracking, Republican precincts are turning out 2.6% higher than Dem precincts (42.3% to 39.7%) based off of the 2004 vote. 2004 exit polls had a 3% dem bias.

OHIO:

In 2004, exit polling was off by almost 9% (they had Kerry winning by almost 7%, we won by 2%)

TENNESSEE

(not much to say here…turnout looks against us, no exit polling from ’04 and absentee data is from MT data) In precinct turnout tracking, dem precincts are turning out 1% higher off 2004 vote. We estimate a 1% advantage on the absentee voting.

VIRGINIA:

In 2004, exit polling had the presidential within 1%, yet President Bush won by over 8%. Of the precincts we are tracking, GOP precincts are turning out at 48% of 2004’s turnout while Dem precincts are only at 41%.

Posted at 05:17 PM


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2006election
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To: Halls

41 posted on 11/07/2006 3:07:55 PM PST by txhurl
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To: TnGOP

I hope you are right. I hope people see past what Ford is saying in TN and pay attention to what he actually voted in DC.


42 posted on 11/07/2006 3:08:48 PM PST by pnz1 (Halp!)
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To: beaversmom

It's only 3PM here on the left coast... The poll won't be closed until 8PM.


43 posted on 11/07/2006 3:09:00 PM PST by Toidylop
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To: Toidylop

Oh okay. I'm looking at my clock that is still one hour ahead and our polls here in CO close at 7:00. I'm calm now but in a second or two I'm sure I'll be hysterical again.


44 posted on 11/07/2006 3:10:41 PM PST by beaversmom
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To: Halls
I have a grip thanks, I was simply reporting what I heard!

You reported what everyone pretty much already knows.

I haven't heard a single Dem OR GOP political pundit who disagrees with you.

But we must not upset those who still remain in denial.

45 posted on 11/07/2006 3:10:54 PM PST by Jorge
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To: Halls

I'm hearing that Dewey defeats Truman!


46 posted on 11/07/2006 3:11:06 PM PST by BJClinton (Saddam Hussein had a nuclear weapons program)
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To: All
If we are having a higher turnout now than 2004 it will not be a disaster for the GOP.
47 posted on 11/07/2006 3:11:08 PM PST by jrooney ( Hold your cards close.)
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To: Hildy

Why get depressed!!! Have we learned NOTHING from last election? Keep in mind that about this time last election, WE WERE LOSING BIG...


48 posted on 11/07/2006 3:11:18 PM PST by Toidylop
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To: trustandobey
Don't panic yet, remember what Rush and Sean say pay no attention to the early polls.

The trick with the MSM is to watch their lips, if they move, the MSM is lying.

49 posted on 11/07/2006 3:11:52 PM PST by magslinger (When Law enforcement enforce idiotic Laws of Bad Politicians there are no good guys.-Phantom Patriot)
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To: Toidylop

Major Garrett reporting Hastert's office has warned GOPers that the loss is 30 seats.


50 posted on 11/07/2006 3:12:07 PM PST by M. Thatcher
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To: jrooney
ABC news blog, please. Do us a favor and chill on quoting crap like that.

FOX News just reported basically the same thing.

51 posted on 11/07/2006 3:12:14 PM PST by Jorge
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To: Toidylop

I was listening to local radio 2004 in the evening and they were reporting that Ohio was going to Kerry. You could just hear the wind go out of the local conservative guy's sails.


52 posted on 11/07/2006 3:13:03 PM PST by beaversmom
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To: I Hired Craig Livingstone
Well, the House can do incredible damage without the Senate. They can conduct endless oversight hearings, issue countless subpoenas, start impeachment hearings, etc. They can also fail to appropriate any funds or only partial funds for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The Speaker and committee chair lineup will be a real house of horrors of anti-Americanism. If we lose the House we will soldier on, but the enemy will have more than a beachhead to greatly weaken the President and to create a Vietnam scenario out of Iraq.
53 posted on 11/07/2006 3:13:51 PM PST by Truth29
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To: M. Thatcher
Hastert's office has warned GOPers that the loss is 30 seats.

Hastert must therefore be a MSM liberal troll :)

54 posted on 11/07/2006 3:13:57 PM PST by Jorge
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To: Halls; All

Sorry, I won't hold my tounge, I believe in free speech and going to report what I'm hearing, whether it is good news or bad!

Sean has Rasmussen on saying it isn't looking good for us and I'm simply relaying the info. I hope I'm wrong, but I'm not going to hold my tounge over it, thanks!


I heard it also, Mark Levin was telling Sean not enough conservatives are voting. Call everyone you know, tell them to GO VOTE!


55 posted on 11/07/2006 3:14:16 PM PST by Ellesu
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To: I Hired Craig Livingstone

Ah gee, Nora O'Donnell and Chris Matthews are all smiles.


56 posted on 11/07/2006 3:14:50 PM PST by beaversmom
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To: Truth29

I hear you -- I was just trying to say that even if the house is lost the Senate is still worth fighting for over the next few hours.


57 posted on 11/07/2006 3:15:51 PM PST by I Hired Craig Livingstone
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To: M. Thatcher

If the Republicans lose 30 seats in the House, then they will lose the Senate, too. I'm still holding out hope, based on the 2004 exit poll failures.


58 posted on 11/07/2006 3:16:56 PM PST by Azzurri
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To: Ellesu
Scott Rassmussen was not even reporting on exit polls. He was rehashing his dismal gloom and doom polls from yesterday. I turned Hannity off when he had Rassmussen's old news.

You don't have to hold your tongue, but at least be honest about what you are "reporting".

59 posted on 11/07/2006 3:17:24 PM PST by A Citizen Reporter (Sign at World Series in St. Louis, October 27, 2006 "The Experts are Idiots")
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To: M. Thatcher

And Hastert's office would not confirm that report.


60 posted on 11/07/2006 3:18:02 PM PST by A Citizen Reporter (Sign at World Series in St. Louis, October 27, 2006 "The Experts are Idiots")
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