A few folks need to chill. Be like Fonzie. Be cool.
Posted on 11/07/2006 2:49:23 PM PST by I Hired Craig Livingstone
The RNC is sending this memo to surrogates this afternoon.
NATIONAL
Of the precincts that the RNC is monitoring turnout, we have a ½% turnout advantage over the 2004 turnout (GOP precincts are turning out at 32.9% of 2004 vote while DEM precincts are turning out at 32.5% of 2004 vote) Many states like Colorado, Nevada, Arizona have 25% of votes cast before election day.
ARIZONA
There were 60K more ballots submitted by Republicans before Election Day – and 41% of the state has already voted. In 2004 Exit Polling was off by 3.5% (they had it at 7%, actual results was 10.5%)
CONNECTICUT
In the precincts that the RNC is tracking turnout, GOP precincts are turning out at 8% higher rate (42% to 34%) from the 2004 vote.
FLORIDA
Republicans have a 140K advantage though absentee and early voting before Election Day – and 36% of the state has already voted. Exit polling got it wrong in 2000 and wrong in 2004 (4% off in 2004)
MARYLAND:
Republican absentees had pulled within even of Democrats before Election Day – in a state with a 2:1 dem registration advantage. Of the precincts we are tracking, Republican precincts are turning out 3% higher than Dem precincts off 2004 turnout (51-43).
MISSOURI
Of the precincts we are tracking, Republican precincts are turning out 2.6% higher than Dem precincts (42.3% to 39.7%) based off of the 2004 vote. 2004 exit polls had a 3% dem bias.
OHIO:
In 2004, exit polling was off by almost 9% (they had Kerry winning by almost 7%, we won by 2%)
TENNESSEE
(not much to say here…turnout looks against us, no exit polling from ’04 and absentee data is from MT data) In precinct turnout tracking, dem precincts are turning out 1% higher off 2004 vote. We estimate a 1% advantage on the absentee voting.
VIRGINIA:
In 2004, exit polling had the presidential within 1%, yet President Bush won by over 8%. Of the precincts we are tracking, GOP precincts are turning out at 48% of 2004’s turnout while Dem precincts are only at 41%.
Posted at 05:17 PM
Sean was talking about the early exit polls which show a GOP disaster! Since they were right in 2004
"NO, because the numbers above show a tiny advantage (~1pt) and Ford is behind something like 10 points."
Well if he does win the MSM Headlines will be "White Conservatives Stay Home" rather than "Voters Approve Ford's Tough Immigration Stand."
From where? Geez, from every rooftop!
Yes,
Please hold your tongue on statements like that. Morris was going off of the public polls that had been released last week, not the ones yesterday. he made his prediction before then. Internal polling for GOP looks good, better than donks. We will maintain both the house and the senate.
Hey, the polls are not even closed...get a grip.
No. It won't even be close.
Not sure what this is saying. It could be that the RATS are turning out in the repulican districts as well. This is an off year election with huge turnout? Are the republicans really that energized?
it is up on drudge now re: ABC exit polls, everyone hates bush.
Exit polls have been released.
Gore is winning Florida
Kerry is winning everything
[I am in Sodrel's IN-09 district and live in a conservative precinct. It was dead today.]
I am in Julia Carson's district IN-07 and personally take credit for getting 4 additional voters to the polls in my district to get Dickerson elected. This one is very tight and largely overlooked by the MSM.
'Speaker Nancy Pelosi' is an awesome motivator.
I have a grip thanks, I was simply reporting what I heard!
"Then don't....people haven't voted yet."Three fourth of my coworkers (95% conservatives where I work) have not voted... They're going to vote right after work, 2 hours from now. ARRGGGGHH.
A few folks need to chill. Be like Fonzie. Be cool.
I'm depressed now. Chris Wallace's exit poll information was very, very bad for us....But then again, the exit polling is done in the afternoon. They were proven so wrong last election, why are they doing it again this year?
"ABC exit polls, everyone hates bush"
No release of polls on people actually running in 2006? Good News!
Sorry, I won't hold my tounge, I believe in free speech and going to report what I'm hearing, whether it is good news or bad!
Sean has Rasmussen on saying it isn't looking good for us and I'm simply relaying the info. I hope I'm wrong, but I'm not going to hold my tounge over it, thanks!
Talk about leaving it until the last minute. What the heck are they waiting for!?!
"Sean was talking about the early exit polls which show a GOP disaster!"
I'm always shocked when Republicans of stature become hysterical at easily-manipulated early exit polls. Do they not remember 2004.
Many members of the wuss gang at NRO fall into this same trap - they report this nonsense as if it were fact, in some ways helping it to become a self-fulfilling prophecy. I wish they would just shut up and wait for the polls to close.
Look, it may wind up being a disaster, who knows? But do we have to report this nonsense with only a few hours to go? We'll find out soon enough.
ABC news blog, please. Do us a favor and chill on quoting crap like that. Brian Ross controls that blog and is nothing but a fabricator and a liar.
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