Running the numbers on a Lieberman-Lamont-Schlesinger race

NRO ^ | 8/9/2006 | Jim Geraghty

[Jameison]

Yesterday I wrote, "For what it's worth - and it's not much - my guess/prediction in today's Democratic Senate primary is Ned Lamont by a small margin - say, 51-49 or 52-48." With 98 percent of the precincts reporting, it's Lamont 51.79 percent, Lieberman 48.21 percent. Feeling my oats, I'm now going to predict that between now and Election Day you're going to see polls showing Lamont up big. And yet, he's doomed.

Let's do some math. According to state records, Connecticut has 1.95 million active registered voters as of last year, of whom 653,055 were registered as Democrats, about 33.4 percent. Registered Republicans amount to 427,803, or 21.9 percent, and unaffiliated voters number the largest chunk, 867,761, about 44.4 percent.

Last night, Lamont got a bit more than half of the Democrats to vote for him. His supporters will contend that Democrats will abandon Lieberman in droves. (I'm somewhat skeptical - if you're motivated enough to show up on primary day and vote for him against Lamont in August, either because you really like Lieberman or because you really don't like Lamont, what will change your mind in the 90 days until Election Day?)

Let's give Lamont just about the best case scenario. (For the sake of this exercise assuming turnout will be roughly equal percentage turnout rate among Democrats, Republicans, and unaffiliated. If anyone has a plausible argument that one of these groups won't show up on Election Day, let me know.) Let's say a significant number of Lieberman supporters abandon him now that he's an independent. Let's say about 20 percent, and let's assume that they all decide to support Lamont.

That gives Lamont just under 60 percent of the Democratic vote, about 20 percent of the electorate. Lieberman is left with just over 40 percent of the Democratic vote, about 13.3 percent of the electorate.

Now let's be really generous regarding the unaffiliated. Let's assume that 45 percent of the unaffiliated support the Democratic nominee, Lamont. (I think this is generous, since Lamont's argument is that he's a true-blue Democrat, less independent and less centrist.) This gives him another 19.9 percent of the total electorate. Let's give Lieberman, who's always done well among this group, 55 percent, and let's assume the Republican candidate, Alan Schlesinger, gets none, giving Joe 24.4 percent of the electorate. (Yes, I'm underestimating independent/noaffiliated support for Schlesinger, but probably not by much.)

This brings us to a 39.9 percent to 37.7 percent lead of Lamont over Lieberman. Joe would need to make up that 2.2 percent from among the 21 percent of the state voters who are registered Republicans. In other words, Lieberman would need to carry about 10.4 percent of the state's GOP voters to eke out a win (and presuming that Lamont does not get any significant support from Connecticut Republicans).

I imagine Joe can win 10.4 percent of Republicans in his sleep. Earlier in the year, 75 percent of Connecticut Republicans were willing to give Lieberman another term.

To win the Senate race, Lamont needs either a) more than 20 percent of Lieberman's supporters to abandon him and switch to Lamont b) more than 45 percent of unaffiliated voters to support him or c) less than 11 percent of Republicans to vote for Lieberman. I suppose yesterday's results show that things can change quickly, but right now those scenarios look awfully unlikely.

[danamco]

As if Lamont won't be even more liberal with the added distinction of being anti-defense. Use your head, it's either the pro-defense Lieberman or the anti-defense Lamont. Choose wisely.

I can't vote there anyway! Like Rush says:"A tiger is a tiger" and "a liberal is a liberal"!!

It's like saying "my wife i just a little bit pregnant"!!!

Apart for Joe's stand on Homeland Security, he still is a liberal turncoat!??!

[driftless2]

"liberal turncoat"

Is that your point? So if a politician other than Lieberman leaves the Democrats to officially join the Republicans, he would then also be a "turncoat" ??!!?? I'm at a loss to understand your and the other anti-Lieberman posters positions. If he does not run in November as an independent, Lamont will certainly win. Let me repeat: THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE HAS NO CHANCE!!!! Why in the world would you want a peacenik liberal like Lamont to win? Answer me that please.

[justiceseeker93]

I predict Lieberman will win, and announce a party change to the GOP the day the new Congress is sworn in.

Yes, he could win, but a party change is highly unlikely. He had the last year or two to switch parties, with many Republicans saying good things about him and people in his own party showing contempt. But he hasn't availed himself of the opportunity until now, which probably signals that he's not going to do so at all.

[danamco]

"liberal turncoat"

Is that your point? So if a politician other than Lieberman leaves the Democrats to officially join the Republicans, he would then also be a "turncoat" ??!!?? I'm at a loss to understand your and the other anti-Lieberman posters positions.

Turncoat??? Remember in 2000 when gore picked loserman as vp candidate, he left all his previous religious beliefs at home and cozy-ing very much up to the hollywood left crowd???

[driftless2]

Life is many times a choice between bad and worse. I disagree with Joe Lieberman on just about every domestic issue you can think of. But in the war on Islamo-fascism, Joe gets it. Lamont is a Neville Chamberlain-style appeaser. So therefor it is no choice. We must support Lieberman.