Posted on 05/25/2006 7:14:53 PM PDT by MinorityRepublican
Russian President Vladimir Putin has inadvertently spotlighted one of today's momentous mysteries: collapsing birthrates in industrialized countries. Putin proposed that Russia pay women to have children to remedy a "critical" population outlook. Actually, he might have said "desperate." In 2000 Russia's population totaled almost 147 million; Putin says it's declining by 700,000 a year. With plausible assumptions, the U.S. Census Bureau projects it at 111 million in 2050. The median age (half the population above, half below) would be almost 50, up from 38 now. Could this Russia maintain a strong economy, national optimism or a capable military?
Russia's case, though extreme, isn't isolated. There's no more population "explosion." In wealthier countries, motherhood is going out of style and plunging birthrates portend population loss. This is a hugely significant development, even if we don't fully understand the causes -- 30 years ago experts didn't predict it -- or the consequences. One way or another, the side effects will be massive for economics, politics and people's well-being. Indeed, they may already have started. Is it a coincidence that Germany and Italy, two countries on the edge of population decline, are so troubled?
First, some facts. On average, women must have two children for a society to replace itself. The number of children per woman is called the "total fertility rate," or TFR. Here are the estimated 2005 TFRs for some major countries: Germany, 1.4; Greece, 1.3; Italy, 1.3; Japan, 1.4; Spain, 1.3; and Russia, 1.3. Low fertility rates don't instantly lead to population declines. They can be offset by immigration, longer life expectancies and greater numbers of young mothers. But ultimately low fertility rates suggest falling populations. The table below compares the 2005 populations (in millions) for four countries with the Census Bureau projections for 2050.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
It is not exactly the same if you read the rest of the column at their site. But if you have a problem with this. Take it up to the Admin Moderator, I don't really care here. :-D
bookmark
Fyi.
This article seems to indicate there is a certain extent of American exceptionalism when it comes to fertility rates.
Cheers.
Yep and many of the ones that remain are abusive and believe it is their God-given right to keep mistresses. Hence the number of "Beautiful Russian Brides" websites proliferating on the internet.
An excellent point.
"This article seems to indicate there is a certain extent of American exceptionalism when it comes to fertility rates."
There isn't.
The white American fertility rate is 1.8, which is below replacement and below the level of Ireland and some other European countries.
The black American fertility rate is 2.1, which is barely replacement.
The Hispanic American fertility rate is 2.45, which is where the entire natural increase in America is going to come from.
Remember that France has a good fertility rate going now too, but that nobody is impressed by this because it's really immigrant fertility superimposed on low native fertility. Precisely the same thing is happening in America.
White people are universally going extinct, including in America.
IMHO, moden taxation/welfare state....historically one motivating factor for children was to have someone to care for you with aging. Modern taxation interferes with having resources for family, and a welfare state implies no need for worrying about who will care for you with age.
Yep, straight from Madame Blatavshy's seances parlor. Messages from the Brotherhood channeled for totaliarians committed to promoting the dark side.
My girls are doing their part, my sixth grandchild is currently renting a womb.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.