Posted on 11/07/2006 2:49:23 PM PST by I Hired Craig Livingstone
The RNC is sending this memo to surrogates this afternoon.
NATIONAL
Of the precincts that the RNC is monitoring turnout, we have a ½% turnout advantage over the 2004 turnout (GOP precincts are turning out at 32.9% of 2004 vote while DEM precincts are turning out at 32.5% of 2004 vote) Many states like Colorado, Nevada, Arizona have 25% of votes cast before election day.
ARIZONA
There were 60K more ballots submitted by Republicans before Election Day – and 41% of the state has already voted. In 2004 Exit Polling was off by 3.5% (they had it at 7%, actual results was 10.5%)
CONNECTICUT
In the precincts that the RNC is tracking turnout, GOP precincts are turning out at 8% higher rate (42% to 34%) from the 2004 vote.
FLORIDA
Republicans have a 140K advantage though absentee and early voting before Election Day – and 36% of the state has already voted. Exit polling got it wrong in 2000 and wrong in 2004 (4% off in 2004)
MARYLAND:
Republican absentees had pulled within even of Democrats before Election Day – in a state with a 2:1 dem registration advantage. Of the precincts we are tracking, Republican precincts are turning out 3% higher than Dem precincts off 2004 turnout (51-43).
MISSOURI
Of the precincts we are tracking, Republican precincts are turning out 2.6% higher than Dem precincts (42.3% to 39.7%) based off of the 2004 vote. 2004 exit polls had a 3% dem bias.
OHIO:
In 2004, exit polling was off by almost 9% (they had Kerry winning by almost 7%, we won by 2%)
TENNESSEE
(not much to say here…turnout looks against us, no exit polling from ’04 and absentee data is from MT data) In precinct turnout tracking, dem precincts are turning out 1% higher off 2004 vote. We estimate a 1% advantage on the absentee voting.
VIRGINIA:
In 2004, exit polling had the presidential within 1%, yet President Bush won by over 8%. Of the precincts we are tracking, GOP precincts are turning out at 48% of 2004’s turnout while Dem precincts are only at 41%.
Posted at 05:17 PM
I'm hearing we are definately going to lose the house! CRAP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
From where are you hearing this?
The House can't do anything without the Senate.
Are'nt these turnout numbers better than expected?
Sean Hannity show!
Well, i hope so and I hope I'm wrong, I only reported what I heard, not what I want.
From Hannity? I thought he had Rove on and the "Magnificent Bastard" said he was confident we would hold both.
Don't panic yet, remember what Rush and Sean say pay no attention to the early polls.
I am in Sodrel's IN-09 district and live in a conservative precinct. It was dead today.
Still hoping for the best.
Sean said it or was it someone like Dickie Morris?
Don't listen to the rumors....
They're better than *I* expected.
"Are'nt these turnout numbers better than expected?"
Oh, you read the post...
Tennessee is interesting ...could Ford win?
I'm trying not to!
Then don't....people haven't voted yet.
Exactly!!! Steady as she goes
NO, because the numbers above show a tiny advantage (~1pt) and Ford is behind something like 10 points.
AH! So they're just repeating what the enemedia's been telling the world for the last five months, then?
Okay. I can breathe.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.