[AntiGuv]

If Mark Foley's name remains on the ballot then I think it's Lean to Likely Dem. I don't think 50%+1 (including the vast majority of conservatives) will vote for the name of a pedophile, even if it's a euphemism for 'special election'. If Mark Foley's name gets replaced I think it's probably weak Lean GOP, unless the Pubbie is very well-funded, in which case it should be strong Lean GOP.

[Political Junkie Too]

even if it's a euphemism for 'special election'.

It wouldn't be a euphemism for special election, there could be a separate special election simultaneous with the general election. The Special Election would have the real candidate's name on it. You would then coordinate the campaign message for the candidate to say that, oh by the way, Mark Foley on the other ballot is really me here on the Special Election.

But still two separate elections at the same time.

-PJ

[Dane]

If Mark Foley's name remains on the ballot then I think it's Lean to Likely Dem.

Per Florida law, foley's name will stay on the ballot, but that doesn't stop the GOP from getting another candidate and also putting it out to the GOTV effort can rectify it, despite your doom and gloom.