THE AMERICAN WAR ON SCIENCE

Seed Magazine ^ | 1 June 2006 | Christopher Mims

[RKV]

By most objective measures, the United States is the undisputed world leader in science and innovation, whether it's funding for research and development, the number of PhD students it graduates or its share of the world's patents. For the world's wealthiest nation, this is hardly a remarkable feat. What is remarkable is that the US accomplished this with a supply of domestic talent whose skills in math and science are, also according to most objective measures, merely mediocre.

Luckily, in the past, many excellent foreign students have shouldered the load, preferring to come here to study and work than stay in their home countries. This import of talent has been valued at more than $13 billion per year. In US science as a whole, a third of all doctoral students are foreign born; in engineering, the figure is nearly twice that.

At times, our dependence on foreign talent mirrors our dependence on foreign oil. For instance, both are affected by terrorism: New immigration rules implemented in the wake of 9/11 created a backlog at the INS so severe that the number of student visas issued fell by nearly a third from its peak in 2001. If the number of visas issued would have remained flat—though up to that point the number had been trending up—the restrictive new rules mean that in the past five years the US issued 300,000 fewer visas, or the equivalent of an entire year's worth of matriculating foreign-born math and engineering students. Historically, more than half of foreign students who earned their degree in the US remained here to work. Advertisement #

In March of 2003, the house committee on science convened a special meeting to address this growing concern. During the meeting, legislators heard testimony concerning the harsh reality many graduate students and post-doctoral fellows had to contend with: The delay in visa renewals meant that some of these researchers were effectively exiled for months at a time. The committee responded by recommending that overly stringent security requirements be eased. Since then, the situation has improved, and the number of issued visas has begun to rebound.

Unfortunately, relaxing border patrol hasn't totally solved the problem. The supply of foreign students—again, much like crude oil—is affected by demand in other countries. According to the NSF's 2005 National Science and Engineering Indicators report, "Asian locations that have been the source of two-thirds of foreign doctoral candidates in the United States are developing their own [science and technology] infrastructures."

Thanks to newfound wealth and expanding economies, China and India are quickly becoming more attractive places for their homegrown scientists and engineers to stay—or to return to once they have completed US degrees. The number of foreign science and engineering students staying to work in the US peaked in 1996 and has been declining ever since.

Meanwhile, both the percentage of doctoral degrees granted to foreigners and the percentage of scientists in the US who were born elsewhere are at all-time highs, allowing the US to maintain the blistering pace at which it creates new science and engineering jobs. In the past decade alone, the demand for these skill-sets grew at three times the rate of overall civilian employment, to 4.6 million positions.

If we assume that innovation is essential to economic growth, then our entire economy is more dependent than ever on the labors of bright people born elsewhere.

If this supply of foreign minds is threatened, as it appears to be, by a combination of market forces and government blunders, our only alternative is to cultivate a homegrown supply of science professionals. That means tapping high school seniors who are doing worse in science than at any other point in the past decade, according to results from the Dept. of Education's National Assessment of Educational Progress, which was released last week.

Worse, these are not students who were excelling to begin with. In 2003, when the level of science literacy of 15-year-old Americans was contrasted with that of peers in other countries, the US placed 18 out of 28, ahead of Mexico and Turkey but behind the usual superstars in Asia and Europe.

In absolute numbers the two groups of native-born US citizens most likely to go into science and engineering--white males and Asian Americans--have declined over the past 10 years. The number of white females and underrepresented minorities in science has remained relatively flat. All of these trends are projected to continue.

It is possible that American students' accelerating disinterest in science and engineering, coupled with a dwindling supply of foreign replacements, would set up a Peak Oil-type scenario in the US, where demand for these workers continues to grow while supply plateaus and then dwindles.

This would be the part of the story when a strong leader steps up to dangle a carrot in front of a scientifically complacent American populace and prevent such a scenario. Forty-five years ago, on May 25, 1961, with the embarrassment of Sputnik still fresh in the collective memory, President Kennedy did just that, declaring that the US would put a man on the moon inside a decade.

Thus far, President Bush has recognized the problem, responding with the American Competitiveness Initiative (ACI), which includes increased funding for basic research, education and job training. The ACI also further addresses the immigration policies that have bedeviled foreign scientists studying and working in the US.

All of this is admirable, but it comes from a president who consistently demonstrates a disdain for areas of science that disagree with his personal ideology. Again and again, whether it is stem cells or energy policy or global warming or the dubious need to "teach the controversy," Bush has demonstrated that he is, literally, anti-rational—opposed to the assumptions about proof and inquiry without which science would be merely alchemy.

It would be absurd to blame a politician for a nationwide decline in scientific interest, but it stands to reason that a president elected, and then re-elected, must in some way embody the beliefs of the electorate—here, specifically, its prioritization of science.

We have just entered a century that will present unprecedented commercial opportunity in computer science, biotechnology and nanotechnology as well as unimaginable challenges in the form of energy and resource shortages, disease epidemics and climate change. Addressing the root causes of the erosion of our scientific knowledge base should be one of our nation's highest priorities. This is our Sputnik.

[RKV]

Agreed, states have the primary responsibility. Frankly, I wish the Federal Department of Education didn't exist.

[Little Ray]

Oughta close down law schools and liberal arts colleges and put the money in to science and engineering where it serves the interest of the nation and mankind.

[RKV]

"A doctorate would be the ticket." Yep, that's what I tell my kids. Preferably an MD. My son has a shot at it - work ethic, smarts, etc. but he want's to be an engineer. I have tried explaining to him what it's like to be an engineer in an MBA driven corporation. If he goes into engineering I hope he starts his own company.

[PatrickHenry]

WWCMD? (What would Cotton Mather do?)

[RKV]

You wont' get any disagreemnet from me. About all I would add is that we need to do the homework in Jr and Sr High to get the kids ready for science/engineering school in college.

[Wonder Warthog]

"Could it be that by importing labor (increasing supply) that we reduce the rewards for our own citizens to take the long and arduous path to science and engineering excellence?"

Actually, it's about importing CHEAP labor. American scientists and engineers are "too expensive" for American corporations. I've seen too many really top-notch technical employees laid off when they hit 50 (and no, it's NOT because "they've let their skill sets deteriorate"--these were people at the top of their professions). The bean counters want cheap brains (everywhere except in "top management positions").

[NathanR]

Education has TRADITIONALLY been been a local function, not even state.

[RKV]

Interesting you should mention Cotton Mather. Here's a quote from a web biography "He persuaded Zabdiel Boylston to inoculate against smallpox and supported the unpopular inoculation even when his life was threatened." http://www.answers.com/topic/cotton-mather

[VOA]

So your solution to keep American competitive is to keep foreign engineers
out of the country. So, they will do engineering somewhere else.

With all respect, you've totally misread me.
(Honestly, I'm not being snippy...please read on)

What is Tony Snow's comment REALLY about?
About 95% of what he's pushing is the legitimizing of fairly uneducated
folks from Mexico and points south.
Which, from my time in Los Angeles sure seems like a fast-path
to a nation with downward mobility.

I said ABSOLUTELY nothing about stopping an influx of educated,
high-productivity immigrants from ANY point of the globe.

As I've said on other threads, the Republicans should have approached
the Democrats with some modified form of the immigration plan
the Canadians used to let in refugees from the return of Hong Kong
to the Communists.
First, bank $150,000 in a Canadian bank and show you won't be a burden
to Canada...then we'll look at your application.
The modification I'd have in mind would include bringing in real talent
in terms of brain power.
Which we already seem to be doing at the graduate schools I've been around.

[GSlob]

That's the only way to do it. Stream separation ought to be by tests [obvious] with a possibility for the transition between the streams [again, by test results]. So a stupid progeny will have its chance to prove its smarts, if there are any smarts to prove.

[leoncaruthers]

There was a study of incomes for various technical degrees awhile back, and PHd's aren't worth it in any science or engineering field, at least not in terms of strict lifetime earning power. An MS is worth getting, though.

[RKV]

No disagreement. The way out is to own your own company. Speaking as a 49 year old technical manager, I have seen way too much of what you have described.

[dmz]

The drones like the H1Bs because in their minds, all employees are fungible, and hey, here are some cheaper ones.
_______________

As a one time recruiter of IT talent, it is no way my experience that the H1Bers are earning less than Americans in the same jobs.

They are very well aware of the market and the market price.

[bordergal]

Once when I was talking to a local teacher, she made the point that many countries get rid of their less stellar students in the early high school years, and route them into other arenas. Therefore, you've skewed the test in favor of high achievers, whereas in the US we test EVERYONE.

Also remember that Bill Gates was an MIT dropout. Doesn't seem to have hurt him too much.

[Wonder Warthog]

"No disagreement. The way out is to own your own company. Speaking as a 49 year old technical manager, I have seen way too much of what you have described."

Yup. I "was" one of those guys. Now 1/3 owner of a small, high-tech firm designing automated analysis instrumentation (three guys and a garage). We just passed $1 million sales last year, won an R&D 100 award year before last. Our intellectual property is increasing by leaps and bounds.

[Doctor Stochastic]

And science labs take money that could be used for football stadiums.

[Criminal Number 18F]

We need to improve science education in the US.

Unfortunately, that is not a new conclusion. Possibly the best education-reform book I ever read was Education and Freedom, by Hyman G. Rickover. (Yes, that Rickover). Rickover pointed out deficiencies in US technical education and some of the problems which best US education then.

Trouble is, all those problems still exist (and worse) and that book is from 1958 and is practically impossible to find. (I got my copy at a library discards sale). That was almost a half-century ago. To put things in perspective, I was born in 1958 and have already retired from two careers. (I also taught high school for a year).

Take a look at grade school and high school science and math textbooks, which are full of nonsense (especially grade school, where the scientific method ought to be firmly explained as a foundation for all that follows). Written by groups usually selected for race and sex balance rather than scientific knowledge or writing ability, they inject a lot of politically tendentious stuff which has no place in science. That may explain why the writer of this article glumly points out that 17% of Americans are "scientifically literate." (Frankly, I would not put the number that high).

The amazing thing to me is the way that most of the Dewey-dumbed-down drones in the education Gulag dismiss teaching actual facts and formulas: "we're trying to teach them critical thinking. Unfortunately you need a foundation of facts for your critical thinking to stand atop.

History texts (one of my favourite subjects and avocations) have been dumbed down even more. This page reproduces several 1990s Wall Street Journal articles about history texts.

d.o.l.

Criminal Number 18F

[Criminal Number 18F]

I know a company that I can't mention that is in the process of chasing away a guy that literally can't be replaced.

Yeah, narbs. The suits are going, "Hey, that dude in the lab coat is costing us over $300k with bennies, we got some guys here with the same lab coats that will telecommute from Shanghai for $30k max... payroll goes down, the stock goes up and I cash in some options..."

"So you say this guy we have now is more productive.. no problem... we hire three or four of the Chinese guys..."

The funny thing, when The Mythical Man-Month was published, every manager in the country said, "Yeah! Good insights," and put it on his shelf and went back to doing the same damn thing. Along comes Death March, and every manager in the country said, "Yeah! Good insights," and put it on his shelf and went back to doing the same damn thing.

Meanwhile, the R&D goes in the crapper and by the time the stockholders figure out the competition is beating your company like a rented mule, Options Boy is in the Keys on a 50' Beneteau and life is good. For him.

Or worse, he's acquired a new host (to put it, appropriately, in parasitological terms).

I think there should actually be a bounty on MBAs, and double on lawyers.

d.o.l

Criminal Number 18F

[RKV]

Interesting that the man who selected Jimmy Carter as a sub driver had an interest in science education. "you need a foundation of facts for your critical thinking to stand atop." Couldn't agree more. For many people today, technology is like magic. They couldn't be bothered to learn the principles on which it is based.

[RadioAstronomer]

Well stated.

I think this country is in deep trouble and I personally am not hopeful nor do I see any solutions being implemented. Lots of talk though.

SSDD!