Posted on 09/19/2006 10:45:46 AM PDT by staytrue
According to Rasmussen pollling, Chafee is down by 8, Burns is down by 9, Dewine is down by 6, Talent is down by 3, Santorum is down by 8.
That makes for minus 5 for the republicans.
Rasmussen also has the Corker up by 1 over Ford in TN and Kean up by 5 over Menedez.
If Ford and Menedez pull out wins along with the other dems holding the leads, the dems take control of the Senate.
We need a win somewhere in these 7 races to get a 50-50 tie.
I think Santorum, at least, is going to win.
If frogs had wings.
as they say, if this doesn't fire up the base..
You forget the incumbent edge present in all elections.
Only Tennessee gives inspiration to those who dream of a turnover absent some defining moment come election day.
Your mistake is confusing junk polling for reality.
"If frogs had wings."
Would Hooters waitresses wear green?
Tell us more about the poll. Was this likely voters or registered voters? Did they poll an equal amount of Dems and Republicans? How many Independents? I am always suspicious of polls-even from Rasmusson.
If the election were today Burns would win, Talent would win, Corker as much as it makes my teeth hurt would win, Chafee would lose, kean would probably lose and Santorum it's hard to say.
You can cite polls.
I'll cite my belief in conservatives who are too angry to give good poll ratings to turn out the vote in red states to save the "better" Republicans. I make no such promises for RINO's (Chafee) or those in Dem leaning states (santorum). I DO want santorum to win, but it's going to be hard fought to the end.
The election is NOT being held today and there is a lot of electioneering to be done between now and November 7th. Many of the campaigns are just now switching from primary to general mode. There will be ups and downs, but we can all hope that our side hits election day on an up. Don't panic!
I believe that Santorum and Talent will win.
Of those races, I suspect the GOP will win:
1. MT, if the Dim is a loony as I have seen described MT is not going to ultimately vote for him.
2. MO
3. TN this is called the Harvey Gant effect.
4. NJ
5. OH again ultimately a GOP state and the Dim is seriously left.
6. maybe MD in a reverse Harvey Gant effect.
Ummm. The election is on November 8, right?
I didn't think it was today!
Keep your eye on the ball. The 'Pubbies are trending in the right direction. Things are gonna turn out just fine...
...And sign up for GOTV, just to make sure.
OOps! Republicans vote on November 7th. Democrats vote on November 8th. My mistake!
go here for the polling data
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/Election%20Polls%202006.htm
From what I can see, one of the problems in this election cycle is that a lot of truly conservative Republicans, both on the secular and Christian sides, are tired. They're tired of RINOs, in particular. What difference does that make?
Well, I think that it's cut down on the number of enthusiastic campaigners out there, and that's got to hurt GOP chances in some races.
It's tough to get disgruntled conservatives out to work on campaigns to elect or re-elect candidates they don't particularly like very much.
Some folks right here on Free Republic have indicated that they may just sit this election out. A lot of those won't follow through with that, and will go and vote. But their energy is not there for the campaigns, and that's going to hurt general GOP turnout, as well as campaign funds.
How many times have we seen people saying that they're simply not giving the GOP any more money until one thing or another gets changed?
Personally, I think that the optimism I'm seeing for some of these highly questionable races is not justified.
"as they say, if this doesn't fire up the base.."
Do you really think "the base" will be fired up to support the likes of Caffee or Dewine?
The only poll that counts is the one caused by the voters on election day. All else is Barbra Striesand.
If the election were today, I'd vote for the tax cut....
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.