RealClearPolitics Posts Polling Data on Current Rep. House Seats -- 8 "Lean Dem," 16 "Toss Up"

RealClearPolitics.com ^ | October 28, 2006 | RCP Polling Links

[Recovering_Democrat]

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[Owen]

People. Stop. Think.

The GOP is SUPPOSED to lose some seats this year because the party in power usually does in an off-year election. Losing a handful of seats is an enormous victory -- for the profound reason that all of the attempts by the Democrats to create some impression of this being some huge tidal wave year would be proven false.

This is all just normal politics that is no different than the vast majority of other off year elections. 1994 was an aberration. That's not the norm. The norm is the party in power has more seats to defend and tends to lose some of them.

So relax. If the GOP loses 1-2 Senate seats and up to 10 House seats, it means the American people AGAIN indicate support for GOP policies and elected to return the GOP to power.

So stop with any sort of negativism and focus your intensity towards making your hotel reservations in vulnerable districts so you can help the GOTV effort in the final 72 hr push.

[Welike ike]

ST. J thanks for the post, but you must realize that everything thing RCP is based on Polling only. And most of their substance comes form Newsweek, PEW polls etc.. mate.

They were only good in 2004 because the polling was more accurate do to an Presidential election year were More people where answering their phones and turnout was high. This will be a low turnout election which will benefit GOTV.

Melissa Bean is in big trouble in the IL 8th along with Barrow in GA, they will both lose.

[Gritty]

Besides, my wife and I already voted so he's got at least 2 votes! ;^)

Make that 4 votes.

[Dems_R_Losers]

The NRCC has already spent a staggering $61 million on House races. Republican and like-minded groups are vastly outspending the Democrats and liberal groups in the Pennsylvania suburban races. Much of the spending was for buying advertising time and producing mail that have not been seen yet. Republicans are going to swamp Democrats on the air, mail, and on the ground in these last 10 days.

My husband just got a VERY suspicious mailer showing all the social issues (gay marriage, abortion, embryonic stem cell research, gun control) on which Bob Casey agrees with Rick Santorum. Since he is a Democrat, I believe this mailing is meant to suppress Democrat votes. There is some pretty interesting stuff being done by the NRA and National Right to Life in Pennsylvania too.

[Welike ike]

Soul, the GOP will keep the House. If after all the bias polling and Foley garbage, the DEMS can only muster 16 seats at this point?

GOTV will save 5 to 7 seats and knock off BEAN and Barrow.

[Congressman Billybob]

To put some perspective on your comment, there was exactly ONE time in American history when one leading party had all of the wins and the other had all of the losses. That was in 1994, and was due to the brand-new but entirely legal donations shifting process that Speaker Gingrich installed in that election.

In every other election since 1791 (the first reelection opportunity) the "losing" party still managed to pick up at least one seat from the "winning" party. And that is a powerful fact which kicks in the 2 for 1 math. If the Dems lose one of their seats to the Reps, they have to win two additional Rep seats to make up for it. One is to cover the loss, the other is to make progress.

So, just one take-away from the Dems mean they have to gain 17 Rep seats to make their goal. This rule is clearest in the Senate. Just one Rep win in a Dem state like NJ or Md. and the game is over for any pretense of Dem's taking control of the Senate.

My prediction that the Reps will keep control of both Houses is based on the historically-backed assumption that the Reps will take at least one Dem seat in each House. And the math is, it's then all over except for the shouting.

Congressman Billybob

Latest article: "Recess at Salisbury State"

Please see my most recent new statement on running for Congress, here.

[HitmanLV]

The Irey crowd on FR must be utterly astonished.

[Welike ike]

JMARONE, we all know the GOP will keep the House and Senate.

Many here are deservedly nervous, but GOTV will save the day in this low Turnout election.

It will not be pretty, but America will come to its senses in these last 10 days and reject Pelosi and Gay Rights, and support National Security and tax cuts.

[HitmanLV]

And here is where I have a bit of a problem - NO Dem'crat seats are in play?

That's not inconceivable. Can you name five dem-held House seats that the GOP has a serious chance of picking up? I can't.

[Starboard]

I obviously want us to win, but if it is going to be one or two seats either way, we may be better off from a strategic standpoint having the RATs control the House for two years.

I see your point (count on Dims to over play their hand), but there would be two years of non-stop hearings and investigations, with a sympathetic media providing round the clock saturation coverage. Dems would not be able to accomplish much legislatively, but they could make lots of noise.

[Welike ike]

Jaques, thy key word is CURRENT my friend. Since when do we vote on the last Saturday of October?

Good post though bud.

[nopardons]

BTTT

[Welike ike]

Billybob, I agree. Great historical reference.

Even in the bloodshed of 1974 and watergate, the GOP managed to knock off three DEM incumbents in the House.

In 1994, DEMS won a GOP house seat in Kentucky (WARD)>

[Alter Kaker]

Rob Simmons is listed as a toss-up. He was listed as a toss-up 2 years ago and won handily. His work in saving the Submarine Base from the Brac list will make all the difference.

Hope you're right. Courtney's a much stronger and better funded candidate than Sullivan was in 2004; also 2006 is a very different election climate than 2004. And of course CT-02 is the most Democratic district in the country represented by a Pubbie.

[NeoCaveman]

The tip off is that they don't have Indiana 7 on the radar. Eric Dickerson is going to win that race.

Not to mention that running Erick Dickerson (not the running back) in Indianapolis would be like running Bernie Kosar (not the QB) in Cleveland. It's a name that means votes.

[Political Junkie Too]

Can you name five dem-held House seats that the GOP has a serious chance of picking up?

I guess even Jefferson's seat in LA-2 is a safe Democrat, even if Jefferson loses?

-PJ

[NeoCaveman]

That's not inconceivable. Can you name five dem-held House seats that the GOP has a serious chance of picking up? I can't.

Melissa Bean's seat in IL, The two Georgia seats, Spratt in South Carolina, and that Carson lady in IN-7

[latina4dubya]

Some polls can lie but we are just stupid if we dont see this election cycle as a very tough one for Republicans.

is anyone "credible" saying this election cycle is not a very tough one for Republicans? i don't think even Rove is saying that...

[shield]

bttt