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Posted on 08/30/2006 6:30:12 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Ernesto is poised to emerge into Atlantic waters after feebly creeping along the Florida peninsula. Media pundits with tremulous cameras dotted Florida's extensive coastline for the past 24 hours, showing video of children playing in the sand, dark skies, and occasional rain.
Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect from Sebastian Inlet Florida to Cape Lookout North Carolina, as Ernesto moves north at 15mph. The storm's intensity and forecast track has puzzled forecasters for several days.
N.C. Governor Mike Easley and S.C. Governor Mark Sanford activated the National Guard today in their respective states, as the forecast track indicated Ernesto may regain tropical storm force winds, and make landfall again along the Carolinas coastline.
Public Advisories Updated every three hours.
Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours
Ernesto Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 3 & 5 day forecast tracks
Buoy Data Florida & Eastern GOM
Buoy Data Southeast U.S.
Radar
Jacksonville, FL
Charleston SC
Wilmington NC
RDU NC
Satellite Images
Additional Resources:
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Previous Threads:
Tropical Storm Ernesto
Hurricane Ernesto
TS/Hurricane/TS Ernesto
TS/Hurricane/TS/TD Ernesto
That is weird since NOAA has them at 18, gusting to 24.
There may be a band of calmer air where it isn't raining.
Latest vortex shows pressure is down to 991. And 73 knot flight level winds.
URNT12 KNHC 311956
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/19:47:10Z
B. 32 deg 17 min N
078 deg 50 min W
C. 850 mb 1365 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 005 deg 030 kt
G. 271 deg 016 nm
H. 991 mb
I. 18 C/ 1526 m
J. 20 C/ 1518 m
K. 20 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.03 / 1 nm
P. AF300 2305AWRNESTO OB 07
MAX FL WIND 60 KT NE QUAD 18:54:00 Z
029
SXXX50 KNHC 312007
AF300 2305A ERNESTO HDOB 03 KNHC
1954. 3203N 07830W 01527 5077 237 052 180 180 054 01481 0000000000
1955 3202N 07828W 01519 5074 240 056 164 164 057 01475 0000000000
1955. 3201N 07827W 01529 5071 243 059 172 172 062 01489 0000000000
1956 3200N 07826W 01522 5066 245 071 180 174 073 01487 0000000000
1956. 3158N 07824W 01525 5060 242 072 178 162 073 01496 0000000000
1957 3157N 07823W 01524 5055 243 071 174 160 073 01499 0000000000
1957. 3156N 07822W 01523 5051 242 068 158 158 069 01503 0000000000
1958 3155N 07820W 01524 5047 242 066 156 156 066 01509 0000000000
1958. 3153N 07819W 01526 5042 243 065 156 156 066 01515 0000000000
1959 3152N 07817W 01520 5037 239 066 154 154 067 01515 0000000000
1959. 3151N 07816W 01527 5033 238 066 154 154 067 01525 0000000000
2000 3150N 07815W 01524 5028 235 063 160 160 066 01527 0000000000
2000. 3149N 07813W 01523 5023 233 058 166 166 059 01531 0000000000
2001 3147N 07812W 01524 5020 234 059 168 168 060 01535 0000000000
2001. 3146N 07811W 01525 5018 236 061 164 164 063 01538 0000000000
2002 3145N 07810W 01523 5015 236 061 166 166 062 01539 0000000000
2002. 3144N 07808W 01526 5013 237 059 170 170 059 01544 0000000000
2003 3143N 07807W 01522 5011 238 062 170 168 063 01543 0000000000
2003. 3141N 07806W 01524 5009 240 060 168 158 061 01547 0000000000
2004 3140N 07804W 01527 5005 241 058 172 156 058 01552 0000000000
Great pic!
LOL--I can attest to that. My favorites are the thermometers sitting in direct Florida sunlight recording 104+º, when two thermometers on my porch show 85º. I appreciate Wunderground for everything but their use of personal wx stations appearing as official local readings.
Where are you seeing that? Here's what is listed:
MAX FL WIND 60 KT NE QUAD 18:54:00 Z
And "NA" for eye structure.
Those readings were from the vortex data. Both NOAA and the AF found 73 knot winds in their recons. Just recorded them.
But the latest vortex you just posted shows 60 knot max flight level winds.
They found 60 knot winds when they did the vortex reading. The 73 knot winds were found after that. The airforce has a plane in there right now. NOAA is sending a plane in shortly.
I'm a fan of them... been using the site since it first started. It's one of the few out there that is continually adding cool new things. I would probably agree that they shouldn't show personal data up in the same area they show ASOS/AWOS data as it is not nearly as reliable or accurate.
Seems like folks learned a lesson after Gaston.
It's really looking a lot less impressive than it did three hours ago. I will hold my guess to myself as what the max gusts will be along the coast, but I would be very surprised if any gust exceeding hurricane strength is felt anywhere but over the open water.
one of the meteorologists on our board posted that 73kt ob as well, but i haven't come across it myself.
If that is the case, what is the formula for extending it down to the surface - 85 percent?
The pressure has dropped, so the wind speeds are catching up. It seems to me that it's not moving due north. I wouldn't be surprised if it misses Myrtle Beach and hits the Outer Banks at this point. Of course that keeps it over water longer too.
Indeed, Wunderground's willingness to frequently add new stuff shows their responsiveness to the consumer. I've been a paying customer for years--since the first year they offered "No ads." It's well worth the annual fee.
I think it's 90% from flight level, but I can't find the ob anywhere and he never came back to say where it was from.
I agree that there are not likely to be many winds sustained even at 70mph on land.
I thought it was 80%, but either way, you're looking at 68-70 MPH winds.
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