What is your view on where this seat sits in terms of vulnerability now?
If Mark Foley's name remains on the ballot then I think it's Lean to Likely Dem. I don't think 50%+1 (including the vast majority of conservatives) will vote for the name of a pedophile, even if it's a euphemism for 'special election'. If Mark Foley's name gets replaced I think it's probably weak Lean GOP, unless the Pubbie is very well-funded, in which case it should be strong Lean GOP.