Considering voter registration in the district favors Democrats 2-1, it would take a miracle. Irey has run about as good of a campaign as you can run, but she has long odds to overcome.
So, how come Kerry only beat Bush by less than 3% in that district?
Optimism has run amok in this race. She won't win because, like you said, there are more Democrats than Republicans in this district. I know what I'm talking about because I live in Massachusetts where the entire state has a pro-Democratic Party ratio of 3 to 1 over all other political parties. She should of ran in a "Republican friendly" district, and maybe she will do just that sometime in the future.
Do you live in the district? The district only went for Kerry in 04 by 51%. What does that tell you? These aren't liberal, gay marriage, cut-and-run Democrats. Your analysis is way too superficial. Put your money on Irey.