[southernnorthcarolina]

Given that Allen is basically out of the presidential hunt (he might even lose his seat), that sort of creates a vacuum as to a candidate whom some conservatives on social issues in particular would support in a GOP primary in 2008 for president. We seem to be left with Romney, Giuliani and McCain as viable candidates, which is fine with me (of course I would hope McCain won't make it, but that is just my opinion), but not to this particular cohort. Who will fill it? Will such voters drift to McCain and/or Romney, or will some person not currently in the running emerge, and if so who?

No, I don't consider Brownback remotely viable with this cohort (he went "soft" on illegal immigration, is a very poor speaker, and comes across as dull, among other things), so I doubt it will be him. So who is left, that one can reasonably expect might decide to go for it to fill the vacuum, as opposed to those who say they won't, such as Condi Rice (who would probably not fill the bill anyway)? Or is no one left, and the three are the viable choices, in which event some in this neighborhood will not be happy campers?

Torie, I'll give you Mitt, Rudy, and McCain, and take the field, for a cold beer. Now, what "the field" consists of, at this early date, is subject to question. But it seems to me that these three, all with at least some appeal to moderates (which is an insulting term among the true believers), are likely to split the RINO vote, and leave the field clear for some as yet unidentified conservative.

Seems to me that an awful lot of moderate Republicans have been early leaders, or at least viable candidates, for the nomination over the years -- Henry Cabot Lodge, George Romney, Nelson Rockefeller, and of course McCain. Not to be paranoid, but the "Eastern establishment press" has had more than a little to do with pushing moderate candidates for the GOP nomination. Given the likely composition of the GOP primary voters and convention delegates, I have every confidence that the nominee will be right of center.

I'm not ready yet to throw in the towel on George Allen, but of course he'll have to win reelection, and by more than a few votes, to remain viable. Frist's star has ebbed (yes, another mixed metaphor), and he's almost done. Two potential candidates who have said they won't run might yet change their minds. No, not Jeb -- fairly or unfairly, Bush weariness among the electorate rules that out. But Condi -- if the Middle East situation improves, as I think it will -- and my current longshot, Haley Barbour.

There is, of course, a long, long way to go.

[Torie]

OK, Condi and Barbour, both of whom said they won't run. It seems that there is nobody who has not said they won't run, that comes to your mind. Is that a fair summary?