[MikefromOhio]

Another problem is water temperature.

Some hurricanes can survive over 22-26C water and be fine, but most of them end up weakening significantly.



Now this is only this year, but even in years where there is a strong El Nino, the water temps as far south as San Diego are only 22C at the most. That's not warm enough to sustain any Hurricane for very long.....

[stm]

Not that I'm complaining, but it is a little baffling with as hot a summer and mild a winter that we have had in FL, that there have not been more storms. The Gulf and Carribean are very warm this year, which should be like tossing gas on a fire, but it is not happening. I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop in September or early October.

[brytlea]

I had forgotten how cool the ocean water was there (it's been about 25 years since I've been to CA). The water here in FL is like a bathtub most of the time.
susie

[Arthalion]

the water temps as far south as San Diego are only 22C at the most. That's not warm enough to sustain any Hurricane for very long.....

I once heard a meteorologist state that it's theoretically possible for SoCal to be hit by a hurricane, but the odds are incredibly thin. The storm would essentially need to maintain Cat5 strength and beeline straight up the Sea of Cortez. The water IS warm enough to sustain such a storm, but it would need to maintain a precise path to avoid landfall in the relatively narrow channel. If it struck the Colorado River delta at Cat5 strength and with sufficient speed, it could still be a Cat1 or 2 (probably 1) as it crossed northwest over San Diego.

Even more interestingly, the guy also showed how a perfectly aimed storm could re-energize itself if it went straight from the Sea of Cortez to the Salton Sea. The resulting storm would still have hurricane force winds as it hit PALM SPRINGS, and would be a tremendously powerful tropical storm as it hit LA.

He made it clear though, that the whole scenario is one of those one in a million things. The conditions needed for such a hurricane to exist only last for a very short time each year. Too early in the hurricane season, and the northern Sea of Cortez won't have warmed enough. Too late, and the Colorado River will have cooled it too much. The sea has to be hot, the deserts have to be hot, and the hurricane would need to maintain a very specific path and rate of acceleration. It IS possible.