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Some of Golitzen's predictions were correct. However, there is no getting around the fact that, over time, his view has diverged from reality. This does not necessarily prove that some of his original insights were not real. But one of his core, fundamental beliefs---that Russia would pretend to move away from communism while actually not doing so---has turned out not to be true.

Anyone who has been in planning sessions can make educated guesses as to what will happen in the future by looking at history, events, and trends. I have been a multiple lines insurance agent with a major company for 37 years, and it didn't take rocket science to know powerful hurricanes were eventually going to do major damage in southern Florida and New Orleans. Actuaries tell us these events will happen, and can give educated guesses when they will happen, but they are still guessing. Golitsyn was in a position to make educated guesses, and that is all his predictions were...nothing more than guesses. He simply added the caveat that the Soviet Union was a Phoenix and would fly again. As Romanov has pointed out the majority of Golitsyn's predictions were WRONG!