[jmaroneps37]

Relax. Take a deep breath and think. Real Clear is just averaging Democrat leaning polls. Real Clear does not do it's own polling. The polls are always a lagging indicator.

The tip off is that they don't have Indiana 7 on the radar. Eric Dickerson is going to win that race. He is up 3 45 /42 with 13 "undecideds" they are not undecided. They are just not ready to tell a pollster they won't be voting Democrat this year. Eric's race is a microcosm of the Black vote around the country. You think that if 33% of Blacks in Maryland are SAYING they will vote for Steele, there aren't more, maybe up to 38% who will and some who will be so flushed they won't vote for anybody. We benefit from that.

[Welike ike]

JMARONE, we all know the GOP will keep the House and Senate.

Many here are deservedly nervous, but GOTV will save the day in this low Turnout election.

It will not be pretty, but America will come to its senses in these last 10 days and reject Pelosi and Gay Rights, and support National Security and tax cuts.

[NeoCaveman]

The tip off is that they don't have Indiana 7 on the radar. Eric Dickerson is going to win that race.

Not to mention that running Erick Dickerson (not the running back) in Indianapolis would be like running Bernie Kosar (not the QB) in Cleveland. It's a name that means votes.

[Rokke]

"Relax. Take a deep breath and think. Real Clear is just averaging Democrat leaning polls. Real Clear does not do it's own polling. The polls are always a lagging indicator."

Yes, yes, yes, yes, and yes. Thanks for introducing some reality to this thread.

[SkyPilot]

The polls are always a lagging indicator.

Bingo.

The James "Banana" Webb dust up happened before the latest polls. The smart pundits believe this ugly incident has national implications - just as the MSM and the Democrats cheered when the Foley fiasco hit.

The poll numbers from this Wed or Thurs should be very interesting.

[LS]

All: just returned from a conference at Hillsdale College. Some BIG names there, including George Gilder, a Fed Reserve director, and some big academics. At any rate, two things:

1) On the way up, at the Mich. border, I heard two ads. One was Lee Iacocca (a Dem) doing a very good ad for Dick DeVos!!! A second was Granholm . . . virtually BEGGING the Dem base to come out, saying "now's not the time to stay home." What does this tell you about the Dems' confidence in their ability to get out the vote.

Second, I spoke to a statistician who had worked on several Michigan campaigns. He AGREED with my take on the polls (no, he didn't fully subscribe to the LS rule of subracting 5 from the Dem and adding 5 to the R, but he did agree they were substantially off). He had a different take that I did on why: I say it's because they oversample Dems, he said it's because they oversample WOMEN, who tend to be more Democratic. Interesting. He thought Blackwell and Dewine were both down mid-single digits . . . exactly where I think they are.

Finally, he pointed out that John Engler, in his first election, was down 13 on the Friday before the election, and won; and that Spence Abraham was down double digits in his senate race on the weekend before the election, and won.

He also pointed out that in his polling, he found that blacks, when asked about a name (esp. if they know the party) will often select the Dem out of intimidation or whatever. When asked to choose between PICTURES of candidates---Blackwell or Strickland---that they were far more likely to pick the R.