Posted on 10/09/2006 11:04:46 AM PDT by lizol
Political tremors hit Central Europe
By Jan Repa BBC Central Europe analyst
In the last few weeks, Hungary has seen the biggest anti-government protests since the fall of communism.
In the Czech Republic, the government has just resigned after failing, since parliamentary elections in June, to assemble a working majority.
Poland's parliament is expected in a few days' time to vote on an opposition motion calling for early elections, following a break-up of the governing coalition of conservatives and populists.
Four months ago, Slovak voters threw out a reforming liberal-centre right coalition, much favoured by Slovakia's Western partners, and replaced it with a populist-nationalist coalition.
Is there a common thread here? Or is this mere coincidence?
Certainly the Czech Republic's governmental impasse can be attributed to bad luck and arithmetic.
There happen to be 200 seats in parliament. Parties to the right and left won exactly 100 seats each. Result: no majority.
In theory, all that is needed is a legislative amendment creating 199 or 201 seats.
Poland's current image of an awkward, conservative, rather inward-looking country might have been very different if the liberal, pro-EU opposition Civic Platform had won a few more percentage points in last year's elections.
If elections were held tomorrow, opinion polls suggest it would be a clear winner: which is one reason why Poland's governing parties are not keen on early elections.
EU hangover
Taking a more sociological approach, two factors appear to come into play.
Both are connected to membership of the European Union, which all four countries finally achieved in 2004.
Preparations for membership meant fulfilling various entry criteria - and contributed to a large measure of policy consensus, particularly concerning the general economic strategy.
That element of restraint is no longer present.
The second factor relates to public expectations.
All four Central European economies are growing strongly. They are much bigger and far more modern than they were when communism fell.
But the gap between them and the prosperous countries of Western Europe remains large - and the frustration is all the more keenly felt now that everyone is in the EU.
Short-term measures
Does a bout of political instability matter in these circumstances?
In some ways, probably not.
Apart from Hungary, with its large budget deficit, their public finances are in reasonable shape.
Inward investment continues apace. Even Poland's notoriously high unemployment rate has fallen from 20% three years ago to just over 15%.
In other ways it does matter. Difficult policy decisions - particularly in areas like social welfare reform - are put off; while foreign policy comes to be characterised by ad hoc initiatives and reactions, calculated for short-term effect.
It's too bad these countries are tying their future to socialists of one stripe or another. Imagine what might happen if at least one of these countries adopted a true free market economy.
Here's wishing each country success in reaching for its dreams for a brighter and better future.
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