Posted on 06/30/2006 10:57:33 AM PDT by devane617
What the f do I have to do with Massachusetts, moron?
Anyone remember this?
(CBS/AP) A new poll indicates Senator John Kerry is ahead of President Bush by six percentage points in Florida, with most voters questioning the president's handling of the economy and the war in Iraq.
The poll for The Miami Herald and the St. Petersburg Times said 49 percent of the 800 registered Florida voters surveyed would choose Kerry. It says 43 percent would pick Mr. Bush, while only five percent are undecided.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/03/08/politics/main604738.shtml
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The only poll that matters is on election day! And Bush won FL .......as will Katherine Harris!
BTTT
Bush was down by six in one poll 8 months before the election. Harris is down by THIRTY 4 months before the election.
Can she sink any further? I guess we'll see. Her nearest primary opponent trails her by 20, maybe he'll be able to pull off the upset.
You can trust the lefty ultra liberal Miami Herald which hates Katherine Harris & all Republicans and any poll you choose.
I KNOW from experience in past elections where I have worked with the FL GOP grassroots. I trust them to make Harris our Senator!
BTW what are you doing for the GOP races in NC? I wonder because you seem to expend much time & energy attacking Harris and her supporters on FR.
We support Harris. We don't give a feces if you don't like her. We do care, however, when you bash her for no apparent reason.
>>>>* To defend marriage, as the union between one man and one woman
* To secure our borders
* To abolish the death tax
* To support pro-growth, pro-family tax policies
* To preserve the Second Amendment (Rated "A" by the NRA - Bill Nelson is rated "F")
* To oppose the use of eminent domain by public bodies for the benefit of private entities
* To advocate for the Partial-Birth Abortion Ban Act of 2003
* To stand against amnesty for illegal immigrants
* To reform our onerous tax code
* To give Florida the power to decide when and where off-shore drilling could occur<<
If I were a Floridian, she would get my vote too !
Why should we trust the poll from a Conneticut firm ?
Or Berkeley, or Annenberg, or Yale, etc - - -
- - - about the Voters of Florida ?
Most of these surveys are done with just 500 people interviewed !
Florida has millions of voters !
>>The poll for The Miami Herald and the St. Petersburg Times said 49 percent of the 800 registered Florida voters surveyed would choose Kerry. It says 43 percent would pick Mr. Bush, while only five percent are undecided. <<
Like I said: Most of these surveys are made with only 500(in this case 800) interviewees .
How reliable are such surveys and opinion studies when they are done on less than 1/100 of 1% of the total electorate ?
Most of these surveys are done with just 500 people interviewed !
Florida has millions of voters !
I dunno, from what I've seen all the "Katherine" worshippers use "it's Bush's fault" rhetoric -- whining all day that Bush "hates" Harris and it's all his fault she's running a crappy campaign and her staff keeps leaving. They also repeat the lib Dem talking point that Florida was in the bag for Gore after the election until Harris intervined and single-handily and "handed" Florida to Bush.
You might want to educate yourself. Here's a good place to start:
Sampling - Sampling is the process of selecting units (e.g., people, organizations) from a population of interest so that by studying the sample we may fairly generalize our results back to the population from which they were chosen. Let's begin by covering some of the key terms in sampling like "population" and "sampling frame." Then, because some types of sampling rely upon quantitative models, we'll talk about some of the statistical terms used in sampling. Finally, we'll discuss the major distinction between probability and Nonprobability sampling methods and work through the major types in each.
>>Sampling - Sampling is the process of selecting units (e.g., people, organizations) from a population of interest so that by studying the sample we may fairly generalize our results back to the population from which they were chosen.
<<
You see, that is the problem with your thinking right there, 'generalizing' - - used to be when you generalized a group of people, you called it 'bigotry' or predjudice !
You seek to reduce to mathematical models something as vague and shifting as public opinion .
These surveys are often in the rigid form of 'yes/no' answers .
Human beings are not computers !
The problem with relying on these generaliztions, is that they lead to mental laziness and self-fulfilling prophecies and hasty conclusions .
I have had this conversation before with Fieldmarshaldj .
I do not dismiss these poll's facts, for these surveys can be useful tools- nor am I controlled by them !
OPINION POLLS are not a conclusion, merely an indication of a trend - -
public trends can change over the course of months like quicksilver !
>>Sampling - Sampling is the process of selecting units (e.g., people, organizations) from a population of interest so that by studying the sample we may fairly generalize our results back to the population from which they were chosen. Let's begin by covering some of the key terms in sampling like "population" and "sampling frame." Then, because some types of sampling rely upon quantitative models, we'll talk about some of the statistical terms used in sampling. Finally, we'll discuss the major distinction between probability and Nonprobability sampling methods and work through the major types in each.<<
I checked out the site you posted .
A lot of technogobbledegook !
A survey of 1/100th of 1% of a given population could be very accurate and precise if you are dealing with a population that is homogenous in the field of interest you are studying .
There is very very little homogeneity to the voters of Florida or any other state in America . .
So long as you capture an accurate proportion of each component of a heterogeneous population, sampling is still accurate. Now, the media may distort and impact the number by 5% or so, but not 30%.
I checked out the site you posted. A lot of technogobbledegook!
That "technical gobbledegook" is accepted science. You may not like it, but you'll look a little silly arguing against it. I don't always like gravity, but that doesn't mean I deny its existence.
>>That "technical gobbledegook" is accepted science. You may not like it, but you'll look a little silly arguing against it. I don't always like gravity, but that doesn't mean I deny its existence.<<
INEXACT Science at best !
Law of Gravity is Hard Science
Public Opinion Polling is Soft Science at best !
What is with you, do you have to get the last word ?
This thread was dead, so don't let all this polling talk, go to your head ~ ~ ~
Yes, and that level of "inexactness" is stipulated by the margin of error of each poll. Now, I've allowed that some pollsters may manipulate the data - but the idea that they're manipulating it by 30+ points is laughable.
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