Turks Massing on Iraq Border

Strategy Page ^ | July 24, 2006 | Strategy Page/Aaron Glantz/Daniel Pipes

[managusta]

It appears Turkey is preparing to conduct a larger anti-PKK operation in northern Iraq.

The Turkish government told the US that (paraphrasing) "Turkey will decide (not the US)" if Turkish troops enter Iraq in force." Turkish intelligence consistently reports that from 4000 to 5000 PKK guerrillas are operating from bases inside northern Iraq.

In April 2006 Aaron Glantz wrote that the Turkish government had sent an additional 40,000 troops to southeastern Anatolia, bringing the total troops stationed near the Iraqi border to an estimated 250,000 (close to double the number of U.S. forces in Iraq).

Daniel Pipes reports " Turkish officials signaled Tuesday [July 18] they are prepared to send the army into northern Iraq if U.S. and Iraqi forces do not take steps to combat Turkish Kurdish guerrillas there — a move that could put Turkey on a collision course with the United States.

Turkey is facing increasing domestic pressure to act after 15 soldiers, police and guards were killed fighting the guerrillas in southeastern Turkey in the past week. "The government is really in a bind," said Seyfi Tashan, director of the Foreign Policy Institute at Bilkent University in Ankara. "On the one hand, they don't want things to break down with the United States. On the other hand, the public is crying for action."

Diplomats and experts cautioned the increasingly aggressive Turkish statements were likely aimed at calming public anger and pressing the U.S. and Iraq to act against the Turkish Kurdish guerrillas. But they also said Turkish politicians and military officers could act if nothing is done. …

Turkey's NTV television and Hürriyet newspaper reported the government has told the military to draw up plans for a push into northern Iraq and to advise on the possibilities such an incursion could lead to a clash with Iraqi Kurds or U.S. troops. Any operation was unlikely before the end of August, when the current military chief of staff is replaced by an officer widely regarded as a hard-liner, NTV said. …

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan appeared to confirm reports that the military was ordered to draft plans when he said Tuesday: "We know how to take care of (terrorism) on our own... Our competent units are making preparations and will continue to do so." Erdoman's spokesman, Akif Beki, refused to comment, but referred to a statement Monday by government spokesman Cemil Çicek. Çicek called on Iraqi and U.S. forces to take stronger action against the rebels and warned that if they did not, "Turkey is going to use its international rights until the very end."

Zaman. com states that "Beyond that, even an invasion is possible. Before Rice's visit, the commander of Turkey's armed forces, Gen. Hilmi Özkök, was asked if his military would ask for permission from Washington before crossing the border into Iraq.

"We cannot make a decision of that kind based on the USA," he said. "Every country is sovereign. Every country makes its own decisions. If the conditions change, you act by the changing conditions."

[GregB]

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[xzins]

That is the range of the Kurds. The only way it will ever happen is if all those nations side against Israel, lose miserably, and Israel reestablishes boundaries.

[markomalley]

The Treaties of Lausanne and Sevres do not serve the interests of the United States and should be abrogated.

First, the treaty of Sevres was superceded by Lausanne, so your wish has come true in that regard.

Second, the US is not even a signatory to the Treaty of Lausanne. The signatories were:

HIS MAJESTY THE KING OF THE UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND IRELAND AND OF THE BRITISH DOMINIONS BEYOND THE SEAS, EMPEROR OF INDIA:
The Right Honourable Sir Horace George Montagu Rumbold, Baronet, G.C.M.G., High Commissioner at Constantinople;

THE PRESIDENT OF THE FRENCH REPUBLIC:
General Maurice Pelle, Ambassador of France, High Com missioner of the Republic in the East, Grand Officer of the National Order of the Legion of Honour;

HIS MAJESTY THE KING OF ITALY:
The Honourable Marquis Camillo Garroni, Senator of the Kingdom, Ambassador of Italy, High Commissioner at Constantinople, Grand Cross of the Orders of Saints Maurice and Lazarus, and of the Crown of Italy;
M. Giulio Cesare Montagna, Envoy Extraordinary and Minister Plenipotentiary at Athens, Commander of the Orders of Saints Maurice and Lazarus, Grand Officer of the Crown of Italy;

HIS MAJESTY THE EMPEROR OF JAPAN:
Mr. Kentaro Otchiai, Jusammi, First Class of the Order of the Rising Sun, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary at Rome;

HIS MAJESTY THE KING OF THE HELLENES:
M. Eleftherios K. Veniselos, formerly President of the Council of Ministers, Grand Cross of the Order of the Saviour; M. Demetrios Caclamanos, Minister Plenipotentiary at London, Commander of the Order of the Saviour;

HIS MAJESTY THE KING OF ROUMANIA:
M. Constantine I. Diamandy, Minister Plenipotentiary;
M. Constantine Contzesco, Minister Plenipotentiary;

HIS MAJESTY THE KING OF THE SERBS, THE CROATS AND THE SLOVENES:
Dr. Miloutine Yovanovitch, Envoy Extraordinary and Minister Plenipotentiary at Berne;

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE GRAND NATIONAL ASSEMBLY OF TURKEY:
Ismet Pasha, Minister for Foreign Affairs, Deputy for Adrianople;

So, how is the US going to abrogate something she is not a party to in the first place?

[markomalley]

I had read that the Turkish govt. wanted a larger payment or shakedown from Uncle Sam to allow us to use their country to go into Iraq.

We balked at the sum and told the turks to shove it.

That was only part of the story. The French simultaneously promised to sponsor their way into the EU if they stayed out.

Of course, we both know what happens when you trust the French: you get screwed.

So it was one of two ways:

• either the Turks were shaking us down in order to make up for the economic loss they'd feel as the result of helping us (to include a guarantee of being blocked from EU membership)
• OR they were playing one side against the other and ended up with nothing.

Here on FR, it's popular to select the second option. But I think the first option is probably closer to the truth.

[Tallguy]

Almost every single Iraqi Jew was deported from Iraq between 1947 and 1952.

...a major reason why the Israeli intelligence services are so effective incidentally.

[Types_with_Fist]

They have also been among our strongest allies in the Mideast; next to, of course, the Jews.

And we are set to toss them under the bus the same way we will Israel.

[xzins]

I hope we don't type either under the bus.

I was reading the other day of the deportation of Israel (the 10 northern tribes) in the book of Kings, I believe.

It said the Assyrians took them to 4 or 5 places, one of which was among the Medes. The Medes are the modern Kurds.

While I'm sure that all of the MidEast is genetically interwoven, it would be tragic to throw all Israel, and others connected to them historically, under the bus. I think it would rouse the ire of God.

[Types_with_Fist]

It might upset God. But, alas, the stage is set for us to do just that. We had this yesterday:

FOX NEWS
"NABATIYEH, Lebanon — The United States has given Israeli forces between 10 and 14 days to finish dealing Hezbollah “a strategic blow,” a senior Israeli Foreign Ministry official told FOX News, as both Israeli forces and Hezbollah guerrillas continued to volley rockets across the Lebanon-Israel border."

Now, for all our tough talk, it would seem to me that an "anti-terror," "On the hunt," "War on Terror" country would be giving the TERRORISTS deadlines to stop firing missiles at Israel. But, sadly, the only question that will come up at this Rome conference is how to stop Israel from defending itself from terror attacks.

We've also heard how "we can't have a deadline in Iraq because the terrorists would just wait us out." That will not apply, however, to the situation between Israel and Hezbollah.

[Joe Boucher]

Either option means screw the Turks.

[xzins]

Saying 14 days is as illogical as the US giving a withdrawal deadline to the Iraqi insurgents.

The IDF should stay in Lebanon until their mission is complete and not leave a day earlier.

If our state deptmt is truly supporting this, then they support for Israel what they reject for the US.

[Straight Vermonter]

That's awful! But funny.

[Types_with_Fist]

The only reason we would give Israel that deadline is because of pressure of World opinion. I don't know why we'd worry about that. The world hates us anyway. Might as well allow our rhetoric and action to be the same... actually support a nation that fights against terror.

Hezbollah is a good terror organization to fight against. It would go a long way in the WOT if it were destroyed. The least we should do is allow Israel to destroy it. Heck, if we meant anything we said, we'd help them militarily and logistically to destroy it.

[Leatherneck_MT]

And say, Thus saith the Lord GOD; Behold, I am against thee, O Gog, the chief prince of Meshech and Tubal:
Gog Eze 39:1, Rev 20:8
4


And I will turn thee back, and put hooks into thy jaws, and I will bring thee forth, and all thine army, horses and horsemen, all of them clothed with all sorts of armour, even a great company with bucklers and shields, all of them handling swords:
5


Persia, Ethiopia, and Libya with them; all of them with shield and helmet:
6


Gomer, and all his bands; the house of Togarmah of the north quarters, and all his bands: and many people with thee.

[Marine_Uncle]

Aside from the age on cultural difference between them, which is spoken of a bit in the post, the fact remains that Turkey would like very much to expand its economic finger into Iraq.
Turkish business see a lot of good opportunities in establishing commercial ventures with the Iraqi in the northern parts of Iraq and into the traditional Kurdish area.
With Turkey being allied with the US and NATO, and with the understanding the Turks surely did not help us one bit in the invasion of Iraq, perhaps the US will be able to broker some deals between the Iraqi government and the Turks.
At least I would hope so. Obviously it is not just Turkey, but also Syria which has a Kurdish population that is a thorn in their side.
Perhaps deals will go down. The Turks know they are putting the US in a very difficult position. We cannot be sending our troops against Turkish troops. And it really would not make sense in the short term nor long term, IMHO, for such a thing to be allowed to come to past.
The IG can hardly afford just now to be worrying about having to muster it's new army to border areas.
A lot is going to ride on how Iraqi president Talabani deals with the Turkish government in the weeks to come by all looks of things.
To have the new Iraqi army that the US is primarily training to protect it's country to have to fight with the Turkish army, a US NATO allie is not going to go over very well.
The Russians must be observing this very carefully as well as Iran. It could really screw up the US's long term goals in this region, as we can well understand.

[RightWhale]

That would be not only pointless, but disastrous if they start fighting with either the Iraqi army such as it is, or with the Americans. If they head into Iran that could spark the big ME war that many expect one of these days.

[Prophet in the wilderness]

You don't suppose that the Turks might stifle those who may want to go after Israel from Iraq ? in case there is a bigger war between Israel and the rest of the middle east ?

[ffusco]

Return Constantinople to its rightful owners.

[ProudVet77]

"The Russkies could mount an assault from the Caspian Sea & cross the northern part of Iran into Iraq in no time flat, or maybe come thru the Black Sea then Georgia and surrounding nations."

The Russians can't even handle Chechnya.
You think they could mess with Iraq supported by the US?
As to Russian into Iran, they do not even have a common border.
Time to buy a clue Vanna.

[RunningWolf]

Thanks for your input!

[FFIGHTER]

The Romans