BCS (where I live when not here) will put Calderon waaay over when the votes are counted.
I hope so. There are some people who feel that Obrador would be a sort of Lula-like leftist. But the big difference is that Lula was essentially pre-Chavez, that is, he got in before Chavez consolidated his power and really began sticking his fingers in everything in LatAm. You know more about it since you live there, but from here, it looks to me as if Chavez has been heavily supporting Obrador and wants to be influential in Mexico, even though Obrador now seems to be trying to distance himself from ol Hugo baby.