There has been considerable RUMINT about this the past couple of years too. Mir has a little credability, although I wonder just how much AQ is willing to tip their hand to a journalist who will publish their discussions. I would think that AQ would have better OPSEC regarding an operation larger than 911.
I am still skeptical whether or not AQ has a functional nuke. If they do, it would exceed 911 as bragged about. However, I think it more likely a dirty bomb(s) would be used at this stage. Much easier to produce, hide and handle. Incorporated in multiple vehicle bombs at the abundance of soft targets here would generate a great deal of fear.
Timing? We've seen how they were willing to time the attack in Spain to swing the election to a more favorable government. Would they bet that an attack before the November elections would help or hurt them. They would have to target and spin the attack(s) in such a manner to deflect American anger away from Republicans (whom voters generally favor on the WOT/Security issues)and toward the Dems (Bush's plans have failed, and the Pubbies have failed...etc). Do they think the 5 years of the MSM hammering on the WOT has set them up to pull off a power change in Washington? Big gamble for them as it has been made clear by the Bush administration that AQ will continue to probe for a weakness in our security system and are bound to find one sooner or later.
Good point about the elections.
Agreed. A functioning device is the nightmare scenario I hesitate to even contemplate. However the so called dirty bomb scenario is much more "doable" albeit would be significantly less destructive than 911, IMHO. Unless you're right on top of the H.E. when it detonates, which is where the true killing power lies. The irradiated material presents little hazzard unless it is somehow ingested or inhaled in fairly significant concentrations.
But a dirty bomb would gain so much propaganda value it would seem as if 911 were magnified. It would be as if were had been nuked for real. But all in all, given a choice I'll take the dirty bomb with low grade nuclear material wrapped around conventional high explosive (Cemtex?) over the real deal with gamma rays, blast damage, over pressure and an all consuming firestorm ...... anyday.