Turks Massing on Iraq Border

Strategy Page ^ | July 24, 2006 | Strategy Page/Aaron Glantz/Daniel Pipes

[managusta]

It appears Turkey is preparing to conduct a larger anti-PKK operation in northern Iraq.

The Turkish government told the US that (paraphrasing) "Turkey will decide (not the US)" if Turkish troops enter Iraq in force." Turkish intelligence consistently reports that from 4000 to 5000 PKK guerrillas are operating from bases inside northern Iraq.

In April 2006 Aaron Glantz wrote that the Turkish government had sent an additional 40,000 troops to southeastern Anatolia, bringing the total troops stationed near the Iraqi border to an estimated 250,000 (close to double the number of U.S. forces in Iraq).

Daniel Pipes reports " Turkish officials signaled Tuesday [July 18] they are prepared to send the army into northern Iraq if U.S. and Iraqi forces do not take steps to combat Turkish Kurdish guerrillas there — a move that could put Turkey on a collision course with the United States.

Turkey is facing increasing domestic pressure to act after 15 soldiers, police and guards were killed fighting the guerrillas in southeastern Turkey in the past week. "The government is really in a bind," said Seyfi Tashan, director of the Foreign Policy Institute at Bilkent University in Ankara. "On the one hand, they don't want things to break down with the United States. On the other hand, the public is crying for action."

Diplomats and experts cautioned the increasingly aggressive Turkish statements were likely aimed at calming public anger and pressing the U.S. and Iraq to act against the Turkish Kurdish guerrillas. But they also said Turkish politicians and military officers could act if nothing is done. …

Turkey's NTV television and Hürriyet newspaper reported the government has told the military to draw up plans for a push into northern Iraq and to advise on the possibilities such an incursion could lead to a clash with Iraqi Kurds or U.S. troops. Any operation was unlikely before the end of August, when the current military chief of staff is replaced by an officer widely regarded as a hard-liner, NTV said. …

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan appeared to confirm reports that the military was ordered to draft plans when he said Tuesday: "We know how to take care of (terrorism) on our own... Our competent units are making preparations and will continue to do so." Erdoman's spokesman, Akif Beki, refused to comment, but referred to a statement Monday by government spokesman Cemil Çicek. Çicek called on Iraqi and U.S. forces to take stronger action against the rebels and warned that if they did not, "Turkey is going to use its international rights until the very end."

Zaman. com states that "Beyond that, even an invasion is possible. Before Rice's visit, the commander of Turkey's armed forces, Gen. Hilmi Özkök, was asked if his military would ask for permission from Washington before crossing the border into Iraq.

"We cannot make a decision of that kind based on the USA," he said. "Every country is sovereign. Every country makes its own decisions. If the conditions change, you act by the changing conditions."

[RunningWolf]

The Turks know they are putting the US in a very difficult position. We cannot be sending our troops against Turkish troops

I was leaning toward that direction also. It is not the military might that is the driver in the Turk equation, but they are an ally to varying degrees. So it would be disastrous to engage the Turks militarily to oppose their incursion into Iraq. In effect the hands are tied somewhat for the US.

I was thinking along the same lines for the Russian factor also, it is not the huge edge we have on the battlefield that is the driver, but the what greater consequences may arise if they also come into the arena and we oppose them militarily. Once again our hands are tied to a degree.

Remember when Russia rolled a division into Bosnia, or was it Kosovo?

RW

[RunningWolf]

I was not thinking along the lines that a Russian incursion into Iraq would necessarily lead to a direct US Soviet confrontation, indeed it may not for our hands may be tied to a degree if they do. Are we going to bomb their troops and shoot their airplanes down?? I don't think so.

As far as Russia not having a common border with Iraq, I know that. They could still (hypothecitally) mount air-land operations and possibly make a run across Northern Iran into Iraq (from the Caspian Sea).

I am not saying it will happen, just bringing it up as yet another un-predictable variable, for many times nations try to take advantage in the chaos of war to expand their interests.

What say you?

RW.

[RunningWolf]

Perhaps, I do not know though. What do you think as to the Turk issue in this regional conflict?

RW

[ProudVet77]

Between you and I, W has Putin in his hip pocket.
Think of all the chances Putin could have put his thumb in our eye. He has always backed off.
Putin has a very sick Russia to fix first before any adventures into other countries. Their army is in total shambles. Their Navy is an embarrassment, just one of our fleets have more power then their entire navy.
Air Force? F-22 vs what?
With every year we outgrow the Russian forces by 5x or more. Putin knows it.

[Seadog Bytes]

RE: ...the Turkish government had sent an additional 40,000 troops to southeastern Anatolia, bringing the total troops stationed near the Iraqi border to an estimated 250,000 (close to double the number of U.S. forces in Iraq)

Perhaps they need more encouragement...?

[SunkenCiv]

:') The Turkish army's strength is approximately 600,000, so this mustering is something close to half of their national forces.

[Old_Mil]

They're using Israeli logic; but who - or what - are the PPK?

[RunningWolf]

Their army is in total shambles. Their Navy is an embarrassment,, Putin has a very sick Russia to fix first before any adventures into other countries

Good points,

If Putin can see that, what then have they been feeding to Iran's Ahmadinejad? His threat of the nuclear sabre has not worked out for him quiet as he planned, has it?

RW

[Prophet in the wilderness]

All I can say, for none of us really knows the future, only God knows and holds the future.
The Bible tells us that it is God who rules, and directs the affairs of men, and directs time, not us.
So in respect to that comment, I put my trust in God and put this is in God's hand of sovereignty, and God's providence.
I can only make a feeble finite guess that this is God's way of protecting Israel.
Remember just about a week ago few were worried in that once Israel starts having war with the Mooslins, that those in Iraq will rise up and make trouble in Iraq and the middle east, and Israel.
So, this could be God's hand in keeping those trouble makers in Iraq busy.

[ffusco]

Christians. But I like where your going with it!

[Marine_Uncle]

Your comments obviously bolster what a number of us must be thinking. This situation is very touchy to say the least. So many factors must be carefully examined before any form of action can be initiated. Surely the US and Turkey are confering over the issue for the past few years.
I continue to think that with the Russian's gas/oil industry being as it has now developed into a key player, and of course controlled by Moscow, the Turks are put in a position of using the US and Russians for their gain.
We have clearly seen, Turkey has not shown it's allegience to the NATO community as well as to the US in particular.
The thumbs down by the European community to allow them access into the EU, most likely has soured their enthusiasm with dealing directly with the "west".
This centuries long struggle between tribal/cultures in the Turkish/Syrian/Iraqi border areas puts Turkey in a position to wheel and deal, with little fear of losing either politically or materially. They sense they can be in the driver seat for a while.
The little I have read in the past year or so regarding their desires to do business (commercial enterprises) with Iraq's northern provinces is one ace they hold in their deck.
Grant one the ongoing issue regarding tribal problems may fester leading to aggravated border clashes with minor intervention from the Turkish forces on the north and Iraqi forces on the southern side of the line, I tend to think the long term establishment of good relations between these two countries with the mind of economic gain, shall prevent any serious military actions coming to past.
Now that Iraq has become somewhat democratized and is actually working with the US and coalition, the Turks may just not want to screw up the conditions that can eventually lead to them making big money in the way of joint Iraqi/Turkish business ventures.
I'll leave us with the following question that obviously will go unresolved for the time being. How serious is Iraq into becoming a NATO member.

[Prost1]

1st, the logic of Europeans displacing indigenous peoples is very overworked. It is estimated that fewer than 500,000 people inhabited all of the current U.S. when the colonies were being established. The native peoples population both grew as a result of trade and horses and diminished as a result of war and disease.

The Turks, on the other hand, came to large towns and cities and slaughtered the people. They built pyramids of skulls to warn others not to resist. They built cruel and viscous means to torturing and killing not replicated except by Catholic Europe.

Your statement: "The Visigoths and Franks took control over the Roman peoples of Hispania and Gaul." Omits that Karl der Grosse and Alaric accomplished much by Treaty, negotiations and threat of force and only in his battles against the Saxons and muslims were large numbers killed.

So, IMO, there is no comparison.

[RightWhale]

It's all over the news so it wouldn't hurt to mention that the Stryker Brigade that was supposed to be coming home to Fairbanks has been extended in Baghdad another four months. They were practically boarding their flights home already, and Fairbanks had some parades and picnics set up to welcome them home.

[null and void]

I'm soo sick of all this tribal oggah-boogah crap in the middle east. If they gave a homeland to every damn tribe in the middle east with a gripe, their would be over 20000 countries.

This is bad because???

[Marine_Uncle]

They sure could have used a break. They operated magnifanctly in the northern provinces such as in Tal Afar and Mosul earlier on. I still remember some of the stories Michael Yon had written about their heroic actions last year.