Posted on 08/11/2006 3:58:31 PM PDT by garbageseeker
JERUSALEM - Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert endorsed an emerging Mideast cease-fire deal late Friday, after a day of dramatic day brinksmanship including a threat to expand the ground war in Lebanon.
The agreement calls for the deployment of 30,000 Lebanese and U.N. troops along the Israel-Lebanon border. It falls short of some of Israel's demands, including a strong mandate for the U.N. forces to take on Hezbollah guerrillas.
However, the draft is the best chance yet for peace after more than four weeks of war that has killed more than 800 people, destroyed Lebanon's infrastructure and inflamed tensions across the Middle East.
Neither the Lebanese government nor Hezbollah has said publicly whether they would sign on to the deal, but it was widely assumed that they did not object to it. Plans to take the resolution to a vote were announced in New York shortly after U.S. Mideast envoy, Assistant Secretary of State David Welch, met for a second time Friday with Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Saniora.
Israeli officials said Israel would not halt fighting until Israel's Cabinet has approved the cease-fire deal in its weekly meeting Sunday. It was not immediately clear whether the military would expand its ground offensive in the time remaining, or would only hold existing positions.
Only six hours passed from an initial decision by Olmert to broaden the ground offensive to his acceptance of the cease-fire deal. The zigzag reflected Israel's dilemma after a month of inconclusive fighting.
Israel has been unable to defeat Hezbollah and was concerned about growing Israeli casualties, as well as international condemnation, if the war continued. However, Olmert also feared that accepting a deal that does not rein in the guerrillas could lead to another war down the road and hurt him politically.
Olmert's initial order to send troops deeper into Hezbollah territory came even as U.N. Security Council negotiations reached the final stretch in New York.
Several hours later, France and the United States reached agreement on a final draft, to be put to a vote later Friday. The draft would authorize the deployment of 15,000 U.N. peacekeepers in south Lebanon, along with 15,000 Lebanese troops, into the region "as Israel withdraws."
The Security Council, repeatedly accused of taking too long to come up with a response to fighting, would leave out several key demands from both Israel and Lebanon in efforts to come up with a workable arrangement.
"You never get a deal like this with everybody getting everything that they want," Britain's Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett said. "The question is, has everybody got enough for this to stick and for it to be enforceable? Nobody wants to go back to where we were before this last episode started."
Despite Lebanese objections, Israel will be allowed to continue defensive operations, and a dispute over the Chebaa Farms area along the Syria-Lebanon-Israel border will be left for later. Israel won't get its wish for an entirely new multinational force separate from the U.N. peacekeepers that have been stationed in south Lebanon since 1978.
There is also no call for the release of Lebanese prisoners held by Israel or a demand for the immediate withdrawal of Israeli troops. Although the draft resolution emphasizes the need for the "unconditional release" of the two Israeli soldiers whose July 12 capture by Hezbollah sparked the conflict, that call is not included in the list of steps required for a lasting cease-fire.
The ongoing fighting has killed more than 800 people — including at least 732 Lebanese and 122 Israelis.
After nightfall, there were some signs of troop movement on the Israel-Lebanon border. Battle-ready soldiers carrying heavy backpacks marched near the border as tanks assembled nearby. In south Lebanon, there were no reports of increased troop activity. Israeli officials gave conflicting assessments on whether a wider campaign was under way.
More than 10,000 Israeli troops are already fighting Hezbollah guerrillas in south Lebanon. In the new phase, Israeli forces would push toward Lebanon's Litani River, some 18 miles from the Israel-Lebanon border, attempting to capture more than twice as much territory as they hold now.
Olmert has faced growing criticism at home for the army's inability to halt the rocket barrages; Hezbollah has fired more than 3,500 rockets in the monthlong war. Polls also indicated that his initially approval rating, high at the start of the war, was slipping.
Commentators have suggested Olmert's political career was at stake, and that he might even be forced to step down. Many Israelis believe defeating Hezbollah is essential for their country's long-term security.
In Lebanon, Israeli airstrikes pounded south Beirut and border crossings to Syria, killing at least 15 people as ground fighting picked up intensity in the south of the country.
In the Bekaa Valley, an Israeli drone fired missiles into a convoy of refugees fleeing attacks in the southern town of Marjayoun, killing at least six people and wounding 16 others, an Associated Press photographer said.
The Israeli military said it had no knowledge of the incident. The army noted that it had imposed a travel ban on south Lebanon, and had received no request to coordinate a convoy in that area.
Throughout the day, civilians had been fleeing fighting in the Christian town of Marjayoun in long convoys after Israeli forces entered earlier this week.
Lutfallah Daher, the photographer, was with the convoy when it was hit near the town of Chtaura, about 30 miles north of the Litani River. Israel had warned it would attack any vehicle on roads south of the Litani, assuming it was carrying Hezbollah weapons or fighters.
Daher said the convoy consisted of more than 600 civilian vehicles and others carrying a detachment of 350 Lebanese soldiers and police when it left the area around Marjayoun. He said very few of the vehicles had left the convoy when it was hit.
Summary of Draft Resolution
PP1. Recalls all previous resolutions on Lebanon, including 1559!!! (I think they mean, recall, as in enforce these, not as in take them away) - poor wording in my opinion
PP2. Expresses concern over the continuing escalation of hostilities in Lebanon and in Israel.
PP3. Emphasizes the need for an end of violence, but at the same time empahiszing the need to address urgently the causes that have given rise to the current crisis. Including the unconditional release of the abducted Israeli soldiers.
PP4. Encourage settling the issue of prisoners in Lebanon.
PP5. Supports the Lebanon seven-point plan, to extend its authority over its territory.
PP6. Determined to have all of this happen right away...
PP7. "Taking due note" of the proposals make in the seven-point plan regarding the Shebaa farms area,
PP8. Deploys a Lebanese armed force of 15,000 to the border. Allows additional UNIFIL forces as needed.
PP9. Everyone agrees in their responsibilities to a long-term solution.
PP10. The situation in Lebanon constitutes a threat to international peace and security.
OP1. Calls for a full cessation of hostilities...on both sides
OP2. Once there is a full cessation of hostilities, then calls on Lebanon and UNIFIL to move south.
OP3. Emphasizes the importance of Lebanon taking control of it's territory.
OP4. Reiterates its strong support for full respect for the Blue Line
OP5. Calls on both parties to recall their previous support for the Israeli-Lebanese General Armistice Agreement of 23 March 1949
OP6. Calls on the international community to financially help Lebanon rebuild.
OP7. Calls on both parties to not take any actions that would mess up PP1.
OP8. Calls on both parties to support a permanent ceasefire and long-term solution based on:
1. full respect of the blue line
2. a area free of any armed personnel, assets and weapons, other than those of the government of Lebanon between the south border and the Litani river.
3. full implementation of the Taif Accords, resolution 1559, and 1680.
4. no foreign forces in Lebanon with out their permission
5. no sales or supply of arms and related material with out Lebanon's permission.
6. maps of land mines in Lebanon to be given to the UN
OP9. Invites the Secretary-Gerneral to try and make it all work.
OP10. Request proposals to make resolutions 1559, 1680 and provisions of the Taif Accords possible.
OP11. Authorizes a maximum of 15,000 UNIFIL troops to carry out 425 and 426
1. monitor the cessation of hostilities
2. accompany and support the Lebanese armed forces as they move south
3. coordination its activities related to PP11
4. assist in humanitarian aid
5. assist Lebanon in implementing PP14
OP12. Allows the Lebanon force and UNIFIL to take any actions necessary to stop any hostile activities...
OP13. Request the Secretary-General to make this all happen
OP14. Calls on Lebanon to secure it's borders
OP15. Calls on Lebanon to stop harboring terrorist!
OP16. Extends the mandates of UNIFIL until 31 August 2007
OP17. Request the Secretary-General to keep everyone updated on what's going on.
OP18. Stresses the importance to achieve peace in the ME.
Thanks for posting that wish list.
from the Counterterrorism Blog.
August 11, 2006
Iran Poised To Be "Mother of All World Threats"
By Walid Phares
I gave an interview to NewsMax.com that reflects my current analysis and predictions for the Middle East. An excerpt follows, and you can see the entire interview here:
For anyone who still thinks the Israeli-Lebanon war is just a border scuffle, one Middle East expert shouts a dire warning: "As soon as a cease fire occurs, the ‘Hezbollah Blitzkrieg' will crumble the ‘Lebanese Republic of Weimar' and install its own ‘Khumeinist Republic' on the Eastern shores of the Mediterranean. The consequences of such a development are far beyond imagination for the region and the world. Hezbollah would have paved the way for Iran to create the mother of all world threats since Hitler."
So cautions Professor Walid Phares, author of "Future Jihad," a visiting fellow with the European Foundation for Democracy in Brussels, and a senior fellow with the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies in Washington, D.C.
In an exclusive interview with NewsMax, the Lebanese-born Phares likens the current Hezbollah offensive in Lebanon to a "putsch" -- with the convoluted aims of reestablishing a pro-Syrian-Iranian regime in Lebanon, reconstructing a third wing to the Tehran-Damascus axis, reanimating the Arab-Israeli conflict, rejuvenating Syrian dominance, isolating Jordan, reaching out to Hamas, crumbling Iraq, and unleashing Iran's nuclear programs.
The author also sees half-measures and premature truces as catalysts to even bloodier future conflicts:
"If Israel takes 40 kilometers [into the southern belly of Lebanon] and sits, Hezbollah and its allies will take the rest of the country and eliminate the Cedars Revolution [the Lebanese Democracy movement]. That is a certainty. Then the two camps will clash in a wider war in few more months."
As a corollary, however, the expert advises that if Israel gets even more aggressive and moves instead through the Bekaa (a fertile valley in Lebanon and Syria, located about 19 miles east of Beirut), it would shut down the Syrian-Lebanese borders (a major supply line for war materials flowing to Hezbollah)....
The long story short, says the expert: Syria, Iran and Hezbollah outmaneuvered the Lebanese politicians, as well as the West, by among other things keeping pro-Syrian Emile Jamil Lahoud, president of the Republic of Lebanon at the helm.
"It was terrible how the Lebanese politicians lost all the opportunities provided by the Cedars Revolution," laments Phares, "but it is worse that the bureaucrats in the U.S. and Europe didn't understand what Hezbollah was doing."
August 11, 2006 06:35 PM
This guy is a certifiable wack job. Talking about giving more land while the land they already gave back is a staging ground for terrorist attacks against his country! Where is Bibi when he's needed most!
That's a summary of the draft resolution. The actual text is here: http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/08/11/un.draft/index.html
If they can't have an urgent vote of no confidence, then I fear a coup is something to be strongly considered. Israel can't afford to drift leaderless right now. It wouldn't be so bad... Israel will not become a dictatorship... it will be bloodless and temporary.
PP5 and OP3 are deal breakers in and of themselves, much less OP8.
The Lebanese government will never be able to accomplish any much less all of them, multinational force or not., imo.
If only that could have happened at least a couple of years ago. Rummy at Defense, Bolton at State. That could have been a chance for real reform.
I support you. I hope that he will become the next PM and show Olmert how to deal with terrorists.
This guy was not afraid to take on the likes of Hezbollah. The only reason he got voted out was because of Sharon and his backdoor pandering to the "land for peace" beatniks.
I agree, the present does echo 1938.
It seems like Prime Minister Ehud Olmert was looking for ANY opportunity to not fight. He may have been surprised when the US did not ask Israel to stop (Can't blame the US). Then he tried the air war, but an air war does not win wars. Even Gulf War 1 needed a ground war to achieve victory.
He tried to play both sides of the war issue (hawk and dove) and in the end he made Israel look weak. Everything he did was half-measures.
Iran just won. I hope Olmert will be taken down in a no confidence vote. This is a disaster. Next time, and there will be a next time, Hezbollah will have rockets that reach beyond Tel Aviv and likely will be equipped with WMD. President Rat Face of Iran just got stronger. Olmert is a fool.
There it is, right there.
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