N. Korea: New Taepodong on launch pad (launch as early as this Sunday)

Asahi Shimbun ^ | 06/17/06

[TigerLikesRooster]

New Taepodong on launch pad

06/17/2006

THE ASAHI SHIMBUN

The government Friday played down U.S. intelligence reports suggesting North Korea may be gearing up to launch a new type of intercontinental ballistic missile.

Japanese officials said they had received reports that a Taepodong 2 missile capable of hitting the U.S. West Coast had been set up on a launch pad in Musudanri in Hamgyongbuk-do, a province in the northern part of North Korea.

Some senior officials said it was possible the missile could be launched as early as Sunday. However, others saw the development as another example of North Korea's brinkmanship.

Even so, Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe warned that the move was in violation of the 2002 Pyongyang Declaration in which North Korean leader Kim Jong Il agreed to extend a missile freeze.

Officials said there was no sign that the missile, which was brought to the launch pad this week, had been fueled.

"If a ballistic missile is launched, it would directly affect the security of our nation and would be against the Pyongyang Joint Declaration signed between Japan and North Korea," Abe said Friday.

A senior government official noted that Abe's words constituted "an open warning" to Pyongyang.

North Korea lobbed a Taepodong over Japan in August 1998 that landed in the Pacific Ocean.

Some government officials suggested Pyongyang was adopting a hostile posture in a bid to break the impasse in negotiations with Washington.

Pyongyang has already said it wants to invite Christopher Hill, chief delegate to the six-way talks on North Korea's nuclear ambitions, to Pyongyang.

"It could very well be Pyongyang's strategy to raise tension so that it can bring Washington to a forum of dialogue," said a government source.

Still, officials are monitoring the situation closely. They calculate it would take about 24 hours to fuel the missile, making it ready for launch.(IHT/Asahi: June 17,2006)

[Lonesome in Massachussets]

I'd say the chances are close to 100% that it's a show. It's just a matter of what they intend to show and what they actually do. My guess is they want to put a satellite in low earth orbit, just to "show" they can do it.

Next most likely scenario they send a payload on a long (like 15,000 km) trajectory, again just to show they can do it.

[TigerLikesRooster]

Re #41

Seems your "show" is my "do.":) To me, "show" means that they threaten to launch it and stop it at the last moment, putting out some face-saving excuse.

[panaxanax]

".....If they launch, surgically remove it from the air."

I disagree. It's time we take a firm stand and show our force. Take it out on the launching pad prior to launch. They've already threatened us with an attack on the west coast. Why sit around and wait for it to happen and then launch a counter-strike?

[topher]

But it explains Ronnie's Ray Gun. (Ronald Reagan aka Star Wars).

This post is actually in code (of sorts).

After all, we all know what Clinton's folly was...

And Jimmy Carter the Peanut farmer would have all had us working for peanuts...

Just wish we had a tricky Dicky for a situation like this...

There was an school yard tale I heard circa 1960 that was reversed after Mary Jo and Ted had their plunge from a bridge.

It went something like "Kennedy-Kennedy in the White House, Nixon-Nixon in the doghouse".

Then after Chappaquidick, it went something like:

"Nixon-Nixon in the White House, Kennedy-Kennedy in the dog house..."

I have always liked Ronnie's Ray Gun and that film George Lucas made in the late 70s (Star Wars).

Maybe it is the time for the attack of the clones...

Ah, but what will the future bring...

[Dionysius]

It would be a great Fathers' Day present for me if this thing would explode spectacularly on its launch pad. An indescribably juicy bonus would be if Krazy Kim was inspecting it up close at the time.

[steveegg]

Are they stupid enough to really do this? (Rhetorical question) I guess my question is...what are the odds they WILL do this?

So good it's not worth the vig.

I wonder if that missile might suffer a slight "accident" on the launch pad :-)

[steveegg]

An indescribably juicy bonus would be if Krazy Kim was inspecting it up close at the time.

I guess it's time for a shop accident :-)

[Lonesome in Massachussets]

By the time, they find out that it will threaten U.S. mainland, wouldn't it be too late?

No.

[TigerLikesRooster]

Re #48

How soon could they determine its trajectory upon its launch? Could U.S. shoot it down after booster stage with current capability?

[FreedomNeocon]

Weather they can or cannot hit us (if they tried) is doubtful.

From Shutting Down Hostile ICBMs (MILITARY TECH):

---

While the war on terror has been grabbing a lot of public attention, the United States has quietly been in the process of neutralizing the missile arsenals of China, North Korea, and even Iran. This is probably one of the most important stories concerning the strategic balance, yet one of the least covered.

Prior to the attacks of September 11, 2001, the United States withdrew from the ABM Treaty (which it had signed with Russia in 1972), and began development of a national missile defense system. Research into missile defense had begun in earnest in 1983, but after withdrawing from the ABM Treaty, deployment was possible and became a priority.

The first phase of this deployment has covered the Pacific Rim, specifically with an eye towards neutralizing China's ICBM force. This is understandable, since on two occasions, Chinese generals have been quoted as having threatened to use nuclear weapons against the United States. The Chinese ICBM and SLBM forces are both very small (24 DF-5 ICBMs and 24 JL-1 SLBMs total). China's future plans for their SLBM force will center around two Jin-class SSBNs (the Type 094), each with 16 JL-2 SLBMs. China hopes to get as many as 60 ICBMs by 2010.

The North Korean missile threat is somewhat more different, and easier to deal with. Japan and the United States are both fielding the SM-3 missile, which has already proven it can intercept incoming ballistic missiles. The SM-2, also in use by both the U.S. Navy and the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force, recently carried out a successful intercept of a ballistic missile in the terminal phase. Both Japan and the United States also use land-based Patriot PAC-3 missiles. The result is a multi-layered system that will be able to blunt any North Korean attack.

These systems are not at the point where they can stop every inbound missile. The thing is, they still provide a deterrent against launching attacks – because a country that does decide to launch missiles at the United States or any of its allies protected by a missile defense shield will not know which of its missiles will fail to reach their targets. This uncertainty increases as the United States continues to deploy more ground-based interceptors, and looks into more systems. Ultimately, the uncertainty about the success of an attack created by the deployment of missile defense systems combined with the certainty that an attempted attack will bring a response, will be one of the biggest reasons for a country to decide not to push the button.

– Harold C. Hutchison

[Kakaze]

" I disagree. It's time we take a firm stand and show our force. Take it out on the launching pad prior to launch. They've already threatened us with an attack on the west coast. Why sit around and wait for it to happen and then launch a counter-strike? "

I don't think taking it out of the sky is really a counter strike. I think its a demonstration to those who would attempt, to sneak, a launch at us of our ability to defend ourselves.

Taking it out on the pad, which I agree is tempting, would make us look " The Aggressor' on the world stage.

Jamming that S. O. B. in flight and slamming it down in international water is one heck of a demonstration of our power. Once it's in international airspace and heading toward us or our interest its fair game.

[P.O.E.]

What type o' dong?

(sorry)

[ExSoldier]

except for kim jong himself that is...

Exactly. Remember there was merely an armistice in this conflict. No real end to the war itself...we could go hot in a second. But primarily our role along the DMZ is not to keep the north from attacking south. It's to keep the south from attacking north.

This is a sensitive issue for me. My wife has a close family member still MIA from 1953. He was shot down as a UN Observer on a U.S. bombing mission just six months prior to the end of the war. There was a rare UN commando mission run by a unit codenamed White Tiger who tried to rescue this downed crew and the evidence seems to be that they were decoyed into a communist trap and nearly wiped out. My wife's uncle never came home. Why? He along with several HUNDRED other POWs were kept by the communists for their backgrounds in science. Our government just abandoned them and remains steadfast in denial. Ike knew. Truman Knew. Kennedy knew so did every other President to right now.

[RadioCirca1970]

Wouldn't it be great if it blew up on the launch pad??

That would really bum out the DUmmies and the KOSanostra, it'd probably ruin their Sunday, that their Dear Leader met with failure...

[Lonesome in Massachussets]

A ballistic trajectory is completely determined by position and velocity vectors. Once you have the position and 3-dimensional velocity accurately fixed, you know where it's going. The interceptors in Fort Greely, Alaska, have hyperbolic velocity, if they miss they will escape the earth's graviational field. (Actually, they will become objects in earth crossing solar orbits.) They can win a tail chase with a ballistic missile, although North Korea's geographic location with respect to the U.S. affords much more favorable engagement geometries.

[Excuse_My_Bellicosity]

I see your ding-dong missile and raise you a Minuteman.

[Fitzcarraldo]

The interceptors in Fort Greely, Alaska, have hyperbolic velocity,

What is their maximum velocity, relative to the Earth's center?

[RightWhale]

It would be at least 25,000 mph.

[Lonesome in Massachussets]

That is almost certianly classified. Try the union of concerned scientist website.

[Minutemen]

That would be too cool if we knocked down the "No-Dong" right back on top of his fuzzy little head!