Hurricane John off of Baja California Mex (UPDATE, UPGRADED CAT 4)

Weather Underground.com ^ | August 29, 2006

[stm]

You're welcome. I don't know how they came up with that distinction, though.

[Bringbackthedraft]

John? What happened to F G H I ?

[ThomasThomas]

No hurricane has hit the California Coast since records began, but a tropical storm with 50 mph winds did come ashore at Long Beach on Sept. 25, 1939.

[Blogger]

Nobody was watching.

[Normal4me]

No, we in Florida have a Thunderstorm coming. ;-)

[CAWats]

Will dubya send planes down to the baja peninsula to evacuate American retirees unlike last year when retirees were stranded on the Yucatan peninsula?

[Blogger]

You found the link I did :)

[Publius]

The last time a Pacfic hurricane hit California was 1977 at the time Elvis died. It was 95 degrees in L.A., pouring sheets of rain and miserable.

Before that, the last Pacific hurricane to hit California was in 1938.

[Republicus2001]

speaking of Baja, there is a Walmart at Cabo now! Many Americanos are buying property there now that an American title insurance company is writing policy...

[NathanR]

Highly unlikely. In the last century, only one tropical storm hit California, that I know of. However, it caused quite a few deaths because people were not expecting it.

The Pacific off California is quite cold, which protects it. The water warms up as it heads south, so Baja occasionally gets one.

[pushforbush]

Hurricane has hit San Diego

http://www.weather.gov/pa/fstories/2005/0105/fs11jan2005b.php

1858 HURRICANE STRUCK SAN DIEGO, SAY RESEARCH METEOROLOGISTS
Jan. 11, 2005 — Most hurricanes affect the United States' East Coast, but the West Coast is also vulnerable, as shown by an 1858 tropical cyclone that brought hurricane-force winds to San Diego. The historical data and contemporary analysis of this event were presented today by a NOAA scientist at the annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society in San Diego, Calif. NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, is an agency of the U.S. Department of Commerce.

"On October 2, 1858, estimated sustained hurricane force winds produced by a tropical cyclone located a short distance offshore were felt in San Diego," said Christopher Landsea, the co-author of a paper on the 1858 hurricane and a hurricane researcher at NOAA's Hurricane Research Division at the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami, Fla. "Extensive damage was done in the city and was described as the severest gale ever felt to that date, nor has it been matched or exceeded in severity since."

[MikefromOhio]

I'm pretty sure they haven't had a Hurricane hit California while it was still classified as a Hurricane.

It was probably remnants of one.....

[Blogger]

Here is the typical scenario

[pushforbush]

On October 2, 1858, estimated sustained hurricane force winds produced by a tropical cyclone located a short distance offshore were felt in San Diego," said Christopher Landsea, the co-author of a paper on the 1858 hurricane and a hurricane researcher at NOAA's Hurricane Research Division at the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami, Fla. "Extensive damage was done in the city and was described as the severest gale ever felt to that date, nor has it been matched or exceeded in severity since."

Coral evidence suggests the ocean was particularly warm that year and, according to a press release from NOAA, "Warmer waters and a conducive atmosphere allowed the hurricane to sustain Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale Category 1 intensity (wind speed of 72-95 mph) as far north as southern California. Available evidence suggests that the hurricane tracked just offshore from San Diego, without the eye coming inland, but close enough to produce damaging winds along the entire coast from San Diego to Long Beach."

Should such a storm return it would cost the region hundreds of millions to billions of dollars in damage according to Christopher Landsea and Michael Chenoweth, authors of the study.

"What this also tells us is that a hurricane has directly affected southern California in recorded history and we should remember that if the conditions are right, the area could get hit again," Landsea said. "Mike and I hope that emergency managers, residents of the area, business owners, the insurance industry, and decision-makers be made aware of this possibility, as most in southern California may think they are completely safe from hurricanes because they are on the Pacific coast instead of the Atlantic."

Impact of Climate Change on Hurricanes

While there is no evidence to suggest that climate change will produce more frequent hurricanes, new research suggests that warmer oceans and seas could produce stronger storms. Late last month an atmospheric scientist at Massachusetts Institute of Technology released a study in Nature that found hurricanes have grown significantly more powerful and destructive over the past three decades. Kerry Emanuel, the author of the study, warns that since hurricanes depend on warm water to form and build, global climate change might increase the effect of hurricanes still further in coming years. It is conceivable that a warmer Pacific could someday enable a hurricane to strike cities farther north, even Los Angeles.

Hurricanes already nearby in Mexico

Hurricanes do batter Baja California (the northernmost state of Mexico, located just south of San Diego) from time to time, usually coinciding with El Niño years. In September 1997, an El Niño year, Hurricane Linda became the strongest storm recorded in the eastern Pacific with winds estimated at 180 mph For a time there was concern that Linda would come ashore in California as a tropical storm, but the storm turned away and the state only experienced high surf and thunderstorms

[steveo]

YEAH death to California and to all Mexicans. Kill them all... that'll make everyone happy.

[stm]

It is a real embarrassment, isn't it? I've seen lots of thunderstorms in NW FL with greater winds than Ernesto. Toss in a few scattered tornados for good measure.

[ThomasThomas]

Many Americanos are buying property there

Mexican doesn't allow any non-citizens to own property in Mexico only lease.

[MikefromOhio]

Another problem is water temperature.

Some hurricanes can survive over 22-26C water and be fine, but most of them end up weakening significantly.



Now this is only this year, but even in years where there is a strong El Nino, the water temps as far south as San Diego are only 22C at the most. That's not warm enough to sustain any Hurricane for very long.....

[markman46]

very rare, one off shore in 97, and one in the 30"s i believe

[stm]

Not that I'm complaining, but it is a little baffling with as hot a summer and mild a winter that we have had in FL, that there have not been more storms. The Gulf and Carribean are very warm this year, which should be like tossing gas on a fire, but it is not happening. I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop in September or early October.