[Michael.SF.]

They should start this year!

They started last two years ago.

The process to expand refining capacity at a refinery is extensive, expensive and time consuming:

Project conception/preliminary analysis --- 3-6 months
Preliminary Engineering --- 5-7 months
Approval --- 3 months
Permitting/Phase I Engineering --- 6 to 12 months
Procurement of long lead items --- 3 to 6 months
Phase II Engineering --- Secondary procurement -- 6 months
Detail Engineering --- 6-9 months
Construction --- 12-18 months
Manufacturing of long lead items --- 12-16 months

Total time from approval to production can be 2.5 to 4 years depending on many variables. Many of these phases may over lap or be spread out among many companies.

I am currently involved in at least 12 major projects that are for expansions at refineries in the USA and Canada. These projects are in various phases as described above, including some in the construction phase.

[kellynla]

Thanks for the info!

[RBroadfoot]

Of course, that schedule assumes that you can get your permits in a timely fashion and that your firm has ready access to a few hundred million dollars. In other words, it's a best-case scenario.

[SAJ]

Fine analysis, and, nearly as I can tell, spot on! Been an energy trader for decades, and as you perfectly well know but some of our colleagues here do not, A) expanding refining capacity simply cannot be done immediately, and B) the time frame for expanding capacity has become more or less totally dependent on politics, not economics.

Best wishes and FReegards!

Psssst...got any unused 'conspiracy' theories that I can sell on e-Bay?...

;^)

[miliantnutcase]

Do you know if Ashland is expanding refining capacities in the midwest?