Iranian general: We will soon carry out large military exercise
The serving Iranian General Commander of the Iranian Army, General Muhamad-Reza Ashtiani said, "In the coming days Iran will initiate a large military exercise." This was reported the Iranian news agency Mehr.
In a press conference the general announced that 12 divisions of the land forces will participate in the exercise and that it also include joint exercise of the land, sea, and air forces. During the exercise, that Iranian army will test new weapons and ammunition.
A classical tactic is to stage numerous 'war games' to the point where they seem 'routine'. And spring board off and execute an attack. Egypt and Syria used this to their advantage in the 1973 war against Israel.
Currently there is a lot of shia related disruption of life in Bagdad and Iraq in general. With the recent 'victory' of Hezbollah (a shia outgrowth), Iran may feel that conditions are ripe to conduct a premptive strike on US and Israel to permit unrestricted development of a nuclear capability.
Just a WAG, but a stratigic strike against Israel, in political disarray after the recent fighting, followed up by a ground assault by Syria (who's been removing mines along the Golan Border) and increased Hezbollah activity to pin the Regular IDF forces in place (remember, a large portion of the force used by Israel were Reservists). At the same time, Iran sweeps in and takes control of Iraqi seaports and shuts down the Persian Gulf. The greatest fear is that they may have a nuclear device and choose to use it as well.
I think Israel could handle Syria, since the Air Force would provide adequate interdiction against conventional Syrian forces while IDF ground forces respond, but it could get real ugly fast. If there is a WMD strike against Israel, it is uncertain if Olmert has what it takes to order a counter strike against Syria and / or Iran, given his waffling on Hezbollah. It may be this reluctance and indecision that they are going to count on.
The situation in Iraq would also be touchy. A shia uprising and (temporary) control of the Gulf would make matters difficult for the US and Gulf allies. We do have an abundance of carriers in the Pacific, but it would take a week or more for them to respond. In the mean time Iraq could become quite chaotic. IIRC, one of the key Majhd sites is in Iraq and with Iran's apolyptic leadership could tie that in as well.
Hopefully I'm over reacting, but the way things have been developing it is better to be over prepared than under.
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/281443_terminal17ww.html?source=rss
'Port terminal evacuated
Bomb squads are responding to Terminal 18 on Seattle's waterfront after a canine bomb team found possible explosives in a container'
Thank you Godzilla
I apprciate your thoughts on this subjcect.
My primary focus: IRAN.
Definitely better to over prepared.