[conservative in nyc]

With 76.74%, the Dinosaur has cracked 20%, as projected. Still a less than 1% lead by Calderon:

	Actual	Actual %		Projected (by State)	Projected %
Calderon	11,731,606	37.11%		15,133,394	37.38%
Dinosaur	6,325,822	20.01%		8,317,810	20.55%
Socialist	11,431,713	36.17%		14,322,984	35.38%
New Alliance	310,914	0.98%		397,388	0.98%
Alternative	959,070	3.03%		1,200,532	2.97%
Write-in	233,515	0.74%		306,281	0.76%
Null Votes	616,201	1.95%		805,140	1.99%
Total	31,608,841			40,483,529
Precincts Reporting	100,370
Total Precincts	130,788
PR%	76.74%

[ArmstedFragg]

It appears the big Mexico City Obrador vote has been counted. The non-PAN voters in the rest of the country seem to like PRI to a greater degree than the M.C. voters. The drop in Calderon's share has slowed, and the share increase for Obrador has turned around. I have the feeling we've seen the closest margin, with it hitting .89, and we'll now see it back over one shortly and headed upwards toward your predictions, though I still think it'll be a bit tighter than predicted.

Looks like you're going to hit the PRI prediction right on the nose.