Posted on 08/03/2006 12:06:33 PM PDT by calcowgirl
So far as Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and his re-election campaign team are concerned, President Bush's middle initial might as well stand for “Who?”
With Bush's popularity near rock bottom and Republicans across the country fearing a shellacking in the Nov. 7 election, Democrats are trying at every turn to tie the Republican governor to the president.
State Treasurer Phil Angelides, the Democratic nominee for governor, routinely rails against “Bush-Schwarzenegger” policies and accuses the governor of complicity with federal actions that don't play well with California voters.
For his part, Schwarzenegger hardly mentions the president's name unless to criticize a Bush administration policy as publicly as possible.
In recent weeks, Schwarzenegger has taken issue with the White House and congressional Republicans over stem cell research, offshore oil drilling, patrolling the border and global warming.
It was global warming that resulted in the photograph of Schwarzenegger and British Prime Minister Tony Blair on Monday agreeing in Long Beach that California and Britain would conduct joint research projects into greenhouse gases and clean-burning fuels.
Even before the joint news conference, Angelides denounced it as a meaningless campaign “photo op.”
“There's nothing solid here, nothing specific that reduces greenhouse gases,” the Democrat said.
Whatever the substance of the agreement, the image was one seen around the world, seeming to show Schwarzenegger conducting international summitry almost as if he were the president.
“He did everything he could to look internationally potent and as far away from Bush as possible,” said Barbara O'Connor, director of the Institute for the Study of Politics and Media at California State University Sacramento. “It was a coup.”
Earlier that day, Schwarzenegger administration officials told reporters that the event should not be interpreted as the governor making an end run around the Bush administration. The governor did not follow the script.
“We see that there is not great leadership from the federal government when it comes to protecting the environment. We know there is global warming, so we should stop it,” Schwarzenegger said with a smiling Blair at his side.
There may be a heavy element of theatrics in all of this, but they're potentially critical theatrics.
A recent statewide poll conducted by the Survey and Policy Research Institute at San Jose State University showed a strong correlation between voters' approval of Bush and their preference in the contest for governor.
Voters who said they thought Bush was doing a good job favored Schwarzenegger over Angelides 75 percent to 10 percent. Voters who disapproved of the job Bush was doing preferred Angelides 53 percent to 27 percent.
“People who are really not happy with Bush are even less likely to vote for Schwarzenegger,” said Melinda Jackson, a professor of political science at San Jose State.
“The more Schwarzenegger is tied to Bush in the voters' minds, the worse it is for him. The more he can distance himself from the president, the better it is for him.”
Just yesterday, the governor sent a letter to Bush urging greater assistance in helping low-income Californians pay rising utility bills during this record-hot summer. The implication is that California's allotment for such funds – from a program run by the Bush administration – falls short. The letter is co-authored not by another prominent Republican but Sen. Dianne Feinstein, a Democrat who has a favorable image among 60 percent of likely California voters, according to a Field Poll released today.
The Angelides campaign has had difficulty gaining traction since the June primary. But Democrats predict an anti-Republican backlash fueled by Bush's unpopularity, the war in Iraq and rising gas prices will sweep Schwarzenegger out of the governor's office.
“Only a completely blind Republican would deny there's a potential tsunami against the Republicans this fall,” said Bob Mulholland, senior adviser to the Angelides campaign. “If you look at his attempted positionings over the last few weeks, clearly he's worried about it.”
Not everybody in the Angelides camp is as bullish on the Bush backlash potential.
“I don't have as much faith in that tsunami as Bob does,” said Angelides media consultant Bill Carrick. “I think we have to create our own tsunami. But it will be a bad year for Republicans.”
Republican strategist Dan Schnur recalled how Republican hopes for a similar dynamic were dashed in 1998 when he was an adviser to Dan Lungren, the Republican nominee for governor who was trounced by Democrat Gray Davis.
“I'm one of the guys who spent the fall of 1998 trying to tie Gray Davis to the Lewinsky scandal,” he said. “It didn't work then and it's hard to see it working now.”
Political scientists say that governor's races are typically driven by state issues and far less subject to national partisan trends than races for Congress.
“It's something to watch, but it's possible that Schwarzenegger could escape most of the damage if there is a Democratic tsunami,” said Jack Pitney, a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College. “Voting for governor is different. Nationwide, you see a fair number of Republican governors in Democratic states and Republican governors in Democratic states.”
Garry South, a critic of Angelides who directed state Controller Steve Westly's campaign for the Democratic nomination, denounced the anti-Bush strategy as “ludicrous.” He said that voters are well aware of Schwarzenegger's differences with Bush on abortion, gun control, gay rights and environmental policy.
“Bush is not going to be helpful to Arnold Schwarzenegger in California, but it's not for the reason that Angelides thinks,” South said. “It's not that Californians are so stupid that they're going to confuse Arnold Schwarzenegger with George Bush. It's that the Republican base is demoralized.”
Matthew Dowd, chief strategist for the Schwarzenegger re-election campaign, said he's mindful of the potential anti-Republican tide, but not overly worried about it.
Although Dowd was a top adviser to Bush's 2004 re-election campaign and still counts himself a Bush loyalist, he is more than willing to help Schwarzenegger distance himself from the president.
“When the opportunity presents itself to show he's an independent leader, we're fine with that,” Dowd said. “In California, they respect that.”
Did you vote for Bush? Bush has lied about enforcing the border since he ran in 2000. He smeared the Minute Men as vigilantes while in Mexico. All he wants is amnesty.
Arnold's put national guard on the border of CA & Mexico, he dared to speak positively about the Minute Men (although some say he slammed them as racists recently--I have a different read on what he said), he's getting more federal dollars to reimburse CA, he frequently demands the feds do their job at the border, he's continued to veto driver's licenses for illegals. Yes he wants a "temporary guest worker program" because it's good for CA's agricultural business.
The important thing is this election is a zero-sum game. If you don't vote for Arnold it is giving Angelides one freebie towards becoming governor. There's no point is helping the greater of two evils get elected.
Only in the world if extremes and straw-men must environmental policy, including efforts to curb so-called 'global warming' contributors, be anti-business.
His is a call to innovation. Innovation is *good* for business.
I've no problem with the idea of global warming as a possibility only that it's (primarily) man-caused. Still, efforts to clean up pollution are not a bad thing.
Jim Jeffords can WIN! He's ONLY bashing Bush cuz it makes him more ELECTABLE in Vermont. Rest assured, Jeffords WILL be on our side when it counts!
There are only TWO choices in 2000: REPUBLICAN Jim Jeffords or Democrat Ed Flanagan. Flanagan is pro-choice, pro-gay marriage, anti-gun, envirowacko, big spending Bush basher (well okay...so is Jeffords, but he has an "R" next to his name so that makes it OKAY. Besides, Jeffords voted for the Bush tax cut when he was virtually forced at gunpoint to do so, so nah)
If you're not FOR Jeffords, you MUST be a Flanagan supporter. How is it "conservative" to support a commie like Flanagan?
Go back to DU, Jeffords haters!
Where you been Billy? We're gettin' to like you in this parts.
Ok Mr. kumbaya, do tell. How should we "curb" global warming to suit Arnold's tastes and not hurt business. Tell us exactly which steps to take.
Dan--did you see the Team Arnold email today? Just win baby! Winning is the best thing for California!
"What made me win and become governor of the great state of California was because volunteers helped us. I never have been able to accomplish anything in life without a lot of help. And since I’ve come into office I’m very happy that we have been able to do so many things that we have promised . . .So we want to go and stay in there another four years to really straighten out the mess once and for all and rebuild the California for a great future. And of course this is why we need the volunteers and we need people that are very good volunteers and that are great leaders, that are out there to put up the yard signs and to make the phone calls, to knock on doors, to raise money, to recruit other volunteers and all of those kind of things that is extremely important. And the kind of people that we are basically looking for is - people with leadership, the proud people, tough people, bold people, committed people, passionate people, and people who just are really into winning. People who want to win and people who want to win because that is the best thing for the people of California."
Great catch. I've said before that for a certain segment of the electorate, it's no different than cheering for your hometown baseball team. Winning is all that matters. There's no uncomfortable ideology in baseball. It doesn't matter if they trade away the bullpen for a lead-off hitter. It doesn't matter if they go from a pitching team to a hitting and base running team. As long as our team wins.
There are many Freepers from all over the country who stray onto our heated California threads with that "Yeah, go get em Arnold..he's our guy...he checked the R on his voter registration card...he's on our team...." attitude.
As someone said here yesterday, are we going to trade for Gray Davis next year? Are we going to be expected to cheer for him because he's on our team now?
yes, Arnie did some good things - in the beginning. But as the election nears, he is becoming more and more like Bush. He is now against Prop. 187 and has done an about face on the core issues he ran on.
I'm sick and tired of voting for the 'lesser of 2 evils'. I don't see how the Senate and the WH could have done any worse than democrats w/r illegal immigration. (I will give the House credit for actually representing their constituents.)
If a candidate wants my vote, they will have to start pandering to me. And represent my values. You might consider it throwing a vote away (I thought this way myself until W and the Senate started shoving amnesty down our throats.) I consider it my only way to show my disgust. If enough of the real conservatives do this long enough, either the GOP will change or a conservative 3rd party will emerge. Standing for the status quo got us in the mess we're in now (ie., 20+ million illegals).
He has driven his Governorship to the point of diminishing returns for right thinking Californians!!!
I refuse to vote for another political hermaphrodite, now, or in the future!!! Screw that!!!
Well, Socrates, I learn something new every day!
Did you know that the new PC term for "hermaphrodite" is "intersexual"?
Lessee now... We got's hetro and homosexuals, metro and ruralsexuals, and last, but not least... "intersexuals!"
Actually, I think they should all just become "intrasexuals!" (if you know what I mean)
Oh! Thanks for relating me in any small way to Socrates. Instead of the "rythm method," I prefer the "Socratic Method!" (pursuasion through leading questions)
Actually, I'm starting to see articles comparing Antonio to Arnold--calling them both "moderate" politicians. Just win, baby! Antonio (R) 2006!
Seriously, everytime I get one of these campaign emails, I usually gag. Either they are touting all of the social or environmental programs that he supports or they are just plain juvenile and absent any level of intelligent thought.
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