Tropical depression may form in Caribbean Thursday (Would be Joyce)

Reuters ^ | Oct. 12, 2006 | Reuters

[varina davis]

Tropical depression may form in Caribbean Thursday

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Oct 12, 7:32 AM (ET)

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A low-pressure system in the northeastern Caribbean Sea could develop into a tropical depression over the next day or so, the National Hurricane Center said in an outlook issued Thursday.

The system, moving northwestward at about 10 to 15 miles per hour, could cause some flooding and mudslides over mountainous terrain. It was located about 50 miles south of Nevis and St. Kitts.

The weather models split on what the system will do over the next several days.

A couple of the models projected the storm would turn west across the Caribbean, remaining south of the Greater Antilles, and heading toward Nicaragua and Honduras. Other models showed the storm continuing northwest toward Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

The Greater Antilles include Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola (Haiti and the Dominican Republic) and Puerto Rico.

If the system ultimately strengthens into a tropical storm, packing maximum wind speeds of 39 to 73 mph, the NHC would name it Joyce.

[varina davis]

That's true, but given the latitude of possible TS Joyce, I don't think it will be affected that much.

[CindyDawg]

It was just something I was looking at WU. Thinks do seem to be heating up.

[varina davis]

"Weather reports with "may" in them are useless."

Not really. If you've ever been through a TS or 'Cane, you would want to be forewarned as early as possible.

[JimRed]

desparate

desperate...spell check doesn't help a lot when there are hominyms...

[NaughtiusMaximus]

We're all (potentially) DOOMED!

[capt. norm]

That's true, but given the latitude of possible TS Joyce, I don't think it will be affected that much.

Didn't say it would. What will likely happen is that the cold airmass approaching Florida will prevent the storm from making landfall here.

I retired from 32 years of hurricane forecasting here and I have seen this scenario a number of times. It's not a function of the calendar. It's all about continental air-masses and the change in the winds aloft that accompany them this time of year.

Today's upper air soundings over Tallahassee show that we already have vigorous westerlies up there and they will increase and become northwesterly. This is the current SKEWT from Tallahassee:

Winds at that level (and velocity) can easily steer a tropical storm or hurricane....or destroy one.

[varina davis]

That's very true. Thanks for the info and graph.

[ecomcon]

Might go east, north, or west. Well, that narrows it down.

[mpackard]

Hey that's my middle name and only SOME people think I'm a windbag!!! : )

[CindyDawg]

Every Joyce that I know is a "talker" :')